Daily Papers

Self-distillation is a promising recipe for self-improvement in language models. In this setting, a model can serve as its own teacher when given privileged information, such as a solution to a math problem. This seems especially appealing for thinking models, which can use test-time reasoning to absorb the privileged information. Surprisingly, we show that privileged self-distillation degrades thinking models on long reasoning traces: across five Qwen3 and OLMo thinking models evaluated on AIME24, AIME25, and HMMT25, privileged-context distillation causes a relative drop of up to 17% in avg@16 accuracy. The degradation scales with the amount of privileged context withheld from the student and is most pronounced at long rollout budgets, where thinking models otherwise obtain their largest gains. This failure mode is not specific to self-distillation: on-policy distillation (OPD) improves thinking models, but privileged OPD reverses these gains. Our diagnostics link this failure mode to how privileged teacher context reshapes learning at high-entropy forking positions, where multiple continuations remain plausible and may lead to different reasoning paths. Privileged context lowers fork rates in thinking-model rollouts but not in instruction-model rollouts. This leads to an interesting dichotomy, where privileged context can help instruction-tuned models but hurts stronger thinking models. The effect is visible when the student begins a self-correction branch, where privileged OPD penalizes sampled reconsideration tokens that vanilla OPD supports. Thinking models trained with a privileged teacher produce fewer verification, backtracking, and hedging markers, even after length normalization. These findings indicate that self-distillation for strong thinking models requires attention to token-level signal, especially around correction and reasoning steps.

Research and applications in Machine Learning are limited by computational resources, while 1% of the world's electricity goes into calculating 34 billion billion SHA-256 hashes per second, four orders of magnitude more than the 200 petaflop power of the world's most powerful supercomputer. The work presented here describes how a simple soft fork on Bitcoin can adapt these incomparable resources to a global distributed computer. By creating an infrastructure and ledger fully compatible with blockchain technology, the hashes can be replaced with stochastic optimizations such as Deep Net training, inverse problems such as GANs, and arbitrary NP computations.

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regime dependence tied to the 2024-2025 rate-cutting cycle. The recession risk signal from KXRECSSNBER proves more stable out of sample, delivering an MSFE ratio of 0.979 with Clark-West p = 0.020. The inflation channel, measured by CPI repricing on KXCPI contracts, predicts altcoin volatility for Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink with t-statistics ranging from -2.1 to -3.4 and out-of-sample gains for Ethereum at MSFE = 0.959 with p = 0.010 and Solana at p = 0.048. Both the Bitcoin--Fed-dovish and Chainlink--CPI specifications survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.05. Orthogonalization and baseline comparisons against Fed Funds futures, Treasury yields, and the Deribit implied volatility index confirm that these signals carry information not embedded in conventional financial instruments. The sample covers ten Kalshi event series and six cryptocurrency assets over January 2023 to March 2026.

We introduce Shepherd, a functional programming model that formalizes meta-agent operations on target agents as functions, with core operations mechanized in Lean. Shepherd records every agent-environment interaction as a typed event in a Git-like execution trace, enabling any past state to be forked and replayed. The system forks the agent process and its filesystem 5times faster than Docker, achieving >95% prompt-cache reuse on replay. We demonstrate the model through three applications. First, in runtime intervention, a live supervisor increases pair coding pass rates from 28.8% to 54.7% on CooperBench. Second, in counterfactual meta-optimization, branching exploration outperforms baselines across four benchmarks by up to 11 points while reducing wall-clock time by up to 58%. Third, in Tree-RL training, forking rollouts at selected turns improves TerminalBench-2 performance from 34.2% to 39.4%. These results establish Shepherd as an efficient infrastructure for programming meta-agents. We open-source the system to support future research.

This paper studies forking, a generalization failure discovered in NanoGPT autoresearch. Under data replay, models with an over-encoding n-gram memory branch show a sharp separation of training and validation loss at epoch boundaries, resembling the shape of forks. We study this phenomenon in a controlled vanilla NanoGPT setting and reproduce it in a DeepSeek-style model with Engram. Mechanistically, repeated updates sharpen the continuations observed in training while suppressing the probability of unseen continuations, whose loss grows with each pass. The n-gram module creates weakly interacting context-specific subspaces, amplifying this effect. Low-frequency contexts contribute most of the gap, whereas larger training budgets and heavily crowded tables suppress it. We also observe forking in short-budget, heavily repeated SFT and RL-like regimes. The contributions of this paper are twofold: (1) Forking reveals yet another curious phenomenon in deep learning, in addition to grokking and double descent. (2) Forking is an unexpected and unpleasant by-product of tricks proposed by autoresearch agents. While these agents produce an enormous number of results that seem useful, we should always be careful with their results.

We present NanoForecast v0.5, a 6.5M-parameter forecaster that competes with models 31x its size (TimesFM, 200M parameters) after training pipeline fixes and no architecture change. Retraining the v0.3 architecture with corrected loss-scope handling, tensor shape alignment, and wider augmentation coverage cuts overall Mean Absolute Scaled Error by 43.8% under one fixed protocol (MASE 3.030 to 1.704) on the same data and compute budget. NanoForecast v0.5 beats TimesFM on all three ETT datasets (MASE 0.676/1.110/0.287 vs. 0.705/1.360/0.545) and on exchange rate (4.317 vs. 4.383); TimesFM keeps a clear lead on the high-cardinality electricity and traffic sets. Against PatchTST (15M+ parameters, official configuration), v0.5 wins all three ETT sets. Training takes about 12 hours on a single cloud GPU (NVIDIA T4, Google Colab) and inference needs no GPU (measurements in this paper are on an Apple M4 CPU). We release all code, pretrained checkpoints, and evaluation framework under Apache 2.0 at https://github.com/eulogik/NanoForecast

Agent frameworks increasingly delegate work by forking sub-agents; a common default makes the child inherit the parent's full working context. We measure how the effect of inherited state changes with capability, where C_m denotes clean fork-fresh accuracy. We compare 3 inheritance policies: Reset (fork fresh: base evidence only), Selective (curated handoff: + the useful prior conclusion), and Full (implicit fork: + the useful conclusion and d copies of a superseded conclusion) over a same-family ladder (Qwen3 0.6/1.7/4/8B) on a frozen, closed-set, action-scored benchmark. Every task is solvable from the base evidence, so performance loss can be attributed to reliance on stale state. (1) Deference to superseded state falls sharply with measured capability C_m (the slope's confidence interval, CI, excludes zero on every family) across 2 synthetic primitives plus MuSiQue and HotpotQA. (2) On the Qwen3 synthetic ladder, net inheritance harm follows a nonmonotone pattern: a mid-capability model (Qwen3-1.7B) is a statistically significant local minimum of net harm, falling below its fork-fresh baseline (Δ(32)=-0.19 [-0.25, -0.12]) and both neighbors, while the weakest model stays near-neutral and the strongest models stay robust. We call this harmful capability range a danger band. A within-model counting-difficulty sweep shows that the effect depends on model class even at matched C_m, and a live parent-to-child fork reproduces the mid-model harm. (3) Curated Selective handoff improves average accuracy over Full on all 3 datasets, largest at the in-band model, while the fixed-threshold capability router fails on the other datasets; a transferable router would need to predict the balance between reuse benefit and stale-context penalty. The benchmark is frozen and version-hashed.