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Oct 14

MoDES: Accelerating Mixture-of-Experts Multimodal Large Language Models via Dynamic Expert Skipping

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) excel at vision-language tasks, but they suffer from high computational inefficiency. To reduce inference overhead, expert skipping methods have been proposed to deactivate redundant experts based on the current input tokens. However, we find that applying these methods-originally designed for unimodal large language models (LLMs)-to MLLMs results in considerable performance degradation. This is primarily because such methods fail to account for the heterogeneous contributions of experts across MoE layers and modality-specific behaviors of tokens within these layers. Motivated by these findings, we propose MoDES, the first training-free framework that adaptively skips experts to enable efficient and accurate MoE MLLM inference. It incorporates a globally-modulated local gating (GMLG) mechanism that integrates global layer-wise importance into local routing probabilities to accurately estimate per-token expert importance. A dual-modality thresholding (DMT) method is then applied, which processes tokens from each modality separately, to derive the skipping schedule. To set the optimal thresholds, we introduce a frontier search algorithm that exploits monotonicity properties, cutting convergence time from several days to a few hours. Extensive experiments for 3 model series across 13 benchmarks demonstrate that MoDES far outperforms previous approaches. For instance, when skipping 88% experts for Qwen3-VL-MoE-30B-A3B-Instruct, the performance boost is up to 10.67% (97.33% vs. 86.66%). Furthermore, MoDES significantly enhances inference speed, improving the prefilling time by 2.16times and the decoding time by 1.26times.

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 19, 2025

MoDeST: Bridging the Gap between Federated and Decentralized Learning with Decentralized Sampling

Federated and decentralized machine learning leverage end-user devices for privacy-preserving training of models at lower operating costs than within a data center. In a round of Federated Learning (FL), a random sample of participants trains locally, then a central server aggregates the local models to produce a single model for the next round. In a round of Decentralized Learning (DL), all participants train locally and then aggregate with their immediate neighbors, resulting in many local models with residual variance between them. On the one hand, FL's sampling and lower model variance provides lower communication costs and faster convergence. On the other hand, DL removes the need for a central server and distributes the communication costs more evenly amongst nodes, albeit at a larger total communication cost and slower convergence. In this paper, we present MoDeST: Mostly-Consistent Decentralized Sampling Training. MoDeST implements decentralized sampling in which a random subset of nodes is responsible for training and aggregation every round: this provides the benefits of both FL and DL without their traditional drawbacks. Our evaluation of MoDeST on four common learning tasks: (i) confirms convergence as fast as FL, (ii) shows a 3x-14x reduction in communication costs compared to DL, and (iii) demonstrates that MoDeST quickly adapts to nodes joining, leaving, or failing, even when 80% of all nodes become unresponsive.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 27, 2023

MODEST: Multi-Optics Depth-of-Field Stereo Dataset

Training and evaluation of state-of-the-art computer vision algorithms for reliable shallow depth of field (DoF) rendering and defocus deblurring remain constrained by a persistent lack of large-scale, full-frame, high fidelity, real-image datasets. Optical effects of shallow DoF and defocus blur depend intimately on camera optical configuration set with focal length and aperture; requiring rigorous evaluation of the models when these parameters systematically change. Further, modern applications such as AR, VR, smartphones, industrial robots, etc. deploy stereo or multi-camera systems. We present MODEST - the first ultra-high-resolution(5472x3648px, 20MP), multi-optics depth of field stereo DSLR dataset that methodically varies focal length and aperture for a series of complex, real-world scenes, capturing the optical realism and complexity of professional camera systems. With 20,000 images across 50 distinct optical configurations, focal length in 28-70mm, aperture in f/22-f/2.8 for multiple stereo viewpoints for 10 scenes; this ultra-high-resolution, full-range optics coverage enables controlled analysis of geometric and optical effects for shallow DoF rendering and defocus deblurring. Each scene is curated to have challenging visual elements: reflective surfaces, transparent glass walls, fine-grained details, point lights, and multi-scale depth illusions. In addition, we provide intrinsics and extrinsics calibration images to support ever-evolving calibration methods. We evaluate several SOTA DoF and defocus deblurring methods and demonstrate failure cases and limitations. Our comprehensive tuning analysis demonstrates how MODEST evaluates sensitivity of the SOTA DoF models for the actual focal configuration of input images. This work attempts to bridge the realism gap between synthetic, low-resolution training data and inference generalization on high-resolution real-camera optics.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 4

Failure Modes in LLM Systems: A System-Level Taxonomy for Reliable AI Applications

Large language models (LLMs) are being rapidly integrated into decision-support tools, automation workflows, and AI-enabled software systems. However, their behavior in production environments remains poorly understood, and their failure patterns differ fundamentally from those of traditional machine learning models. This paper presents a system-level taxonomy of fifteen hidden failure modes that arise in real-world LLM applications, including multi-step reasoning drift, latent inconsistency, context-boundary degradation, incorrect tool invocation, version drift, and cost-driven performance collapse. Using this taxonomy, we analyze the growing gap in evaluation and monitoring practices: existing benchmarks measure knowledge or reasoning but provide little insight into stability, reproducibility, drift, or workflow integration. We further examine the production challenges associated with deploying LLMs - including observability limitations, cost constraints, and update-induced regressions - and outline high-level design principles for building reliable, maintainable, and cost-aware LLM systems. Finally, we outline high-level design principles for building reliable, maintainable, and cost-aware LLM-based systems. By framing LLM reliability as a system-engineering problem rather than a purely model-centric one, this work provides an analytical foundation for future research on evaluation methodology, AI system robustness, and dependable LLM deployment.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 25, 2025

Quasinormal modes of a Proca field in Schwarzschild-AdS$_5$ spacetime via the isomonodromy method

We consider Proca field perturbations in a five-dimensional Schwarzschild-anti-de Sitter (Schwarzschild-AdS_{5}) black hole geometry. Using the vector spherical harmonic (VSH) method, we show that the Proca field decomposes into scalar-type and vector-type components according to their tensorial behavior on the three-sphere. Two degrees of freedom of the field are described by scalar-type components, which are coupled due to the mass term, while the remaining two degrees of freedom are described by a vector-type component, which decouples completely. Motivated by the Frolov-Krtouš-Kubizňák-Santos (FKKS) ansatz in the limit of zero spin, we use a field transformation to decouple the scalar-type components at the expense of introducing a complex separation parameter β. This parameter can be determined analytically, and its values correspond to two distinct polarizations of the scalar-type sector: "electromagnetic" and "non-electromagnetic", denoted by β_{+} and β_{-}, respectively. In the scalar-type sector, the radial differential equation for each polarization is a Fuchsian differential equation with five singularities, whereas in the vector-type sector, the radial equation has four singularities. By means of the isomonodromy method, we reformulate the boundary value problem in terms of the initial conditions of the Painlevé VI τ function and, using a series expansion of the τ function, we compute the scalar-type and vector-type quasinormal modes (QNMs) in the small horizon limit. Our results are in overall very good agreement with those obtained via the numerical integration method. This shows that the isomonodromy method is a reliable method to compute quasinormal modes in the small horizon limit with high accuracy.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 31, 2025

Discovering Failure Modes of Text-guided Diffusion Models via Adversarial Search

Text-guided diffusion models (TDMs) are widely applied but can fail unexpectedly. Common failures include: (i) natural-looking text prompts generating images with the wrong content, or (ii) different random samples of the latent variables that generate vastly different, and even unrelated, outputs despite being conditioned on the same text prompt. In this work, we aim to study and understand the failure modes of TDMs in more detail. To achieve this, we propose SAGE, the first adversarial search method on TDMs that systematically explores the discrete prompt space and the high-dimensional latent space, to automatically discover undesirable behaviors and failure cases in image generation. We use image classifiers as surrogate loss functions during searching, and employ human inspections to validate the identified failures. For the first time, our method enables efficient exploration of both the discrete and intricate human language space and the challenging latent space, overcoming the gradient vanishing problem. Then, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SAGE on five widely used generative models and reveal four typical failure modes: (1) We find a variety of natural text prompts that generate images failing to capture the semantics of input texts. We further discuss the underlying causes and potential solutions based on the results. (2) We find regions in the latent space that lead to distorted images independent of the text prompt, suggesting that parts of the latent space are not well-structured. (3) We also find latent samples that result in natural-looking images unrelated to the text prompt, implying a possible misalignment between the latent and prompt spaces. (4) By appending a single adversarial token embedding to any input prompts, we can generate a variety of specified target objects. Project page: https://sage-diffusion.github.io/

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 1, 2023

Dopamine: Brain Modes, Not Brains

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods such as adapt large pretrained models by adding small weight-space updates. While effective, weight deltas are hard to interpret mechanistically, and they do not directly expose which internal computations are reused versus bypassed for a new task. We explore an alternative view inspired by neuromodulation: adaptation as a change in mode -- selecting and rescaling existing computations -- rather than rewriting the underlying weights. We propose , a simple activation-space PEFT technique that freezes base weights and learns per-neuron thresholds and gains. During training, a smooth gate decides whether a neuron's activation participates; at inference the gate can be hardened to yield explicit conditional computation and neuron-level attributions. As a proof of concept, we study ``mode specialization'' on MNIST (0^circ) versus rotated MNIST (45^circ). We pretrain a small MLP on a 50/50 mixture (foundation), freeze its weights, and then specialize to the rotated mode using . Across seeds, improves rotated accuracy over the frozen baseline while using only a few hundred trainable parameters per layer, and exhibits partial activation sparsity (a minority of units strongly active). Compared to , trades some accuracy for substantially fewer trainable parameters and a more interpretable ``which-neurons-fire'' mechanism. We discuss limitations, including reduced expressivity when the frozen base lacks features needed for the target mode.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 12

Unpacking Failure Modes of Generative Policies: Runtime Monitoring of Consistency and Progress

Robot behavior policies trained via imitation learning are prone to failure under conditions that deviate from their training data. Thus, algorithms that monitor learned policies at test time and provide early warnings of failure are necessary to facilitate scalable deployment. We propose Sentinel, a runtime monitoring framework that splits the detection of failures into two complementary categories: 1) Erratic failures, which we detect using statistical measures of temporal action consistency, and 2) task progression failures, where we use Vision Language Models (VLMs) to detect when the policy confidently and consistently takes actions that do not solve the task. Our approach has two key strengths. First, because learned policies exhibit diverse failure modes, combining complementary detectors leads to significantly higher accuracy at failure detection. Second, using a statistical temporal action consistency measure ensures that we quickly detect when multimodal, generative policies exhibit erratic behavior at negligible computational cost. In contrast, we only use VLMs to detect failure modes that are less time-sensitive. We demonstrate our approach in the context of diffusion policies trained on robotic mobile manipulation domains in both simulation and the real world. By unifying temporal consistency detection and VLM runtime monitoring, Sentinel detects 18% more failures than using either of the two detectors alone and significantly outperforms baselines, thus highlighting the importance of assigning specialized detectors to complementary categories of failure. Qualitative results are made available at https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/sentinel.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 9, 2024

Preserving Unstable Modes Through Inverse Dynamics in JEPA World Models

Robotic systems often exhibit unstable modes, along which small perturbations and disturbances can cause unbounded growth unless corrected through feedback. Controlling such systems from high-dimensional visual observations requires representations that preserve these modes. Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) provide a natural framework for learning such representations and their dynamics from visual data. However, we demonstrate that next step prediction combined with anti-collapse regularization does not guarantee that controllable unstable modes are preserved: the training loss can be minimized while these modes are collapsed, making stabilization from the learned representation impossible. To address this, we augment world-model training with an action reconstruction objective (i.e., an inverse dynamics loss) that encourages control-aware representations, namely, visual representations that preserve crucial features for control. We prove that exact action reconstruction makes the encoder injective on the finite-horizon reachable subspace. Thus, the encoder cannot discard any state direction reachable by an action sequence within H steps. Moreover, we show that, as H grows, the dominant eigenspace of the finite-horizon controllability Gramian converges to the controllable unstable subspace. We establish our theoretical results for linear systems and demonstrate empirically that our findings extend to nonlinear visual control tasks (CartPole, Walker2D, and PointMaze), highlighting the benefits of control-aware representation learning.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 5

Scalaron Quasinormal and Quasi-Bound Modes of Schwarzschild Black Holes in the Bondi-Sachs Formulation of Metric $f(R)$ Gravity

We study scalaron quasinormal modes and quasi-bound states of Schwarzschild black holes directly within the Bondi-Sachs formulation of metric f(R) gravity, combining frequency-domain analyses with characteristic time evolution. Starting from the linearised characteristic equations, we obtain the massive scalar master equation and show that the tensor master equation takes the same form as in general relativity. For the analytic models considered here, the linear scalar spectra depend on the f(R) theory only through the dimensionless combination μM. We compute both quasinormal and quasi-bound spectral branches using Leaver's continued-fraction method and compare them with independent literature benchmarks. To complement the frequency domain analysis, we evolve the scalaron perturbation equations using a fourth order convergent characteristic scheme. Applying matrix-pencil stability scans to the resulting waveforms, we independently recover fundamental quasinormal frequencies consistent with the continued-fraction results within the measured extraction-stability scales. Finally, for a selected finite-mass case, we demonstrate the extraction of both oscillation frequencies and damping rates of the fundamental quasinormal mode and quasi-bound state from separate time windows of the same waveform at one extraction radius, without imposing either spectral branch at the finite outer boundary.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 4

Model-agnostic search for the quasinormal modes of gravitational wave echoes

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 2, 2023

How can the use of different modes of survey data collection introduce bias? A simple introduction to mode effects using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs)

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025

Chain of Mindset: Reasoning with Adaptive Cognitive Modes

Human problem-solving is never the repetition of a single mindset, by which we mean a distinct mode of cognitive processing. When tackling a specific task, we do not rely on a single mindset; instead, we integrate multiple mindsets within the single solution process. However, existing LLM reasoning methods fall into a common trap: they apply the same fixed mindset across all steps, overlooking that different stages of solving the same problem require fundamentally different mindsets. This single-minded assumption prevents models from reaching the next level of intelligence. To address this limitation, we propose Chain of Mindset (CoM), a training-free agentic framework that enables step-level adaptive mindset orchestration. CoM decomposes reasoning into four functionally heterogeneous mindsets: Spatial, Convergent, Divergent, and Algorithmic. A Meta-Agent dynamically selects the optimal mindset based on the evolving reasoning state, while a bidirectional Context Gate filters cross-module information flow to maintain effectiveness and efficiency. Experiments across six challenging benchmarks spanning mathematics, code generation, scientific QA, and spatial reasoning demonstrate that CoM achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the strongest baseline by 4.96\% and 4.72\% in overall accuracy on Qwen3-VL-32B-Instruct and Gemini-2.0-Flash, while balancing reasoning efficiency. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/QuantaAlpha/chain-of-mindset{https://github.com/QuantaAlpha/chain-of-mindset}.

QuantaAlpha QuantaAlpha
·
Feb 10 2

A Constraint on Primordial $B$-Modes from the First Flight of the SPIDER Balloon-Borne Telescope

We present the first linear polarization measurements from the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of SPIDER, an experiment designed to map the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) on degree angular scales. Results from these measurements include maps and angular power spectra from observations of 4.8% of the sky at 95 and 150 GHz, along with the results of internal consistency tests on these data. While the polarized CMB anisotropy from primordial density perturbations is the dominant signal in this region of sky, Galactic dust emission is also detected with high significance; Galactic synchrotron emission is found to be negligible in the SPIDER bands. We employ two independent foreground-removal techniques in order to explore the sensitivity of the cosmological result to the assumptions made by each. The primary method uses a dust template derived from Planck data to subtract the Galactic dust signal. A second approach, employing a joint analysis of SPIDER and Planck data in the harmonic domain, assumes a modified-blackbody model for the spectral energy distribution of the dust with no constraint on its spatial morphology. Using a likelihood that jointly samples the template amplitude and r parameter space, we derive 95% upper limits on the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio from Feldman-Cousins and Bayesian constructions, finding r<0.11 and r<0.19, respectively. Roughly half the uncertainty in r derives from noise associated with the template subtraction. New data at 280 GHz from SPIDER's second flight will complement the Planck polarization maps, providing powerful measurements of the polarized Galactic dust emission.

  • 71 authors
·
Mar 23, 2021

DANSur_HM: Modularly incorporating higher modes in a deep learning based gravitational-wave surrogate

Numerical relativity (NR) simulations provide the most faithful representation of the gravitational waves (GWs) emitted by binary black hole (BBH) systems during merger. In the context of GW astronomy, tasks such as parameter estimation can require vast numbers of waveform evaluations per second across the entire parameter space. Since performing full NR simulations for each evaluation is not computationally feasible, interpolating methods for existing NR waveforms, known as surrogate models, have been developed with marked success. In this paper, we build on our previous work to introduce methods to train a fast surrogate model based on neural networks in order to generate BBH merger waveforms, including the fundamental (2,2) mode, as well as the (3,3), (2,1), (4,4), (3,2), (4,3) and (5,5) higher-order modes. Applying a pretraining step on approximant data before fine-tuning on NR data allows us to smooth out the parameter space, and making use of the parallelization ability of GPUs to project the NR waveforms in the inclination-phase (ι, ϕ) sphere during training allows the fitting of all the explored modes simultaneously. The developed surrogate model, DANSur\_HM, achieves average mismatches of the order of 10^{-4}, with the worst mismatch at 2.5times10^{-3}, and achieves throughput above 6times10^5 waveforms/second on an NVIDIA V100 GPU. Parameter estimation tests confirm the usefulness of the inclusion of higher modes.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 1

AutoResearch at Production Scale: Failure Modes and a Multi-Agent Framework

Optimizing embedding systems for production recommendation pipelines demands systematic exploration that consumes disproportionate engineering effort at scale. We apply Andrej Karpathy's AutoResearch paradigm -- a large language model that iteratively edits a training script and retains modifications that improve a held-out scalar metric -- to automate this exploration. We report on twelve weeks of running this paradigm at production scale, where iterations consume hours of multi-GPU compute, evaluation involves competing criteria, and campaigns span weeks across many training jobs. Across two independently developed representation-learning systems for a book recommendation pipeline, we ran 220+ experiments and observed five recurring failure modes absent from the original setting: infrastructure fragility, agent memory decay, search-direction stagnation, iteration-cost asymmetry, and metric fixation. We contribute a three-principle scaffolding design -- prevent, persist, redirect -- that maps each failure mode to a structural remedy and whose instantiation scales with iteration cost. The framework produced a 1.82x Recall@6 lift and a 2.1x coherence lift over hand-tuned baselines, and the agent autonomously designed a text-only fallback that expanded catalog coverage by 5.8x. The two systems span nearly three orders of magnitude in per-iteration cost yet exhibit the same failure modes, suggesting these are structural properties of production-scale autonomous research rather than artifacts of either application.

amazon Amazon
·
Sep 23 2

Lagrangian PINNs: A causality-conforming solution to failure modes of physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage neural-networks to find the solutions of partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems with initial conditions and boundary conditions as soft constraints. These soft constraints are often considered to be the sources of the complexity in the training phase of PINNs. Here, we demonstrate that the challenge of training (i) persists even when the boundary conditions are strictly enforced, and (ii) is closely related to the Kolmogorov n-width associated with problems demonstrating transport, convection, traveling waves, or moving fronts. Given this realization, we describe the mechanism underlying the training schemes such as those used in eXtended PINNs (XPINN), curriculum regularization, and sequence-to-sequence learning. For an important category of PDEs, i.e., governed by non-linear convection-diffusion equation, we propose reformulating PINNs on a Lagrangian frame of reference, i.e., LPINNs, as a PDE-informed solution. A parallel architecture with two branches is proposed. One branch solves for the state variables on the characteristics, and the second branch solves for the low-dimensional characteristics curves. The proposed architecture conforms to the causality innate to the convection, and leverages the direction of travel of the information in the domain. Finally, we demonstrate that the loss landscapes of LPINNs are less sensitive to the so-called "complexity" of the problems, compared to those in the traditional PINNs in the Eulerian framework.

  • 3 authors
·
May 5, 2022

Mathematical Proof as a Litmus Test: Revealing Failure Modes of Advanced Large Reasoning Models

Large reasoning models (e.g., R1, o3) have demonstrated remarkable mathematical problem-solving abilities. However, the high reported accuracy of these advanced models on popular datasets, reliance on purely numerical evaluation and potential benchmark leakage, often masks their true reasoning shortcomings. To address this, we propose leveraging the inherent rigor and methodological complexity of mathematical proofs as a diagnostic tool to expose these hidden failures. Specifically, we introduce the RFMDataset (Reveal Failure Modes), a collection of 200 diverse mathematical proof problems, and thoroughly evaluate advanced models' performance on it. Our in-depth analysis of their failures uncovers 10 fine-grained error types, which shows fundamental limitations in current large reasoning models: 1) large reasoning models grapple profoundly with mathematical proofs, with some generating entirely correct proofs for less than 20% of problems and failing even on basic ones; 2) models exhibit a diverse spectrum of reasoning failures, prominently demonstrating the lack of guarantees for the correctness and rigor of single-step reasoning; and 3) models show hallucination and incompleteness during the reasoning process. Our findings reveal that models' self-reflection is insufficient to resolve the current logical dilemmas, necessitating formalized and fine-grained logical training.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 20, 2025

Extending SST Anomaly Forecasts Through Simultaneous Decomposition of Seasonal and PDO Modes

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model simultaneously captures these amplitude-modulated seasonal cycles along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which naturally emerges as an intrinsic feature of the system rather than a separate phenomenon. Using sixteen-dimensional regression based on four spatially distributed time series per variable, the model delivers unprecedented forecast accuracy for both interannual amplitude modulations and PDO evolution, maintaining skill beyond 36 months -- a substantial improvement over current operational and research forecasts, including machine learning methods. Predictions initialized in 2024 project that the PDO will remain in its negative phase through late 2026, implying reduced likelihood of severe marine heatwaves in the eastern North Pacific during this period. These findings have direct implications for regional climate impacts, including storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and marine ecosystem health. By treating seasonal and interannual variability as coupled rather than independent processes, this framework advances our understanding of North Pacific climate dynamics and provides a powerful tool for stakeholders managing climate-sensitive resources and planning adaptation strategies in regions strongly influenced by North Pacific conditions.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 5

Valid Per-Field Selective Risk Control for Document Extraction: Three Failure Modes, a Validity Ladder, and When Conditioning Pays

Per-field accept/review with selective risk at most alpha -- accept a field only if the error rate among accepted fields is controlled -- is the trust contract document-extraction systems need, and the natural procedure silently violates it on real documents. On 13,859 genuine claude-sonnet-5 fields from 800 CORD receipts (49.0% correct) we diagnose three failure modes: document clustering (design effect 1.84-2.45), score-refit leakage (coverage 0.416 at risk 0.127, violating alpha=0.10 in 95% of splits), and a tie-mass pathology (a degenerate score collapses the threshold grid, 0.030 to 0.001). We organize the fixes as a validity ladder, guarantee form stated per tier. A fit/val split protocol restores expected-selective-risk control for a learned fusion: coverage 0.318 at risk 0.096 at nominal alpha=0.10, no tolerance band (production variant 0.326) -- an on-average point whose realized risk exceeds alpha in 47.5% of resplits, not a certificate. Mondrian Learn-then-Test with exact binomial tails yields per-group PAC certificates: field-iid 0.171 at risk 0.068, cluster-corrected 0.140, doc-iid 0.060 -- the only tier matching documents, honestly near-vacuous today. Support-bin, the pre-specified provenance taxonomy, wins every rigor tier on the sonnet CORD capture (p<1e-4, Bonferroni-corrected) -- a win that does not replicate on the same documents under haiku or qwen -- while on higher-accuracy corpora pooled thresholds win: conditioning helps exactly where pooled cannot certify, subsumed by a learned score elsewhere. A frozen-configuration confirmation on selection-untouched claude-haiku-4-5 held at both risk levels, and a blind three-annotator human-gold audit verifies the practical tier's accepted-set risk at 1.3% against its 10% budget (Fleiss' kappa=0.83; labels err one-sidedly pessimistic). Released Apache-2.0 with seed-pinned, regression-gated procedures.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 27 2

Calculation and selection of silicon to glass anodic bonding modes based on the criterion of minimum residual stress

The goal of this work is a scientifically justified choice of efficient technological parameters of anodic bonding of silicon to glass, ensuring a minimum level of residual stresses. The relevance of this dissertation is determined by the continuous efforts to reduce the negative effects of the joint use of dissimilar materials in electronic devices. Theoretical and practical results: the temperature dependence of the true values of the coefficient of thermal expansion of popular glass brands in the temperature range from minus 100 °C to 500 °C were obtained; the ratio of thicknesses of silicon and glass that minimizes residual stress on the silicon surface was calculated; the technique of minimizing the residual stresses in silicon anodically bonded to glass was developed. Results of this research are applicable to MEMS devices design and simulations. The first chapter provides the analysis of the current state of research in the field of anodic bonding technology application. The second chapter is devoted to the experimental study of temperature dependence of the linear thermal expansion coefficient of the glass. Thermomechanical properties and composition of the following glass brands: LK5, Schott Borofloat 33, Corning 7740, Hoya SD-2 were measured. The third chapter describes the existing models of estimating the residual stresses in the silicon-glass bonds. Two models based on a theory of strength of materials and the classical lamination theory with an additional temperature dependence of coefficients of thermal expansion are proposed for further use. Residual stresses in silicon-glass bonds are estimated with these models and data from the preceding chapter. The fourth chapter describes the experiments carried out to confirm claims from the previous chapters. The proposed technique of minimizing residual stresses is described as steps for a device designer.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 22, 2018

FailureSensorIQ: A Multi-Choice QA Dataset for Understanding Sensor Relationships and Failure Modes

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 3, 2025 1

Spatially Encoded Polaritonic Ultra-Strong Coupling in Gradient Metasurfaces with Epsilon-Near-Zero Modes

We introduce a platform to achieve ultra-strong coupling (USC) between light and matter using widely available materials. USC is a light-matter interaction regime characterized by coupling strengths exceeding 10% of the ground state energy. It gives rise to novel physical phenomena, such as efficient single-photon coupling and quantum gates, with applications in quantum sensing, nonlinear optics, and low-threshold lasing. Although early demonstrations in plasmonic systems have been realized, achieving USC in dielectric platforms, which offer lower losses and high Q-factors, remains challenging due to typically low mode overlap between the photonic field and the material resonance. Here we leverage dielectric dual gradient metasurfaces supporting quasi-bound states in the continuum to spatially encode both the spectral and coupling parameter space and demonstrate USC to an epsilon-near-zero (ENZ) mode in an ultra-thin SiO2 layer. The strong out-of-plane electric fields in our tapered bar structure overlap exceptionally well with those of the ENZ mode, resulting in a normalized coupling strength of 0.101 and a mode splitting equivalent to 20% of the ENZ mode energy; a four- to five-fold increase compared to previous approaches. The strong field confinement of our approach opens new possibilities for compact and scalable polaritonic devices, such as tunable frequency converters and low-energy optical modulators.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 19, 2025

Gravitational waves in massive gravity: Waveforms generated by a particle plunging into a black hole and the excitation of quasinormal modes and quasibound states

With the aim of testing massive gravity in the context of black hole physics, we investigate the gravitational radiation emitted by a massive particle plunging into a Schwarzschild black hole from slightly below the innermost stable circular orbit. To do so, we first construct the quasinormal and quasibound resonance spectra of the spin-2 massive field for odd and even parity. Then, we compute the waveforms produced by the plunging particle and study their spectral content. This allows us to highlight and interpret important phenomena in the plunge regime, including (i) the excitation of quasibound states, with particular emphasis on the amplification and slow decay of the post-ringdown phase of the even-parity dipolar mode due to harmonic resonance; (ii) during the adiabatic phase, the waveform emitted by the plunging particle is very well described by the waveform emitted by the particle living on the innermost stable circular orbit, and (iii) the regularized waveforms and their unregularized counterparts constructed from the quasinormal mode spectrum are in excellent agreement. Finally, we construct, for arbitrary directions of observation and, in particular, outside the orbital plane of the plunging particle, the regularized multipolar waveforms, i.e., the waveforms constructed by summing over partial waveforms.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 25, 2024

Conditional Equivalence of DPO and RLHF: Implicit Assumption, Failure Modes, and Provable Alignment

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a popular alternative to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), offering theoretical equivalence with simpler implementation. We prove this equivalence is conditional rather than universal, depending on an implicit assumption frequently violated in practice: the RLHF-optimal policy must prefer human-preferred responses. When this assumption fails, DPO optimizes relative advantage over the reference policy rather than absolute alignment with human preferences, leading to pathological convergence where policies decrease DPO loss while preferring dispreferred responses. We characterize when this assumption is violated, show the existence of an undesirable solution space, and prove that DPO and RLHF optimize fundamentally different objectives in such cases. To address this, we introduce Constrained Preference Optimization (CPO), augmenting RLHF with constraints for provable alignment. We further provide a geometric interpretation through soft margin ranking, revealing that DPO implements margin ranking with potentially negative targets. Our theoretical analysis establishes when DPOs' guarantees hold and provides solutions preserving simplicity with provable alignment. Comprehensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that CPO achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at: https://github.com/visitworld123/CPO.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19 1

The High-resolution Accretion Disks of Embedded protoStars (HADES) simulations. I. Impact of Protostellar Magnetic Fields on the Accretion Modes

How embedded, actively accreting low-mass protostars accrete their mass is still greatly debated. Observations are now piecing together the puzzle of embedded protostellar accretion, in particular with new facilities in the near-infrared. However, high-resolution theoretical models are still lacking, with a stark paucity of detailed simulations of these early phases. Here we present high-resolution non-ideal magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of a Solar mass protostar accreting at rates exceeding 10^{-6} M_{odot} yr^{-1}. We show the results of the accretion flow for four different protostellar magnetic fields, 10 G, 500 G, 1 kG, and 2 kG, combined with a disk magnetic field. For weaker (10 G and 500 G) protostar magnetic fields, accretion occurs via a turbulent boundary layer mode, with disk material impacting across the protostellar surface. In the 500 G model, the presence of a magnetically dominated outflow focuses the accretion towards the equator, slightly enhancing and ordering the accretion. For kG magnetic fields, the disk becomes truncated due to the protostellar dipole and exhibits magnetospheric accretion, with the 2 kG model having accretion bursts induced by the interchange instability. We present bolometric light curves for the models and find that they reproduce observations of Class I protostars from YSOVAR, with high bursts followed by an exponential decay possibly being a signature of instability-driven accretion. Finally, we present the filling fractions of accretion and find that 90\% of the mass is accreted in a surface area fraction of 10-20\%. These simulations will be extended in future work for a broader parameter space, with their high resolution and high temporal spacing able to explore a wide range of interesting protostellar physics.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 18, 2024

PaccMann$^{RL}$ on SARS-CoV-2: Designing antiviral candidates with conditional generative models

With the fast development of COVID-19 into a global pandemic, scientists around the globe are desperately searching for effective antiviral therapeutic agents. Bridging systems biology and drug discovery, we propose a deep learning framework for conditional de novo design of antiviral candidate drugs tailored against given protein targets. First, we train a multimodal ligand--protein binding affinity model on predicting affinities of antiviral compounds to target proteins and couple this model with pharmacological toxicity predictors. Exploiting this multi-objective as a reward function of a conditional molecular generator (consisting of two VAEs), we showcase a framework that navigates the chemical space toward regions with more antiviral molecules. Specifically, we explore a challenging setting of generating ligands against unseen protein targets by performing a leave-one-out-cross-validation on 41 SARS-CoV-2-related target proteins. Using deep RL, it is demonstrated that in 35 out of 41 cases, the generation is biased towards sampling more binding ligands, with an average increase of 83% comparing to an unbiased VAE. We present a case-study on a potential Envelope-protein inhibitor and perform a synthetic accessibility assessment of the best generated molecules is performed that resembles a viable roadmap towards a rapid in-vitro evaluation of potential SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors.

  • 7 authors
·
May 27, 2020