Daily Papers

Episodic memory allows LLM agents to accumulate and retrieve experience, but current methods treat each memory independently, i.e., evaluating retrieval quality in isolation without accounting for the dependency chains through which memories enable the creation of future memories. We introduce MemQ, which applies TD(λ) eligibility traces to memory Q-values, propagating credit backward through a provenance DAG that records which memories were retrieved when each new memory was created. Credit weight decays as (γλ)^d with DAG depth d, replacing temporal distance with structural proximity. We formalize the setting as an Exogenous-Context MDP, whose factored transition decouples the exogenous task stream from the endogenous memory store. Across six benchmarks, spanning OS interaction, function calling, code generation, multimodal reasoning, embodied reasoning, and expert-level QA, MemQ achieves the highest success rate on all six in generalization evaluation and runtime learning, with gains largest on multi-step tasks that produce deep and relevant provenance chains (up to +5.7~pp) and smallest on single-step classification (+0.77~pp) where single-step updates already suffice. We further study how γ and λ interact with the EC-MDP structure, providing principled guidance for parameter selection and future research. Code is available at https://github.com/jwliao-ai/MemQ.

MDPs with low-rank transitions -- that is, the transition matrix can be factored into the product of two matrices, left and right -- is a highly representative structure that enables tractable learning. The left matrix enables expressive function approximation for value-based learning and has been studied extensively. In this work, we instead investigate sample-efficient learning with density features, i.e., the right matrix, which induce powerful models for state-occupancy distributions. This setting not only sheds light on leveraging unsupervised learning in RL, but also enables plug-in solutions for convex RL. In the offline setting, we propose an algorithm for off-policy estimation of occupancies that can handle non-exploratory data. Using this as a subroutine, we further devise an online algorithm that constructs exploratory data distributions in a level-by-level manner. As a central technical challenge, the additive error of occupancy estimation is incompatible with the multiplicative definition of data coverage. In the absence of strong assumptions like reachability, this incompatibility easily leads to exponential error blow-up, which we overcome via novel technical tools. Our results also readily extend to the representation learning setting, when the density features are unknown and must be learned from an exponentially large candidate set.

Transition videos play a crucial role in media production, enhancing the flow and coherence of visual narratives. Traditional methods like morphing often lack artistic appeal and require specialized skills, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advances in diffusion model-based video generation offer new possibilities for creating transitions but face challenges such as poor inter-frame relationship modeling and abrupt content changes. We propose a novel training-free Transition Video Generation (TVG) approach using video-level diffusion models that addresses these limitations without additional training. Our method leverages Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to model latent representations, ensuring smooth and dynamic transitions between frames. Additionally, we introduce interpolation-based conditional controls and a Frequency-aware Bidirectional Fusion (FBiF) architecture to enhance temporal control and transition reliability. Evaluations of benchmark datasets and custom image pairs demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generating high-quality smooth transition videos. The code are provided in https://sobeymil.github.io/tvg.com.

A fundamental dilemma in generative modeling persists: iterative diffusion models achieve outstanding fidelity, but at a significant computational cost, while efficient few-step alternatives are constrained by a hard quality ceiling. This conflict between generation steps and output quality arises from restrictive training objectives that focus exclusively on either infinitesimal dynamics (PF-ODEs) or direct endpoint prediction. We address this challenge by introducing an exact, continuous-time dynamics equation that analytically defines state transitions across any finite time interval. This leads to a novel generative paradigm, Transition Models (TiM), which adapt to arbitrary-step transitions, seamlessly traversing the generative trajectory from single leaps to fine-grained refinement with more steps. Despite having only 865M parameters, TiM achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing leading models such as SD3.5 (8B parameters) and FLUX.1 (12B parameters) across all evaluated step counts. Importantly, unlike previous few-step generators, TiM demonstrates monotonic quality improvement as the sampling budget increases. Additionally, when employing our native-resolution strategy, TiM delivers exceptional fidelity at resolutions up to 4096x4096.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.

Latent Action Models (LAMs) learn action-like proxies from observation transitions. However, in multi-object or distractor-rich scenes, these visual effects mix agent motion with distractors, camera dynamics, and background changes, making the underlying action source ambiguous without supervision. Structuring this mixture as reusable transition effects provides an intermediate representation from which action-like latents can be more robustly formed. We introduce Observed Transition Factorization (OTF), which decomposes each transition into a sparse set of observed transition primitives. Using these primitives as the transition interface, we propose OTF-LAM, which abstracts motion primitives into action-like latents within the standard inverse-forward dynamics framework, and OTF-LAM-Dino, a decoder-free variant that predicts future states in a frozen DINOv2 representation space. Empirically, OTF primitives transfer zeroshot across controlled carrier and morphology shifts, showing reusability. Furthermore, downstream policy learning results match or outperform baselines under complex transition ambiguity.

Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations of such shifts remain scarce, preventing the development of reliable early warning systems. Conventional statistical and spectral indicators, such as increasing variance, tend to fail under realistic conditions of limited data and correlated noise, whereas existing deep learning classifiers do not extrapolate beyond their training data distribution. In this work, we introduce TipPFN, an in-context learning (ICL) framework that uses a prior-data fitted network to infer a system's proximity to a critical transition. Trained on our novel synthetic data generator, which is based on canonical bifurcation scenarios coupled to diverse, randomized stochastic dynamics, TipPFN flexibly capitalizes on contexts of various sizes, complexity and dimensionalities. We demonstrate robust, state-of-the-art early detection of critical transitions in previously unseen tipping regimes, sim-to-real examples, and real-world observations in both ICL and zero-shot settings.

Machine intelligence is often evaluated through abstract reasoning problems, yet many real-world problems are visual, such as arranging objects, repairing layouts, or tracing routes. Solving these problems requires understanding a scene, inferring what must change to achieve a goal, and realizing that change without disturbing unrelated content. However, existing benchmarks mainly evaluate perception, generation, or explicitly specified transformations, leaving goal-driven visual problem solving underexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce SolveEpIT, a benchmark for visual problem solving through scene transformation. Given an image and a goal, a model must infer a valid transformation from the request, the scene, or a visually expressed rule, then execute it while preserving unrelated content. SoLvEEDrr contains 2,728 cases. Atomic transition contracts specify required and protected conditions, enabling SoLvEScoRE to measure completion and unintended changes without a single reference output. The strongest evaluated model achieves only57.0% SolvEScore. We further introduce SolveEdiT-PLAN, a two-stage visual planner that instantiates the transition before generation. Under matched single-generation evaluation, it improves SoLvEScoRE by 9.1 points on average across three tested generators, including a gain from 57.0% to 71.6% for GPT-Image-2, without modifying the editor.

Leveraging text, images, structure maps, or motion trajectories as conditional guidance, diffusion models have achieved great success in automated and high-quality video generation. However, generating smooth and rational transition videos given the first and last video frames as well as descriptive text prompts is far underexplored. We present VTG, a Versatile Transition video Generation framework that can generate smooth, high-fidelity, and semantically coherent video transitions. VTG introduces interpolation-based initialization that helps preserve object identity and handle abrupt content changes effectively. In addition, it incorporates dual-directional motion fine-tuning and representation alignment regularization to mitigate the limitations of pre-trained image-to-video diffusion models in motion smoothness and generation fidelity, respectively. To evaluate VTG and facilitate future studies on unified transition generation, we collected TransitBench, a comprehensive benchmark for transition generation covering two representative transition tasks: concept blending and scene transition. Extensive experiments show that VTG achieves superior transition performance consistently across all four tasks.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

Large video diffusion and flow models have achieved remarkable success in high-quality video generation, but their use in real-time interactive applications remains limited due to their inefficient multi-step sampling process. In this work, we present Transition Matching Distillation (TMD), a novel framework for distilling video diffusion models into efficient few-step generators. The central idea of TMD is to match the multi-step denoising trajectory of a diffusion model with a few-step probability transition process, where each transition is modeled as a lightweight conditional flow. To enable efficient distillation, we decompose the original diffusion backbone into two components: (1) a main backbone, comprising the majority of early layers, that extracts semantic representations at each outer transition step; and (2) a flow head, consisting of the last few layers, that leverages these representations to perform multiple inner flow updates. Given a pretrained video diffusion model, we first introduce a flow head to the model, and adapt it into a conditional flow map. We then apply distribution matching distillation to the student model with flow head rollout in each transition step. Extensive experiments on distilling Wan2.1 1.3B and 14B text-to-video models demonstrate that TMD provides a flexible and strong trade-off between generation speed and visual quality. In particular, TMD outperforms existing distilled models under comparable inference costs in terms of visual fidelity and prompt adherence. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/genair/tmd

In settings such as fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, neural networks are often adapted under distribution shift. Standard adaptation methods typically optimize the target objective directly, inducing an abrupt change from the source training objective. This abrupt transition can distort learned representations, including features that may still be useful for the new task. We investigate whether a more gradual transition can improve adaptation. We propose loss smoothing, a simple approach that interpolates between the source and target training objectives at the start of adaptation. This smooth transition helps to preserve useful features from the source distribution while still enabling the model to specialize to the target distribution. Across controlled supervised shifts, pretrained vision adaptation, offline-to-online and online reinforcement learning, and language model fine-tuning, we find that loss smoothing consistently improves performance, suggesting that smoother objective transitions are a broadly useful tool for model adaptation.

We present Emu Video, a text-to-video generation model that factorizes the generation into two steps: first generating an image conditioned on the text, and then generating a video conditioned on the text and the generated image. We identify critical design decisions--adjusted noise schedules for diffusion, and multi-stage training--that enable us to directly generate high quality and high resolution videos, without requiring a deep cascade of models as in prior work. In human evaluations, our generated videos are strongly preferred in quality compared to all prior work--81% vs. Google's Imagen Video, 90% vs. Nvidia's PYOCO, and 96% vs. Meta's Make-A-Video. Our model outperforms commercial solutions such as RunwayML's Gen2 and Pika Labs. Finally, our factorizing approach naturally lends itself to animating images based on a user's text prompt, where our generations are preferred 96% over prior work.

Compositional video generation aims to synthesize multiple instances with diverse appearance and motion, which is widely applicable in real-world scenarios. However, current approaches mainly focus on binding semantics, neglecting to understand diverse motion categories specified in prompts. In this paper, we propose a motion factorization framework that decomposes complex motion into three primary categories: motionlessness, rigid motion, and non-rigid motion. Specifically, our framework follows a planning before generation paradigm. (1) During planning, we reason about motion laws on the motion graph to obtain frame-wise changes in the shape and position of each instance. This alleviates semantic ambiguities in the user prompt by organizing it into a structured representation of instances and their interactions. (2) During generation, we modulate the synthesis of distinct motion categories in a disentangled manner. Conditioned on the motion cues, guidance branches stabilize appearance in motionless regions, preserve rigid-body geometry, and regularize local non-rigid deformations. Crucially, our two modules are model-agnostic, which can be seamlessly incorporated into various diffusion model architectures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework achieves impressive performance in motion synthesis on real-world benchmarks. Our code will be released soon.

For the case of nonlinear second-order differential equations with a constant coefficient of the first derivative term and polynomial nonlinearities, the factorization conditions of Rosu and Cornejo-Perez are approached in two ways: (i) by commuting the subindices of the factorization functions in the two factorization conditions and (ii) by leaving invariant only the first factorization condition achieved by using monomials or polynomial sequences. For the first case, the factorization brackets commute and the generated equations are only equations of Ermakov-Pinney type. The second modification is non commuting, leading to nonlinear equations with different nonlinear force terms, but the same first-order part as the initially factored equation. It is illustrated for monomials with the examples of the generalized Fisher and FitzHugh-Nagumo initial equations. A polynomial sequence example is also included.

Scientific discovery is not only answer generation but revision of the representational regime in which evidence, artifacts, operations, and verifiers are typed. We develop a category-theoretic account of agentic discovery for materials science. In a fixed regime b with schema category S_b, the system state is a copresheaf I_t: S_b -> Set, and provenance is the category of elements \int_{S_b} I_t. Fixed-regime operation is an update on such states, endofunctorial only when provenance-preserving refinements are specified and preserved. Discovery is instead a verified regime transition u: S_b -> S_b': old artifacts are preserved, transported by the left Kan extension Lan_u I_t, and compared with the post-transition state to identify residual content beyond functorial transport. This separates retrieval, search, and discovery without subjective novelty. We instantiate the framework in two systems. In Builder/Breaker, a protein-mechanics world model is revised under a Minimum Description Length gate; the accepted law expresses within-chain flexibility as all-mode elastic compliance conditioned by slow collective-mode participation, or mode-conditioned compliance. In CategoryScienceClaw, typed skills, artifacts, open needs, workflow mutation, gates, stress tests, and public discourse become a proof-carrying knowledge-computation graph. A fiber-network example records candidate models, rejected alternatives, an AIC gate, perturbation tests, and an accepted orientation-tensor anisotropic stiffness surrogate over an isotropic fiber-count descriptor. Together, the cases show how category theory can be both a mathematical language for discovery and an engineering specification for self-revising AI discovery systems.

Instruction-based image editing has achieved remarkable success in semantic alignment, yet state-of-the-art models frequently fail to render physically plausible results when editing involves complex causal dynamics, such as refraction or material deformation. We attribute this limitation to the dominant paradigm that treats editing as a discrete mapping between image pairs, which provides only boundary conditions and leaves transition dynamics underspecified. To address this, we reformulate physics-aware editing as predictive physical state transitions and introduce PhysicTran38K, a large-scale video-based dataset comprising 38K transition trajectories across five physical domains, constructed via a two-stage filtering and constraint-aware annotation pipeline. Building on this supervision, we propose PhysicEdit, an end-to-end framework equipped with a textual-visual dual-thinking mechanism. It combines a frozen Qwen2.5-VL for physically grounded reasoning with learnable transition queries that provide timestep-adaptive visual guidance to a diffusion backbone. Experiments show that PhysicEdit improves over Qwen-Image-Edit by 5.9% in physical realism and 10.1% in knowledge-grounded editing, setting a new state-of-the-art for open-source methods, while remaining competitive with leading proprietary models.

State-of-the-art Text-to-Video (T2V) diffusion models can generate visually impressive results, yet they still frequently fail to compose complex scenes or follow logical temporal instructions. In this paper, we argue that many errors, including apparent motion failures, originate from the model's inability to construct a semantically correct or logically consistent initial frame. We introduce Factorized Video Generation (FVG), a pipeline that decouples these tasks by decomposing the Text-to-Video generation into three specialized stages: (1) Reasoning, where a Large Language Model (LLM) rewrites the video prompt to describe only the initial scene, resolving temporal ambiguities; (2) Composition, where a Text-to-Image (T2I) model synthesizes a high-quality, compositionally-correct anchor frame from this new prompt; and (3) Temporal Synthesis, where a video model, finetuned to understand this anchor, focuses its entire capacity on animating the scene and following the prompt. Our decomposed approach sets a new state-of-the-art on the T2V CompBench benchmark and significantly improves all tested models on VBench2. Furthermore, we show that visual anchoring allows us to cut the number of sampling steps by 70% without any loss in performance, leading to a substantial speed-up in sampling. Factorized Video Generation offers a simple yet practical path toward more efficient, robust, and controllable video synthesis

Shot Boundary Detection (SBD) aims to automatically identify shot changes and divide a video into coherent shots. While SBD was widely studied in the literature, existing state-of-the-art methods often produce non-interpretable boundaries on transitions, miss subtle yet harmful discontinuities, and rely on noisy, low-diversity annotations and outdated benchmarks. To alleviate these limitations, we propose OmniShotCut to formulate SBD as structured relational prediction, jointly estimating shot ranges with intra-shot relations and inter-shot relations, by a shot query-based dense video Transformer. To avoid imprecise manual labeling, we adopt a fully synthetic transition synthesis pipeline that automatically reproduces major transition families with precise boundaries and parameterized variants. We also introduce OmniShotCutBench, a modern wide-domain benchmark enabling holistic and diagnostic evaluation.

Detection of video shot transition is a crucial pre-processing step in video analysis. Previous studies are restricted on detecting sudden content changes between frames through similarity measurement and multi-scale operations are widely utilized to deal with transitions of various lengths. However, localization of gradual transitions are still under-explored due to the high visual similarity between adjacent frames. Cut shot transitions are abrupt semantic breaks while gradual shot transitions contain low-level spatial-temporal patterns caused by video effects in addition to the gradual semantic breaks, e.g. dissolve. In order to address the problem, we propose a structured network which is able to detect these two shot transitions using targeted models separately. Considering speed performance trade-offs, we design a smart framework. With one TITAN GPU, the proposed method can achieve a 30\(\times\) real-time speed. Experiments on public TRECVID07 and RAI databases show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. In order to train a high-performance shot transition detector, we contribute a new database ClipShots, which contains 128636 cut transitions and 38120 gradual transitions from 4039 online videos. ClipShots intentionally collect short videos for more hard cases caused by hand-held camera vibrations, large object motions, and occlusion.

Diffusion Transformers have established a new state-of-the-art in image synthesis, but the high computational cost of iterative sampling severely hampers their practical deployment. While existing acceleration methods often focus on the temporal domain, they overlook the substantial spatial redundancy inherent in the generative process, where global structures emerge long before fine-grained details are formed. The uniform computational treatment of all spatial regions represents a critical inefficiency. In this paper, we introduce Just-in-Time (JiT), a novel training-free framework that addresses this challenge by acceleration in the spatial domain. JiT formulates a spatially approximated generative ordinary differential equation (ODE) that drives the full latent state evolution based on computations from a dynamically selected, sparse subset of anchor tokens. To ensure seamless transitions as new tokens are incorporated to expand the dimensions of the latent state, we propose a deterministic micro-flow, a simple and effective finite-time ODE that maintains both structural coherence and statistical correctness. Extensive experiments on the state-of-the-art FLUX.1-dev model demonstrate that JiT achieves up to a 7x speedup with nearly lossless performance, significantly outperforming existing acceleration methods and establishing a new and superior trade-off between inference speed and generation fidelity.

Recently video generation has achieved substantial progress with realistic results. Nevertheless, existing AI-generated videos are usually very short clips ("shot-level") depicting a single scene. To deliver a coherent long video ("story-level"), it is desirable to have creative transition and prediction effects across different clips. This paper presents a short-to-long video diffusion model, SEINE, that focuses on generative transition and prediction. The goal is to generate high-quality long videos with smooth and creative transitions between scenes and varying lengths of shot-level videos. Specifically, we propose a random-mask video diffusion model to automatically generate transitions based on textual descriptions. By providing the images of different scenes as inputs, combined with text-based control, our model generates transition videos that ensure coherence and visual quality. Furthermore, the model can be readily extended to various tasks such as image-to-video animation and autoregressive video prediction. To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of this new generative task, we propose three assessing criteria for smooth and creative transition: temporal consistency, semantic similarity, and video-text semantic alignment. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach over existing methods for generative transition and prediction, enabling the creation of story-level long videos. Project page: https://vchitect.github.io/SEINE-project/ .

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) often reach a correct solution before their long Chain-of-Thought trace ends, yet continue with redundant verification, repeated attempts, or unnecessary exploration that wastes computation and can even overturn the correct answer. We frame this behavior as a latent productive-to-redundant transition and show it is directly reflected in hidden states: around first-correct-solution (FCS) boundaries, late-layer representations separate efficient from overthinking tokens, while boundary-permutation and position controls collapse. We propose ROM, a streaming intervention framework that monitors a frozen LRM with a lightweight hidden-state detector (sim0.1\% of backbone parameters) and intervenes at well-formed reasoning boundaries; Counterfactual Self-Correction (CSC) balances supervision with wrongrightarrowcorrect trajectories, preserving useful pre-FCS self-correction. Unlike prior adaptive early-exit methods, ROM extracts no intermediate answers, launches no probe decoding, and updates no backbone weights. Across five backbones from three model families and five reasoning benchmarks, against ten recent baselines under a shared protocol, ROM_{CSC} attains the highest accuracy in 19 of 25 model--benchmark settings, cuts response length by 28--77\% (mean 45\%) versus vanilla decoding, and is the only method on the accuracy--length Pareto front in every setting. The same MATH500-trained supervision transfers zero-shot across scales, families, and task domains, and end-to-end wall-clock latency drops by 46.5\% with sim5\% per-token overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/SaFo-Lab/ROM.

To achieve real-time interactive video generation, current methods distill pretrained bidirectional video diffusion models into few-step autoregressive (AR) models, facing an architectural gap when full attention is replaced by causal attention. However, existing approaches do not bridge this gap theoretically. They initialize the AR student via ODE distillation, which requires frame-level injectivity, where each noisy frame must map to a unique clean frame under the PF-ODE of an AR teacher. Distilling an AR student from a bidirectional teacher violates this condition, preventing recovery of the teacher's flow map and instead inducing a conditional-expectation solution, which degrades performance. To address this issue, we propose Causal Forcing that uses an AR teacher for ODE initialization, thereby bridging the architectural gap. Empirical results show that our method outperforms all baselines across all metrics, surpassing the SOTA Self Forcing by 19.3\% in Dynamic Degree, 8.7\% in VisionReward, and 16.7\% in Instruction Following. Project page and the code: https://thu-ml.github.io/CausalForcing.github.io/{https://thu-ml.github.io/CausalForcing.github.io/}

Generating long-form storytelling videos with consistent visual narratives remains a significant challenge in video synthesis. We present a novel framework, dataset, and a model that address three critical limitations: background consistency across shots, seamless multi-subject shot-to-shot transitions, and scalability to hour-long narratives. Our approach introduces a background-consistent generation pipeline that maintains visual coherence across scenes while preserving character identity and spatial relationships. We further propose a transition-aware video synthesis module that generates smooth shot transitions for complex scenarios involving multiple subjects entering or exiting frames, going beyond the single-subject limitations of prior work. To support this, we contribute with a synthetic dataset of 10,000 multi-subject transition sequences covering underrepresented dynamic scene compositions. On VBench, InfinityStory achieves the highest Background Consistency (88.94), highest Subject Consistency (82.11), and the best overall average rank (2.80), showing improved stability, smoother transitions, and better temporal coherence.

Creating graphic layouts is a fundamental step in graphic designs. In this work, we present a novel generative model named LayoutDiffusion for automatic layout generation. As layout is typically represented as a sequence of discrete tokens, LayoutDiffusion models layout generation as a discrete denoising diffusion process. It learns to reverse a mild forward process, in which layouts become increasingly chaotic with the growth of forward steps and layouts in the neighboring steps do not differ too much. Designing such a mild forward process is however very challenging as layout has both categorical attributes and ordinal attributes. To tackle the challenge, we summarize three critical factors for achieving a mild forward process for the layout, i.e., legality, coordinate proximity and type disruption. Based on the factors, we propose a block-wise transition matrix coupled with a piece-wise linear noise schedule. Experiments on RICO and PubLayNet datasets show that LayoutDiffusion outperforms state-of-the-art approaches significantly. Moreover, it enables two conditional layout generation tasks in a plug-and-play manner without re-training and achieves better performance than existing methods.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

On-policy distillation (OPD) consolidates expert capabilities into a single student by matching teacher and student final-layer distributions on student-generated rollouts. We investigate whether depthwise prediction transitions, the changes in predictions between layers, can provide additional task-relevant supervision. Our diagnostic study finds that stronger teacher--student agreement in intermediate transitions is associated with higher answer correctness within questions, with correct responses exhibiting lower mean transition KL across all measured intermediate layer pairs. These observations motivate On-Policy Transition Distillation (OPTD), which augments final-layer distribution matching by aligning teacher and student layer-to-layer log-probability increments on student-generated rollouts. Evaluations across three backbones and eight benchmarks spanning mathematics, coding, and instruction following show that OPTD achieves the best or tied-best overall performance in both dual- and three-domain distillation. In the three-domain setting, OPTD recovers approx 90% of the overall teacher--student capability gap, compared with approx 75% for OPD.

Diffusion models have quickly risen in popularity for their ability to model complex distributions and perform effective posterior sampling. Unfortunately, the iterative nature of these generative models makes them computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time sequential inverse problems such as ultrasound imaging. Considering the strong temporal structure across sequences of frames, we propose a novel approach that models the transition dynamics to improve the efficiency of sequential diffusion posterior sampling in conditional image synthesis. Through modeling sequence data using a video vision transformer (ViViT) transition model based on previous diffusion outputs, we can initialize the reverse diffusion trajectory at a lower noise scale, greatly reducing the number of iterations required for convergence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real-world dataset of high frame rate cardiac ultrasound images and show that it achieves the same performance as a full diffusion trajectory while accelerating inference 25times, enabling real-time posterior sampling. Furthermore, we show that the addition of a transition model improves the PSNR up to 8\% in cases with severe motion. Our method opens up new possibilities for real-time applications of diffusion models in imaging and other domains requiring real-time inference.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Water looks unchanged as it warms, then at a critical point it boils. We ask whether long-horizon language agents show an analogous transition in their implicit world models. In some parameter settings, changing state load by a small amount, or adding a single step of horizon, leaves behavior nearly unchanged; near a critical boundary, the same small change causes a sudden world collapse. We study this effect in a deterministic task family with exact per-step gold state. A large grid search over state cardinality, dependency density, horizon, branching, observation mode, and mutation rate reveals a phase diagram: a solved plateau, a narrow transition band, and a collapse floor. Per-step traces show the mechanism: world-state fidelity fails before action validity, so the agent is not merely choosing a bad action; it is acting from a corrupted world. Stronger models translate the critical boundary but do not remove the qualitative transition. These results make world-model collapse a measurable bottleneck for long-horizon agents.

This paper reformulates the Greenwood and Guner (2009) marriage and divorce model in continuous time using the HACT methods of Achdou et al. (2022). Replacing the AR(1) match quality process with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process yields a tridiagonal generator, reducing the computational complexity of both the value function and stationary distribution calculations from quadratic to linear in the number of grid points. The continuous-time model closely replicates the discrete-time equilibrium across all key outcomes, including the share of married households, the marriage rate, and the divorce rate, while achieving substantial gains in computation time and memory usage.

Cinematic video generation requires both temporal inference from limited inputs (i.e., sparse rather than frame-by-frame guidance) and factor-aware control of character, scene, action, and camera. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) offer useful priors for both capabilities, but their representations are not automatically actionable for video generation: a Video Diffusion Transformer (DiT) may bypass them through native conditioning pathways, and using them does not ensure either factor-aware control or generation-compatible temporal prediction. We propose Factor-Aware Predictive Learning (FAPL), which establishes effective MLLM latent use as a shared prerequisite and then targets the two capabilities with complementary learning signals. First, latent-only generator grounding trains the DiT with a frozen MLLM and connector, strengthening the DiT's use of MLLM latents for generation. Second, for factor-aware control, paired videos specify a target-factor change and non-target preservation, and factor-span replacement trains the DiT to realize this relationship in its output. Third, for temporal inference, text-only and text-plus-complete-video observations share a video target, and the trained DiT is then frozen while the MLLM and connector are optimized through it. This final stage trains limited-input representations for generation while retaining complete-observation reconstruction as a complementary training mode. Extensive experiments demonstrate our consistently better performance on three cinematic video generation tasks (i.e., sparse-to-video, factor-aware editing, and multi-shot generation) over baselines and validate FAPL's contributions to MLLM feature use, temporal control, and factor coordination.

While the community of 3D point cloud generation has witnessed a big growth in recent years, there still lacks an effective way to enable intuitive user control in the generation process, hence limiting the general utility of such methods. Since an intuitive way of decomposing a shape is through its parts, we propose to tackle the task of controllable part-based point cloud generation. We introduce DiffFacto, a novel probabilistic generative model that learns the distribution of shapes with part-level control. We propose a factorization that models independent part style and part configuration distributions and presents a novel cross-diffusion network that enables us to generate coherent and plausible shapes under our proposed factorization. Experiments show that our method is able to generate novel shapes with multiple axes of control. It achieves state-of-the-art part-level generation quality and generates plausible and coherent shapes while enabling various downstream editing applications such as shape interpolation, mixing, and transformation editing. Project website: https://difffacto.github.io/

Large-language models (LLMs) are rapidly becoming part of human culture, reshaping how information is produced, transmitted, and used. Here we propose that their diffusion can be understood through a viral analogy, with LLM use spreading through populations, becoming embedded in cognitive and cultural practices. We model transitions among uncoupled, coupled, and persistently dependent users, and show that the interplay between social transmission, recovery, and collective reinforcement can generate tipping points and technological lock-in. A central consequence is the possibility of runaway dynamics: once a critical threshold is crossed, small increases in adoption can trigger rapid population-level shifts toward persistent dependence, with abrupt losses in cognitive competence. The same framework, however, identifies conditions for cognitive immunization, based on reducing transmission and facilitating reversibility. Our results highlight how LLM adoption may involve nonlinear collective transitions with important consequences for cognitive autonomy.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) (Ho et al. 2020) have shown impressive results on image and waveform generation in continuous state spaces. Here, we introduce Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (D3PMs), diffusion-like generative models for discrete data that generalize the multinomial diffusion model of Hoogeboom et al. 2021, by going beyond corruption processes with uniform transition probabilities. This includes corruption with transition matrices that mimic Gaussian kernels in continuous space, matrices based on nearest neighbors in embedding space, and matrices that introduce absorbing states. The third allows us to draw a connection between diffusion models and autoregressive and mask-based generative models. We show that the choice of transition matrix is an important design decision that leads to improved results in image and text domains. We also introduce a new loss function that combines the variational lower bound with an auxiliary cross entropy loss. For text, this model class achieves strong results on character-level text generation while scaling to large vocabularies on LM1B. On the image dataset CIFAR-10, our models approach the sample quality and exceed the log-likelihood of the continuous-space DDPM model.

World models enable agents to anticipate the effects of their actions by internalizing environment dynamics. In enterprise systems, however, these dynamics are often defined by tenant-specific business logic that varies across deployments and evolves over time, making models trained on historical transitions brittle under deployment shift. We ask a question the world-models literature has not addressed: when the rules can be read at inference time, does an agent still need to learn them? We argue, and demonstrate empirically, that in settings where transition dynamics are configurable and readable, runtime discovery complements offline training by grounding predictions in the active system instance. We propose enterprise discovery agents, which recover relevant transition dynamics at runtime by reading the system's configuration rather than relying solely on internalized representations. We introduce CascadeBench, a reasoning-focused benchmark for enterprise cascade prediction that adopts the evaluation methodology of World of Workflows on diverse synthetic environments, and use it together with deployment-shift evaluation to show that offline-trained world models can perform well in-distribution but degrade as dynamics change, whereas discovery-based agents are more robust under shift by grounding their predictions in the current instance. Our findings suggest that, in configurable enterprise environments, agents should not rely solely on fixed internalized dynamics, but should incorporate mechanisms for discovering relevant transition logic at runtime.

Discrete denoising diffusion models (DDMs) have recently emerged as a compelling alternative to autoregressive (AR) modeling for discrete data, offering parallel generation and iterative global refinement capabilities. Unlike continuous diffusion, where the state space is fixed, DDMs are fundamentally shaped by how the discrete state space is constructed: the tokenization scheme, the vocabulary topology, and domain-specific structural alphabets. This work introduces a unified conceptual framework that views discrete diffusion models through the construction of the underlying discrete state space. Within this framework, existing formulations, including transition-matrix, masking/absorbing-state, and score/ratio-based approaches, emerge as different instantiations of a common design space. The framework further exposes common design trade-offs across training objectives, inference algorithms, scaling behavior, systems optimization, and evaluation protocols, suggesting several promising directions for future research.

We propose Framer for interactive frame interpolation, which targets producing smoothly transitioning frames between two images as per user creativity. Concretely, besides taking the start and end frames as inputs, our approach supports customizing the transition process by tailoring the trajectory of some selected keypoints. Such a design enjoys two clear benefits. First, incorporating human interaction mitigates the issue arising from numerous possibilities of transforming one image to another, and in turn enables finer control of local motions. Second, as the most basic form of interaction, keypoints help establish the correspondence across frames, enhancing the model to handle challenging cases (e.g., objects on the start and end frames are of different shapes and styles). It is noteworthy that our system also offers an "autopilot" mode, where we introduce a module to estimate the keypoints and refine the trajectory automatically, to simplify the usage in practice. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the appealing performance of Framer on various applications, such as image morphing, time-lapse video generation, cartoon interpolation, etc. The code, the model, and the interface will be released to facilitate further research.

Current video diffusion models achieve impressive generation quality but struggle in interactive applications due to bidirectional attention dependencies. The generation of a single frame requires the model to process the entire sequence, including the future. We address this limitation by adapting a pretrained bidirectional diffusion transformer to a causal transformer that generates frames on-the-fly. To further reduce latency, we extend distribution matching distillation (DMD) to videos, distilling 50-step diffusion model into a 4-step generator. To enable stable and high-quality distillation, we introduce a student initialization scheme based on teacher's ODE trajectories, as well as an asymmetric distillation strategy that supervises a causal student model with a bidirectional teacher. This approach effectively mitigates error accumulation in autoregressive generation, allowing long-duration video synthesis despite training on short clips. Our model supports fast streaming generation of high quality videos at 9.4 FPS on a single GPU thanks to KV caching. Our approach also enables streaming video-to-video translation, image-to-video, and dynamic prompting in a zero-shot manner. We will release the code based on an open-source model in the future.

Recent advances have substantially improved real-time interactive video generation in the autoregressive regime. However, most existing few-step autoregressive video generation methods, often distilled from a corresponding many-step teacher, default to a 4-step sampling configuration, which still incurs considerable latency during deployment and suffers from severe quality degradation when the number of sampling steps is further reduced, particularly in the one-step setting. Trajectory-style consistency distillation methods often produce videos with weak dynamics, while DMD-based approaches, such as Self-Forcing, tend to yield blurry frames. To address this challenge, we propose One-Forcing, a simple yet effective approach which augments the DMD objective with an auxiliary GAN loss for high-quality and efficient one-step video generation. Experiments on VBench show that One-Forcing achieves a total score of 83.76, establishing state-of-the-art performance among one-step causal video generation methods and remaining competitive with strong many-step approaches. We further demonstrate that one-step framewise autoregressive generation can be achieved stably with merely one-third of the training cost of the chunkwise model, a setting that prior methods have failed to achieve successfully.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

We introduce Causal Diffusion as the autoregressive (AR) counterpart of Diffusion models. It is a next-token(s) forecasting framework that is friendly to both discrete and continuous modalities and compatible with existing next-token prediction models like LLaMA and GPT. While recent works attempt to combine diffusion with AR models, we show that introducing sequential factorization to a diffusion model can substantially improve its performance and enables a smooth transition between AR and diffusion generation modes. Hence, we propose CausalFusion - a decoder-only transformer that dual-factorizes data across sequential tokens and diffusion noise levels, leading to state-of-the-art results on the ImageNet generation benchmark while also enjoying the AR advantage of generating an arbitrary number of tokens for in-context reasoning. We further demonstrate CausalFusion's multimodal capabilities through a joint image generation and captioning model, and showcase CausalFusion's ability for zero-shot in-context image manipulations. We hope that this work could provide the community with a fresh perspective on training multimodal models over discrete and continuous data.

Recent advances in generative modeling with diffusion processes (DPs) enabled breakthroughs in image synthesis. Despite impressive image quality, these models have various prompt compliance problems, including low recall in generating multiple objects, difficulty in generating text in images, and meeting constraints like object locations and pose. For fine-grained editing and manipulation, they also require fine-grained semantic or instance maps that are tedious to produce manually. While prompt compliance can be enhanced by addition of loss functions at inference, this is time consuming and does not scale to complex scenes. To overcome these limitations, this work introduces a new family of Factor Graph Diffusion Models (FG-DMs) that models the joint distribution of images and conditioning variables, such as semantic, sketch, depth or normal maps via a factor graph decomposition. This joint structure has several advantages, including support for efficient sampling based prompt compliance schemes, which produce images of high object recall, semi-automated fine-grained editing, text-based editing of conditions with noise inversion, explainability at intermediate levels, ability to produce labeled datasets for the training of downstream models such as segmentation or depth, training with missing data, and continual learning where new conditioning variables can be added with minimal or no modifications to the existing structure. We propose an implementation of FG-DMs by adapting a pre-trained Stable Diffusion (SD) model to implement all FG-DM factors, using only COCO dataset, and show that it is effective in generating images with 15\% higher recall than SD while retaining its generalization ability. We introduce an attention distillation loss that encourages consistency among the attention maps of all factors, improving the fidelity of the generated conditions and image.

Agents operating in complex software environments benefit from reasoning about the consequences of their actions, as even a single incorrect user interface (UI) operation can derail long, artifact-preserving workflows. This challenge is particularly acute for computer-using scenarios, where real execution does not support counterfactual exploration, making large-scale trial-and-error learning and planning impractical despite the environment being fully digital and deterministic. We introduce the Computer-Using World Model (CUWM), a world model for desktop software that predicts the next UI state given the current state and a candidate action. CUWM adopts a two-stage factorization of UI dynamics: it first predicts a textual description of agent-relevant state changes, and then realizes these changes visually to synthesize the next screenshot. CUWM is trained on offline UI transitions collected from agents interacting with real Microsoft Office applications, and further refined with a lightweight reinforcement learning stage that aligns textual transition predictions with the structural requirements of computer-using environments. We evaluate CUWM via test-time action search, where a frozen agent uses the world model to simulate and compare candidate actions before execution. Across a range of Office tasks, world-model-guided test-time scaling improves decision quality and execution robustness.

Signal decay and regime shifts pose recurring challenges for data-driven investment strategies in non-stationary markets. Conventional time-series and machine learning approaches, which rely primarily on historical correlations, often struggle to generalize when the economic environment changes. While large language models (LLMs) offer strong capabilities for processing unstructured information, their potential to support quantitative factor screening through explicit economic reasoning remains underexplored. Existing factor-based methods typically reduce alphas to numerical time series, overlooking the semantic rationale that determines when a factor is economically relevant. We propose Alpha-R1, an 8B-parameter reasoning model trained via reinforcement learning for context-aware alpha screening. Alpha-R1 reasons over factor logic and real-time news to evaluate alpha relevance under changing market conditions, selectively activating or deactivating factors based on contextual consistency. Empirical results across multiple asset pools show that Alpha-R1 consistently outperforms benchmark strategies and exhibits improved robustness to alpha decay. The full implementation and resources are available at https://github.com/FinStep-AI/Alpha-R1.

Sparse matrix factorization is the problem of approximating a matrix Z by a product of J sparse factors X^{(J)} X^{(J-1)} ldots X^{(1)}. This paper focuses on identifiability issues that appear in this problem, in view of better understanding under which sparsity constraints the problem is well-posed. We give conditions under which the problem of factorizing a matrix into two sparse factors admits a unique solution, up to unavoidable permutation and scaling equivalences. Our general framework considers an arbitrary family of prescribed sparsity patterns, allowing us to capture more structured notions of sparsity than simply the count of nonzero entries. These conditions are shown to be related to essential uniqueness of exact matrix decomposition into a sum of rank-one matrices, with structured sparsity constraints. In particular, in the case of fixed-support sparse matrix factorization, we give a general sufficient condition for identifiability based on rank-one matrix completability, and we derive from it a completion algorithm that can verify if this sufficient condition is satisfied, and recover the entries in the two sparse factors if this is the case. A companion paper further exploits these conditions to derive identifiability properties and theoretically sound factorization methods for multi-layer sparse matrix factorization with support constraints associated to some well-known fast transforms such as the Hadamard or the Discrete Fourier Transforms.

Autoregressive video diffusion with causal diffusion transformers has emerged as a major paradigm for real-time streaming video generation and action-conditioned interactive world models. In this work, we extend rCM, an advanced diffusion distillation framework, to autoregressive video diffusion. The core philosophy of rCM lies in the complementarity between forward and reverse divergences, represented by consistency models (CMs) and distribution matching distillation (DMD), respectively, in diffusion distillation. This philosophy naturally carries over to the autoregressive setting, where teacher-forcing (TF) provides an offline, forward-divergence causal training paradigm, while self-forcing (SF) corresponds to an on-policy, reverse-divergence refinement. Our contributions are: (1) through extensive experiments, we show that teacher-forcing CM is currently the best complement to self-forcing DMD as an initialization strategy (2) we present the first implementation of teacher-forcing-based continuous-time CMs (e.g., sCM/MeanFlow) for autoregressive video diffusion, enabled by our custom-mask FlashAttention-2 JVP kernel, achieving 10times faster convergence compared to discrete-time CMs (dCMs) (3) we introduce Causal-rCM, a leading, unified, and scalable algorithm-infrastructure open recipe for diffusion distillation and causal training (4) we achieve state-of-the-art streaming video generation performance in both frame-wise and chunk-wise settings, using only synthetic data for training. Notably, our distilled 2-step causal Wan2.1-1.3B model achieves a VBench-T2V score of 84.63 with only 1 or 2 sampling steps. We further apply Causal-rCM to Cosmos 3, an advanced omnimodal world foundation model for physical AI with action-conditioned generation capability, enabling an interactive world model.

Understanding physical transformation processes is crucial for both human cognition and artificial intelligence systems, particularly from an egocentric perspective, which serves as a key bridge between humans and machines in action modeling. We define this modeling process as Egocentric Instructed Visual State Transition (EIVST), which involves generating intermediate frames that depict object transformations between initial and target states under a brief action instruction. EIVST poses two challenges for current generative models: (1) understanding the visual scenes of the initial and target states and reasoning about transformation steps from an egocentric view, and (2) generating a consistent intermediate transition that follows the given instruction while preserving object appearance across the two visual states. To address these challenges, we propose the EgoIn framework. It first infers the multi-step transition process between two given states using TransitionVLM, fine-tuned on our curated dataset to better adapt to this task and reduce hallucinated information. It then generates a sequence of frames based on transition conditions produced by the proposed Transition Conditioning module. Additionally, we introduce Object-aware Auxiliary Supervision to preserve consistent object appearance throughout the transition. Extensive experiments on human-object and robot-object interaction datasets demonstrate EgoIn's superior performance in generating semantically meaningful and visually coherent transformation sequences.

World models for embodied AI must be physically viable: constructed to answer intervention queries by representing the physical structure governing action outcomes, rather than merely predicting future observations. Existing observation-predictive world models can produce visually plausible but physically wrong rollouts. This failure is structural; distinct physical systems can look identical yet diverge under intervention. We expose this problem with controlled benchmarks that fix the visible scene while varying latent physics. We show that such models may recommend infeasible actions, mispredict interaction outcomes, or certify unsafe behavior. We argue that embodied AI requires world models that identify the simplest physical abstraction sufficient to answer an intervention query. Such a model comprises modular components, including environment representation, latent state and parameter estimation, action specification, interventional dynamics, and query-level response. An autonomous orchestrator should identify the relevant abstraction and compose compatible learned and structured components per query. When closed-form physics is unavailable, uncertain, or costly, the transition model may be analytic, simulated, learned, or hybrid, but it must preserve the structure that determines interventional outcomes. This decomposition makes the model interpretable, its components verifiable, and its outputs auditable against the query. It also provides a design principle for new world models and a feasibility test for existing ones: the right abstraction is not the most detailed model of the world, but the simplest model that preserves the distinctions relevant to the query. We demonstrate this approach on queries that existing systems fail to answer correctly, and outline how an orchestrator can dynamically assemble and adapt physically viable models for planning, control, and verification.

Video generation models hold substantial potential in areas such as filmmaking. However, current video diffusion models need high computational costs and produce suboptimal results due to high complexity of video generation task. In this paper, we propose ConFiner, an efficient high-quality video generation framework that decouples video generation into easier subtasks: structure control and spatial-temporal refinement. It can generate high-quality videos with chain of off-the-shelf diffusion model experts, each expert responsible for a decoupled subtask. During the refinement, we introduce coordinated denoising, which can merge multiple diffusion experts' capabilities into a single sampling. Furthermore, we design ConFiner-Long framework, which can generate long coherent video with three constraint strategies on ConFiner. Experimental results indicate that with only 10\% of the inference cost, our ConFiner surpasses representative models like Lavie and Modelscope across all objective and subjective metrics. And ConFiner-Long can generate high-quality and coherent videos with up to 600 frames.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains students using teacher feedback on their own sampled responses, yet how prompt choice shapes transfer across teacher-student pairs remains poorly understood. We systematically study prompt quantity, source, and selection across RL- and SFT-continuation pairs and cross-model settings. We find that OPD can be highly prompt-efficient: a few prompts can approach large-pool performance, with four DAPO prompts matching the observed mathematics score of 3,840 DeepMath prompts. However, prompt utility is relational rather than intrinsic: changing only the teacher can reverse the relative effectiveness of mathematics and code prompts. To characterize these transfer differences, we analyze parameter and functional changes across prompt supports and model pairs. Functional alignment with the teacher varies across supports and target tasks; in continuation pairs, teacher-aligned prediction changes can coexist with weak parameter alignment. Continued OPD on effective supports can restore performance after unfavorable transfer. Finally, targeted selection does not consistently outperform uniform random sampling, and filtering out a source that performs poorly alone yields no consistent gain across three paired support draws. Overall, our results distinguish prompt efficiency from prompt interchangeability and show that effective data choice depends on the teacher-student pair and target capability, with random sampling providing a competitive baseline in the studied settings.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Communication requires a shared code, and any change to it must be coordinated between senders and receivers to avoid a breakdown of communication. The honeybee waggle dance illustrates this problem: species with horizontal combs point directly at a food source, while species with vertical combs cannot point directly and instead reference the dance to gravity, decoded against the position of the sun. We model the emergence and evolutionary transition between these two codes in populations of bee-like agents, with selection acting at the level of colonies. In a horizontal-comb model, we find that direct pointing evolves readily when food is moderately hard to find by random search alone, whether because sites are few and large or many and small, and fails when food is too sparse to spark dances or so abundant that it is found without signaling. Adding an exogenous benefit for vertical combs, we then find that the transition to the gravity-referenced code is driven mainly by the mutation rate and the magnitude of this benefit, with the coupling between sender and receiver mutations playing a further role at low mutation rates. Given a favorable confluence of these factors, the transition proceeds reliably and without a breakdown of communication.

In recent years, diffusion-based models have demonstrated exceptional performance in searching for simultaneously stable, unique, and novel (S.U.N.) crystalline materials. However, most of these models don't have the ability to change the number of atoms in the crystal during the generation process, which limits the variability of model sampling trajectories. In this paper, we demonstrate the severity of this restriction and introduce a simple yet powerful technique, mirage infusion, which enables diffusion models to change the state of the atoms that make up the crystal from existent to non-existent (mirage) and vice versa. We show that this technique improves model quality by up to times2.5 compared to the same model without this modification. The resulting model, Mirage Atom Diffusion (MiAD), is an equivariant joint diffusion model for de novo crystal generation that is capable of altering the number of atoms during the generation process. MiAD achieves an 8.2% S.U.N. rate on the MP-20 dataset, which substantially exceeds existing state-of-the-art approaches. The source code can be found at https://github.com/andrey-okhotin/miad.git{github.com/andrey-okhotin/miad}.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

We obtain closed-form solutions of several inhomogeneous Lienard equations by the factorization method. The two factorization conditions involved in the method are turned into a system of first-order differential equations containing the forcing term. In this way, one can find the forcing terms that lead to integrable cases. Because of the reduction of order feature of factorization, the solutions are simultaneously solutions of first-order differential equations with polynomial nonlinearities. The illustrative examples of Lienard solutions obtained in this way generically have rational parts, and consequently display singularities.

Transitioning bidirectional video diffusion models into an autoregressive paradigm improves the interactivity of video world models, but existing causal pipelines need many stages (control fine-tuning, autoregressive training, causal initialization, few-step distillation) and still trail bidirectional models in quality due to error accumulation. Recent world models such as Yume-1.5 and Matrix-Game-3.0 instead adopt a bidirectional autoregressive approach, gaining fidelity and stable long-horizon rollout from self-correcting error propagation, yet open-source frameworks (e.g., minWM) support only causal models. We present BiWM, the first full-stack framework for interactive video world models under the bidirectional autoregressive paradigm, jointly optimizing generation quality and inference speed. From a pretrained video backbone, BiWM injects camera control by fine-tuning, then runs a few-step Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) stage that turns the backbone into an action/camera-controllable world model: just two training stages instead of four in minWM, converging in a few hundred steps on 8xH200 GPUs. A single recipe spans Wan2.1-1.3B, Wan2.2-5B, HunyuanVideo-1.5-8B, and LTX-2.3-22B, and also supports secondary fine-tuning of existing bidirectional models. BiWM enables real-world camera control where minWM loses controllability, integrates pluggable history compression (FramePack-style and PackForcing-style) for long rollouts, and offers an optional NVFP4 4-bit training/inference pipeline. To counter DMD's mode-seeking degradation, we add GAN and mass-covering forward-KL objectives that preserve scene dynamics. We open-source BiWM for resource-constrained research and high-fidelity environment simulation.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating realistic images but suffer from generating accurate human hands, such as incorrect finger counts or irregular shapes. This difficulty arises from the complex task of learning the physical structure and pose of hands from training images, which involves extensive deformations and occlusions. For correct hand generation, our paper introduces a lightweight post-processing solution called HandRefiner. HandRefiner employs a conditional inpainting approach to rectify malformed hands while leaving other parts of the image untouched. We leverage the hand mesh reconstruction model that consistently adheres to the correct number of fingers and hand shape, while also being capable of fitting the desired hand pose in the generated image. Given a generated failed image due to malformed hands, we utilize ControlNet modules to re-inject such correct hand information. Additionally, we uncover a phase transition phenomenon within ControlNet as we vary the control strength. It enables us to take advantage of more readily available synthetic data without suffering from the domain gap between realistic and synthetic hands. Experiments demonstrate that HandRefiner can significantly improve the generation quality quantitatively and qualitatively. The code is available at https://github.com/wenquanlu/HandRefiner .

Recent progress has shown promise in distilling multi-step video diffusion models into efficient few-step students. Among them, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) and its successor DMD2 achieved strong generation quality and fast convergence. However, due to the nature of the reverse Kullback--Leibler (KL) objective, these methods exhibit two persistent failure modes: a substantial drop in sample diversity, and visibly over-saturated outputs that deviate from real-video appearance. In this work, we propose Data-Forcing Distillation (DFD), a simple post-training framework that restores diversity and fidelity in DMD with only a single-line of code change. At its core is the teacher score discrepancy to guide the student toward the real-data distribution, pulling it to missing modes (mitigating mode collapse) and away from problematic modes absent in real data (avoiding over-saturation). We provide an in-depth theoretical analysis of our framework and validate our approach on text-to-video, image-to-video, and autoregressive video generation. With only 100--300 steps of finetuning, DFD effectively restores diversity and fidelity on both Wan2.1-1.3B and Cosmos-Predict2.5-2B model, resolving the over-saturation artifacts with significantly better video dynamics and appearance, and even outperforms the teacher model.

We present Generative Anchored Fields (GAF), a generative model that learns independent endpoint predictors, J (noise) and K (data), from any point on a linear bridge. Unlike existing approaches that use a single trajectory or score predictor, GAF is trained to recover the bridge endpoints directly via coordinate learning. The velocity field v=K-J emerges from their time-conditioned disagreement. This factorization enables Transport Algebra: algebraic operations on multiple J/K heads for compositional control. With class-specific K_n heads, GAF defines directed transport maps between a shared base noise distribution and multiple data domains, allowing controllable interpolation, multi-class composition, and semantic editing. This is achieved either directly on the predicted data coordinates (K) using Iterative Endpoint Refinement (IER), a novel sampler that achieves high-quality generation in 5-8 steps, or on the emergent velocity field (v). We achieve strong sample quality (FID 7.51 on ImageNet 256times256 and 7.27 on CelebA-HQ 256times 256, without classifier-free guidance) while treating compositional generation as an architectural primitive. Code available at https://github.com/IDLabMedia/GAF.

Our understanding of the temporal dynamics of the Earth's surface has been advanced by deep vision models, which often require lots of labeled multi-temporal images for training. However, collecting, preprocessing, and annotating multi-temporal remote sensing images at scale is non-trivial since it is expensive and knowledge-intensive. In this paper, we present change data generators based on generative models, which are cheap and automatic, alleviating these data problems. Our main idea is to simulate a stochastic change process over time. We describe the stochastic change process as a probabilistic graphical model (GPCM), which factorizes the complex simulation problem into two more tractable sub-problems, i.e., change event simulation and semantic change synthesis. To solve these two problems, we present Changen2, a GPCM with a resolution-scalable diffusion transformer which can generate time series of images and their semantic and change labels from labeled or unlabeled single-temporal images. Changen2 is a generative change foundation model that can be trained at scale via self-supervision, and can produce change supervisory signals from unlabeled single-temporal images. Unlike existing foundation models, Changen2 synthesizes change data to train task-specific foundation models for change detection. The resulting model possesses inherent zero-shot change detection capabilities and excellent transferability. Experiments suggest Changen2 has superior spatiotemporal scalability, e.g., Changen2 model trained on 256^2 pixel single-temporal images can yield time series of any length and resolutions of 1,024^2 pixels. Changen2 pre-trained models exhibit superior zero-shot performance (narrowing the performance gap to 3% on LEVIR-CD and approximately 10% on both S2Looking and SECOND, compared to fully supervised counterparts) and transferability across multiple types of change tasks.

Few-step distillation reduces the sampling cost of diffusion and flow models, but existing approaches often require auxiliary score models or specialized architectures. We show that simple on-policy velocity regression already provides a strong foundation for 4-NFE generation. To represent teacher velocity variation within each coarse transition, we introduce Pivot, a training-only residual proxy that separates local corrections from the student's interval-mean prediction. We further repel the student from weaker teacher predictions, providing a lightweight mechanism for avoiding undesirable modes. The resulting framework, Simplified Matching Distillation (SMD), remains entirely regression-based, requires neither online score estimation nor adversarial training, and leaves the deployed generator unchanged. We evaluate SMD on image generation and editing, 3D generation, video synthesis, and joint audio--video generation, scaling to 33 billion parameters. At 4-NFE, SMD outperforms strong few-step baselines and surpasses multi-step teachers on several benchmarks. It also supports cross-model, multi-teacher, and causal-video distillation.

Recent advances in text-to-video diffusion models have enabled high-quality video synthesis, but controllable generation remains challenging, particularly under limited data and compute. Existing fine-tuning methods for conditional generation often rely on external encoders or architectural modifications, which demand large datasets and are typically restricted to spatially aligned conditioning, limiting flexibility and scalability. In this work, we introduce Temporal In-Context Fine-Tuning (TIC-FT), an efficient and versatile approach for adapting pretrained video diffusion models to diverse conditional generation tasks. Our key idea is to concatenate condition and target frames along the temporal axis and insert intermediate buffer frames with progressively increasing noise levels. These buffer frames enable smooth transitions, aligning the fine-tuning process with the pretrained model's temporal dynamics. TIC-FT requires no architectural changes and achieves strong performance with as few as 10-30 training samples. We validate our method across a range of tasks, including image-to-video and video-to-video generation, using large-scale base models such as CogVideoX-5B and Wan-14B. Extensive experiments show that TIC-FT outperforms existing baselines in both condition fidelity and visual quality, while remaining highly efficient in both training and inference. For additional results, visit https://kinam0252.github.io/TIC-FT/

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

We present a new estimator for causal effects with panel data that builds on insights behind the widely used difference in differences and synthetic control methods. Relative to these methods we find, both theoretically and empirically, that this "synthetic difference in differences" estimator has desirable robustness properties, and that it performs well in settings where the conventional estimators are commonly used in practice. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimator when the systematic part of the outcome model includes latent unit factors interacted with latent time factors, and we present conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality.

We characterize when a banded totally positive matrix admits a positive bidiagonal factorization. In finite dimension such a factorization always exists. For semi-infinite matrices of arbitrary finite bandwidth, existence is equivalent to convergence of a finite family of positive series determined by the Metelmann factors. Their reciprocals are the limiting values of scalar Jacobi continued fractions. We also prove that every bounded banded totally positive matrix can be approximated in operator norm by matrices admitting positive bidiagonal factorizations, through perturbations confined to a fixed initial block. For banded Toeplitz matrices, the negative roots of the polynomial symbol give a global factorization with bounded factors. Ordered partitions of these roots determine explicit mixed-type multiple orthogonal polynomials. Applying the existing spectral Favard theorem, we compute their matrix of positive measures: its support is one interval, and the measure is purely absolutely continuous with an algebraic density of rank one. These formulas also give transition and first-return laws for the associated killed random walks.

Long-horizon search requires agents to acquire relevant evidence and integrate it into an evolving research state. Existing methods maintain research states to guide exploration or assign turn-level progress signals, yet grounding these signals in explicit, attributable state changes remains underexplored. We introduce ClueFlow, which learns long-horizon search from attributed research-state transitions. ClueFlow constructs Source-State-Final attribution chains that connect evidence-acquiring browser actions, Evidence and Candidate updates, and the final answer supported by those updates. During search, ClueFlow records typed state changes and potentially supporting browser actions, then applies gold-conditioned semantic validation and source tracing after execution. We use this attribution to guide both supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. During SFT, attribution selects which decisions receive supervision with their original interaction contexts. During Turn-PPO, the same attribution augments outcome-based turn advantages with credit assigned along the Source-State-Final chains. Transition-level validation also recovers useful supervision from gold-consistent state changes in trajectories with incorrect final answers. We evaluate ClueFlow across two Qwen backbones and four search benchmarks spanning live-web and fixed-corpus settings, observing consistent gains from SFT and further improvements from PPO. With Qwen3.5-35B-A3B, ClueFlow achieves 60.0% accuracy on BrowseComp and 72.0% on BrowseComp-Plus. In controlled BrowseComp-Plus experiments, attribution-guided SFT matches all-turn exact-context SFT using about 30% of the training tokens, while attribution-guided PPO outperforms outcome-only PPO by 4.1 pp. These results demonstrate that state-transition attribution enables efficient supervision and effective credit assignment for long-horizon search agents.

Generating naturalistic and nuanced listener motions for extended interactions remains an open problem. Existing methods often rely on low-dimensional motion codes for facial behavior generation followed by photorealistic rendering, limiting both visual fidelity and expressive richness. To address these challenges, we introduce DiTaiListener, powered by a video diffusion model with multimodal conditions. Our approach first generates short segments of listener responses conditioned on the speaker's speech and facial motions with DiTaiListener-Gen. It then refines the transitional frames via DiTaiListener-Edit for a seamless transition. Specifically, DiTaiListener-Gen adapts a Diffusion Transformer (DiT) for the task of listener head portrait generation by introducing a Causal Temporal Multimodal Adapter (CTM-Adapter) to process speakers' auditory and visual cues. CTM-Adapter integrates speakers' input in a causal manner into the video generation process to ensure temporally coherent listener responses. For long-form video generation, we introduce DiTaiListener-Edit, a transition refinement video-to-video diffusion model. The model fuses video segments into smooth and continuous videos, ensuring temporal consistency in facial expressions and image quality when merging short video segments produced by DiTaiListener-Gen. Quantitatively, DiTaiListener achieves the state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets in both photorealism (+73.8% in FID on RealTalk) and motion representation (+6.1% in FD metric on VICO) spaces. User studies confirm the superior performance of DiTaiListener, with the model being the clear preference in terms of feedback, diversity, and smoothness, outperforming competitors by a significant margin.

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Diffusion models have been widely used in the generative domain due to their convincing performance in modeling complex data distributions. Moreover, they have shown competitive results on discriminative tasks, such as image segmentation. While diffusion models have also been explored for automatic music transcription, their performance has yet to reach a competitive level. In this paper, we focus on discrete diffusion model's refinement capabilities and present a novel architecture for piano transcription. Our model utilizes Neighborhood Attention layers as the denoising module, gradually predicting the target high-resolution piano roll, conditioned on the finetuned features of a pretrained acoustic model. To further enhance refinement, we devise a novel strategy which applies distinct transition states during training and inference stage of discrete diffusion models. Experiments on the MAESTRO dataset show that our approach outperforms previous diffusion-based piano transcription models and the baseline model in terms of F1 score. Our code is available in https://github.com/hanshounsu/d3rm.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. To extend the generation length and facilitate real-world applications, a majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on the last frame(s) of the previous clip. However, existing autoregressive VDMs are highly inefficient and redundant: The model must re-compute all the conditional frames that are overlapped between adjacent clips. This issue is exacerbated when the conditional frames are extended autoregressively to provide the model with long-term context. In such cases, the computational demands increase significantly (i.e., with a quadratic complexity w.r.t. the autoregression step). In this paper, we propose Ca2-VDM, an efficient autoregressive VDM with Causal generation and Cache sharing. For causal generation, it introduces unidirectional feature computation, which ensures that the cache of conditional frames can be precomputed in previous autoregression steps and reused in every subsequent step, eliminating redundant computations. For cache sharing, it shares the cache across all denoising steps to avoid the huge cache storage cost. Extensive experiments demonstrated that our Ca2-VDM achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative video generation results and significantly improves the generation speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/CausalCache-VDM

We present AnimateDiff-Lightning for lightning-fast video generation. Our model uses progressive adversarial diffusion distillation to achieve new state-of-the-art in few-step video generation. We discuss our modifications to adapt it for the video modality. Furthermore, we propose to simultaneously distill the probability flow of multiple base diffusion models, resulting in a single distilled motion module with broader style compatibility. We are pleased to release our distilled AnimateDiff-Lightning model for the community's use.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

Riemannian diffusion models draw inspiration from standard Euclidean space diffusion models to learn distributions on general manifolds. Unfortunately, the additional geometric complexity renders the diffusion transition term inexpressible in closed form, so prior methods resort to imprecise approximations of the score matching training objective that degrade performance and preclude applications in high dimensions. In this work, we reexamine these approximations and propose several practical improvements. Our key observation is that most relevant manifolds are symmetric spaces, which are much more amenable to computation. By leveraging and combining various ans\"{a}tze, we can quickly compute relevant quantities to high precision. On low dimensional datasets, our correction produces a noticeable improvement, allowing diffusion to compete with other methods. Additionally, we show that our method enables us to scale to high dimensional tasks on nontrivial manifolds. In particular, we model QCD densities on SU(n) lattices and contrastively learned embeddings on high dimensional hyperspheres.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Few-step autoregressive video generators enable streaming generation, yet they run every token through the final denoising step, regardless of how much refinement it needs. We find this uniform computation is often unnecessary: many tokens already closely match their eventual full-step outputs in the initial steps, while others require refinement until the end. We introduce Speculative Forcing, a framework that treats intermediate clean estimates as drafts and predicts when individual tokens can be safely accepted early. Once accepted, a token is frozen as its final output and undergoes no further denoising, while its cached keys and values remain available as context for the remaining tokens. We explore two alternative verifier designs: a training-free one based on similarity to clean content and stability across steps, and a learned one that reads the frozen generator's intermediate features to estimate each token's remaining gap to its full-step output. Across short-video, long-video, and world generation, Speculative Forcing preserves the quality of full-step sampling while substantially reducing computation. On LongLive, it matches the four-step generator with ~1.7 denoising steps per token, running over 1.5x faster at 41.7 and 37.8 fps. On Lingbot-World 2.0, where camera motion continually changes the visible content, it maintains quality with ~2.5 denoising steps per token and runs 1.35x faster at 24.5 fps.

Recent advances in Video Foundation Models (VFMs) have revolutionized human-centric video synthesis, yet fine-grained and independent editing of subjects and scenes remains a critical challenge. Recent attempts to incorporate richer environment control through rigid 3D geometric compositions often encounter a stark trade-off between precise control and generative flexibility. Furthermore, the heavy 3D pre-processing still limits practical scalability. In this paper, we propose ONE-SHOT, a parameter-efficient framework for compositional human-environment video generation. Our key insight is to factorize the generative process into disentangled signals. Specifically, we introduce a canonical-space injection mechanism that decouples human dynamics from environmental cues via cross-attention. We also propose Dynamic-Grounded-RoPE, a novel positional embedding strategy that establishes spatial correspondences between disparate spatial domains without any heuristic 3D alignments. To support long-horizon synthesis, we introduce a Hybrid Context Integration mechanism to maintain subject and scene consistency across minute-level generations. Experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, offering superior structural control and creative diversity for video synthesis. Our project has been available on: https://martayang.github.io/ONE-SHOT/.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Looped Transformers provide a parameter-efficient approach to depth scaling by repeatedly applying shared Transformer blocks. Recent reasoning models have likewise highlighted the value of scaling test-time computation through longer computation trajectories. However, the principles for designing effective loop transitions remain poorly understood. We view the looped hidden state as a fast weight that is updated throughout the depth. We formulate loop transitions as local gradient-based updates, with recurrent blocks predicting implicit targets at each depth. Our framework derives loop transitions in closed form from a projection, a local objective and an optimizer update rule. Mapping representative loop transitions into this framework reveals mismatches between their transitions and projections. We first align the input maps of existing transitions. We then derive OperLoop, which combines explicit weight decay, adaptive step size and a delta objective. The aligned variants reduce training loss and improve average commonsense accuracy. OperLoop improves average generative performance over the compared looped and non-looped baselines under matched training FLOPs. These results support the framework's usefulness for loop design. We extend the analysis to additional loop models and outline a roadmap for future loop transition design.

Text-to-video (T2V) generation has gained significant attention due to its wide applications to video generation, editing, enhancement and translation, \etc. However, high-quality (HQ) video synthesis is extremely challenging because of the diverse and complex motions existed in real world. Most existing works struggle to address this problem by collecting large-scale HQ videos, which are inaccessible to the community. In this work, we show that publicly available limited and low-quality (LQ) data are sufficient to train a HQ video generator without recaptioning or finetuning. We factorize the whole T2V generation process into two steps: generating an image conditioned on a highly descriptive caption, and synthesizing the video conditioned on the generated image and a concise caption of motion details. Specifically, we present Factorized-Dreamer, a factorized spatiotemporal framework with several critical designs for T2V generation, including an adapter to combine text and image embeddings, a pixel-aware cross attention module to capture pixel-level image information, a T5 text encoder to better understand motion description, and a PredictNet to supervise optical flows. We further present a noise schedule, which plays a key role in ensuring the quality and stability of video generation. Our model lowers the requirements in detailed captions and HQ videos, and can be directly trained on limited LQ datasets with noisy and brief captions such as WebVid-10M, largely alleviating the cost to collect large-scale HQ video-text pairs. Extensive experiments in a variety of T2V and image-to-video generation tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed Factorized-Dreamer. Our source codes are available at https://github.com/yangxy/Factorized-Dreamer/.

Transformations produced by image and video generation models often evolve in a highly non-linear manner: long stretches where the content barely changes are followed by sudden, abrupt semantic jumps. To analyze and correct this behavior, we introduce a Semantic Progress Function, a one-dimensional representation that captures how the meaning of a given sequence evolves over time. For each frame, we compute distances between semantic embeddings and fit a smooth curve that reflects the cumulative semantic shift across the sequence. Departures of this curve from a straight line reveal uneven semantic pacing. Building on this insight, we propose a semantic linearization procedure that reparameterizes (or retimes) the sequence so that semantic change unfolds at a constant rate, yielding smoother and more coherent transitions. Beyond linearization, our framework provides a model-agnostic foundation for identifying temporal irregularities, comparing semantic pacing across different generators, and steering both generated and real-world video sequences toward arbitrary target pacing.

Frame inbetweening aims to synthesize intermediate video sequences conditioned on the given start and end frames. Current state-of-the-art methods mainly extend large-scale pre-trained Image-to-Video Diffusion models (I2V-DMs) by incorporating end-frame constraints via directly fine-tuning or omitting training. We identify a critical limitation in their design: Their injections of the end-frame constraint usually utilize the same mechanism that originally imposed the start-frame (single image) constraint. However, since the original I2V-DMs are adequately trained for the start-frame condition in advance, naively introducing the end-frame constraint by the same mechanism with much less (even zero) specialized training probably can't make the end frame have a strong enough impact on the intermediate content like the start frame. This asymmetric control strength of the two frames over the intermediate content likely leads to inconsistent motion or appearance collapse in generated frames. To efficiently achieve symmetric constraints of start and end frames, we propose a novel framework, termed Sci-Fi, which applies a stronger injection for the constraint of a smaller training scale. Specifically, it deals with the start-frame constraint as before, while introducing the end-frame constraint by an improved mechanism. The new mechanism is based on a well-designed lightweight module, named EF-Net, which encodes only the end frame and expands it into temporally adaptive frame-wise features injected into the I2V-DM. This makes the end-frame constraint as strong as the start-frame constraint, enabling our Sci-Fi to produce more harmonious transitions in various scenarios. Extensive experiments prove the superiority of our Sci-Fi compared with other baselines.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

We introduce a novel approach for concept blending in pretrained text-to-image diffusion models, aiming to generate images at the intersection of multiple text prompts. At each time step during diffusion denoising, our algorithm forecasts predictions w.r.t. the generated image and makes informed text conditioning decisions. Central to our method is the unique analogy between diffusion models, which are rooted in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and the Black-Scholes model for financial option pricing. By drawing parallels between key variables in both domains, we derive a robust algorithm for concept blending that capitalizes on the Markovian dynamics of the Black-Scholes framework. Our text-based concept blending algorithm is data-efficient, meaning it does not need additional training. Furthermore, it operates without human intervention or hyperparameter tuning. We highlight the benefits of our approach by comparing it qualitatively and quantitatively to other text based concept blending techniques, including linear interpolation, alternating prompts, step-wise prompt switching, and CLIP-guided prompt selection across various scenarios such as single object per text prompt, multiple objects per text prompt and objects against backgrounds. Our work shows that financially inspired techniques can enhance text-to-image concept blending in generative AI, paving the way for broader innovation. Code is available at https://github.com/divyakraman/BlackScholesDiffusion2024.

Few-step video generation has been significantly advanced by consistency distillation. However, the performance of consistency-distilled models often degrades as more sampling steps are allocated at test time, limiting their effectiveness for any-step video diffusion. This limitation arises because consistency distillation replaces the original probability-flow ODE trajectory with a consistency-sampling trajectory, weakening the desirable test-time scaling behavior of ODE sampling. To address this limitation, we introduce AnyFlow, the first any-step video diffusion distillation framework based on flow maps. Instead of distilling a model for only a few fixed sampling steps, AnyFlow optimizes the full ODE sampling trajectory. To this end, we shift the distillation target from endpoint consistency mapping (z_{t}rightarrow z_{0}) to flow-map transition learning (z_{t}rightarrow z_{r}) over arbitrary time intervals. We further propose Flow Map Backward Simulation, which decomposes a full Euler rollout into shortcut flow-map transitions, enabling efficient on-policy distillation that reduces test-time errors (i.e., discretization error in few-step sampling and exposure bias in causal generation). Extensive experiments across both bidirectional and causal architectures, at scales ranging from 1.3B to 14B parameters, demonstrate that AnyFlow achieves performance matches or surpasses consistency-based counterparts in the few-step regime, while scaling with sampling step budgets.

Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When combined with inference-time guidance, they offer a promising route to high-dimensional non-Gaussian data assimilation (DA), the problem of combining forecasts with observations to estimate latent system states. Existing filters, however, condition on a fixed history and assimilate only the most recent observation, leaving them unable to revise past states when new observations arrive. Estimates then stay tethered to a history that later observations may contradict, and errors accumulate over the assimilation run. To this end, we introduce **DAWIS**, a unified DA method covering filtering, fixed-lag smoothing, and block smoothing within a single framework. DAWIS replaces the single flow time of a state-level prior with a multitask stochastic interpolant over a window of consecutive states, assigning a separate flow time to each. An assimilation cycle inverts the window to a vector of per-state turning points and regenerates it under observation guidance, with the turning points controlling how strongly each state is held fixed, revised, or generated from scratch. The same construction can also absorb the forecast into the assimilation cycle, removing the need for a separate forecasting model. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAWIS improves on both filtering and smoothing baselines under sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations. The code for DAWIS is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAWIS

Few-step diffusion models substantially compress temporal computation, making the spatial cost of each model evaluation an increasingly dominant source of inference latency. Progressive-resolution inference reduces this cost by performing early denoising at low resolution and reserving high-resolution computation for refinement. However, existing methods typically lift intermediate latents directly and rely on subsequent steps to absorb the induced distribution mismatch. In the few-step regime, the limited recovery budget leaves these errors as visible artifacts, constraining how late the transition can occur and, consequently, how efficiently it can be performed. We introduce SelfLift, a self-recovering progressive-resolution framework that derives both transition-repair signals and trajectory-aligned supervision from the generative model itself. SelfLift-zero proposes a training-free Artifact-Aware Consistency Lift, using disagreement between direct latent lifting and pixel-VAE re-encoding as both a localized artifact-risk signal and a model-native correction direction. It enables reliable late transitions without external super-resolution, extra denoiser evaluations, or sampling-schedule modifications. Building on this robust transition, SelfLift-rich performs On-Policy Self Recovery on student-visited states, transferring dense high-resolution guidance from an internal self-teacher while remaining aligned with the altered progressive-resolution dynamics. Across FLUX.2-Klein and Z-Image-Turbo, SelfLift reduces end-to-end latency by 41.5% and 44.1%, respectively. Combined with timestep distillation, it delivers overall speedups of 29.61x and 19.21x over the corresponding 50-step models while preserving competitive generation quality, establishing a stronger speed-quality frontier for few-step diffusion.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Despite significant advances in video synthesis, research into multi-shot video generation remains in its infancy. Even with scaled-up models and massive datasets, the shot transition capabilities remain rudimentary and unstable, largely confining generated videos to single-shot sequences. In this work, we introduce CineTrans, a novel framework for generating coherent multi-shot videos with cinematic, film-style transitions. To facilitate insights into the film editing style, we construct a multi-shot video-text dataset Cine250K with detailed shot annotations. Furthermore, our analysis of existing video diffusion models uncovers a correspondence between attention maps in the diffusion model and shot boundaries, which we leverage to design a mask-based control mechanism that enables transitions at arbitrary positions and transfers effectively in a training-free setting. After fine-tuning on our dataset with the mask mechanism, CineTrans produces cinematic multi-shot sequences while adhering to the film editing style, avoiding unstable transitions or naive concatenations. Finally, we propose specialized evaluation metrics for transition control, temporal consistency and overall quality, and demonstrate through extensive experiments that CineTrans significantly outperforms existing baselines across all criteria.

We present SceneFactor, a diffusion-based approach for large-scale 3D scene generation that enables controllable generation and effortless editing. SceneFactor enables text-guided 3D scene synthesis through our factored diffusion formulation, leveraging latent semantic and geometric manifolds for generation of arbitrary-sized 3D scenes. While text input enables easy, controllable generation, text guidance remains imprecise for intuitive, localized editing and manipulation of the generated 3D scenes. Our factored semantic diffusion generates a proxy semantic space composed of semantic 3D boxes that enables controllable editing of generated scenes by adding, removing, changing the size of the semantic 3D proxy boxes that guides high-fidelity, consistent 3D geometric editing. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach enables high-fidelity 3D scene synthesis with effective controllable editing through our factored diffusion approach.

We introduce Emu Video Edit (EVE), a model that establishes a new state-of-the art in video editing without relying on any supervised video editing data. To develop EVE we separately train an image editing adapter and a video generation adapter, and attach both to the same text-to-image model. Then, to align the adapters towards video editing we introduce a new unsupervised distillation procedure, Factorized Diffusion Distillation. This procedure distills knowledge from one or more teachers simultaneously, without any supervised data. We utilize this procedure to teach EVE to edit videos by jointly distilling knowledge to (i) precisely edit each individual frame from the image editing adapter, and (ii) ensure temporal consistency among the edited frames using the video generation adapter. Finally, to demonstrate the potential of our approach in unlocking other capabilities, we align additional combinations of adapters

Distilling pretrained video diffusion models into few-step autoregressive (AR) generators typically combines student initialization with distribution matching distillation (DMD). An intermediate AR teacher can provide causally compatible targets for ODE initialization. However, causally compatible targets alone do not ensure high-quality generation under a short sampling schedule. We analyze the posterior-mean predictions favored by direct latent regression and empirically find that causal ODE initialization alleviates blur but still leaves fine detail unresolved. To address this limitation, we propose Representation Forcing, which learns few-step causal initialization through representation-space supervision rather than intermediate-teacher trajectory regression. The student is trained with teacher forcing by comparing clean predictions and training targets through normalized features of a frozen video diffusion transformer. This phase reuses the synthetic videos generated by a bidirectional model for AR teacher training and replaces both teacher training and causal ODE distillation, without generating additional causal ODE trajectories. The subsequent asymmetric DMD procedure remains unchanged. Empirical results show that, at four sampling steps, RepForcing better preserves generation quality than intermediate-teacher-based initialization before DMD. After DMD, our four-step chunk-wise model improves VBench Total from 84.04 to 84.66 (+0.62 points) and VisionReward from 6.326 to 10.074 (+59.25%) over the reported causal-ODE-based baseline.

World models must predict how an environment evolves under sequences of actions, enabling agents to compare possible futures and reason about counterfactual actions before acting. Long-horizon prediction is commonly obtained by recursively applying a one-step transition model, but intermediate errors can compound over time. Multi-step dynamics models instead condition on a sequence of future actions and predict their consequences directly, but become harder to learn as horizon grows: the model must track interacting state changes across the trajectory, endpoint supervision provides weak credit assignment, and intermediate predictions can remain plausible while losing information needed for later states. We show that these challenges can be addressed by casting the internal evolution of a multi-step transition as structured reasoning over textual world states: reasoning over sparse state changes reduces the burden of state tracking, a predictive-gain objective rewards the learned state for improving over a matched predictor that conditions on raw history instead, and intermediate predictive rewards supervise each state along the trajectory. Because these intermediate states are explicit textual representations of the world, they provide semantically meaningful targets that can be inspected, scored, and corrected during training. Across ScienceWorld, Jericho, and CEO-Bench, our approach achieves the strongest average long-horizon performance against recursive and non-recursive baselines that condition directly on raw history, with gains increasing at longer horizons. In a controlled counterfactual study, our model is also the only one with statistically significant sensitivity to future actions.

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

Generative inbetweening aims to generate intermediate frame sequences by utilizing two key frames as input. Although remarkable progress has been made in video generation models, generative inbetweening still faces challenges in maintaining temporal stability due to the ambiguous interpolation path between two key frames. This issue becomes particularly severe when there is a large motion gap between input frames. In this paper, we propose a straightforward yet highly effective Frame-wise Conditions-driven Video Generation (FCVG) method that significantly enhances the temporal stability of interpolated video frames. Specifically, our FCVG provides an explicit condition for each frame, making it much easier to identify the interpolation path between two input frames and thus ensuring temporally stable production of visually plausible video frames. To achieve this, we suggest extracting matched lines from two input frames that can then be easily interpolated frame by frame, serving as frame-wise conditions seamlessly integrated into existing video generation models. In extensive evaluations covering diverse scenarios such as natural landscapes, complex human poses, camera movements and animations, existing methods often exhibit incoherent transitions across frames. In contrast, our FCVG demonstrates the capability to generate temporally stable videos using both linear and non-linear interpolation curves. Our project page and code are available at https://fcvg-inbetween.github.io/.

The undergoing energy transition is causing behavioral changes in electricity use, e.g. with self-consumption of local generation, or flexibility services for demand control. To better understand these changes and the challenges they induce, accessing individual smart meter data is crucial. Yet this is personal data under the European GDPR. A widespread use of such data requires thus to create synthetic realistic and privacy-preserving samples. This paper introduces a new synthetic load curve dataset generated by conditional latent diffusion. We also provide the contracted power, time-of-use plan and local temperature used for generation. Fidelity, utility and privacy of the dataset are thoroughly evaluated, demonstrating its good quality and thereby supporting its interest for energy modeling applications.

Under the conditional framework breaking the longstanding O(n log n) integer multiplication barrier (originating from OpenAI Preprint #109), the asymptotic time complexity exponent T(n) = O(n (log n)^{1-κ}) is governed by bounding the second moment E[X^2] < 1 of recursive branching processes over trilinear tensor carrier graphs. In this work, we present a constructive combinatorial optimization over the alternating carrier bipartite matching graphs of the Schönhage trilinear tensor decomposition at dimensions h=23 and h=25. Through an alternating augmenting path search, we uncover a non-trivial cluster-unlocking cascade that eliminates 185 carrier roles (95 roles in h=23 and 90 roles in h=25), reducing the global physical wire width by 377,890 wires from the reviewed baseline W = 177,284,805 down to W = 176,906,915. Evaluated over the exact 10^{-14} rational grid, this wire reduction certifies an improved second-moment coefficient AB = 5,164,059 / 125,000,000,000 and establishes the sharpened conditional exponent κ= 826,215,307 / 20,000,000,000,000 \approx 4.131076535 \times 10^{-5}, strictly surpassing the preceding record on this architecture (κ\approx 4.123864 \times 10^{-5}). All 47 polynomial constraints and 7 rational security margins are audited in exact Q-arithmetic with zero floating-point error, and the fundamental wire reduction identity is formally verified in the Lean 4 interactive theorem prover without unproven axioms.

Graph generation has been dominated by autoregressive models due to their simplicity and effectiveness, despite their sensitivity to ordering. Yet diffusion models have garnered increasing attention, as they offer comparable performance while being permutation-invariant. Current graph diffusion models generate graphs in a one-shot fashion, but they require extra features and thousands of denoising steps to achieve optimal performance. We introduce PARD, a Permutation-invariant Auto Regressive Diffusion model that integrates diffusion models with autoregressive methods. PARD harnesses the effectiveness and efficiency of the autoregressive model while maintaining permutation invariance without ordering sensitivity. Specifically, we show that contrary to sets, elements in a graph are not entirely unordered and there is a unique partial order for nodes and edges. With this partial order, PARD generates a graph in a block-by-block, autoregressive fashion, where each block's probability is conditionally modeled by a shared diffusion model with an equivariant network. To ensure efficiency while being expressive, we further propose a higher-order graph transformer, which integrates transformer with PPGN. Like GPT, we extend the higher-order graph transformer to support parallel training of all blocks. Without any extra features, PARD achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecular and non-molecular datasets, and scales to large datasets like MOSES containing 1.9M molecules.

Match-cuts are powerful cinematic tools that create seamless transitions between scenes, delivering strong visual and metaphorical connections. However, crafting match-cuts is a challenging, resource-intensive process requiring deliberate artistic planning. In MatchDiffusion, we present the first training-free method for match-cut generation using text-to-video diffusion models. MatchDiffusion leverages a key property of diffusion models: early denoising steps define the scene's broad structure, while later steps add details. Guided by this insight, MatchDiffusion employs "Joint Diffusion" to initialize generation for two prompts from shared noise, aligning structure and motion. It then applies "Disjoint Diffusion", allowing the videos to diverge and introduce unique details. This approach produces visually coherent videos suited for match-cuts. User studies and metrics demonstrate MatchDiffusion's effectiveness and potential to democratize match-cut creation.

We propose a unified, few-step generative modeling framework based on cumulative flow maps for long-range transport in probability space, inspired by flow-map techniques for physical transport and dynamics. At its core is a cumulative-flow abstraction that connects local, instantaneous updates with finite-time transport, enabling generative models to reason about global state transitions. This perspective yields a unified few-step framework built on cumulative transport and cumulative parameterization that applies broadly to existing diffusion- and flow-based models without being tied to a specific prediction instantiation. Our formulation supports few-step and even one-step generation while preserving synthesis quality, requiring only minimal changes to time embeddings and training objectives, and no increase in model capacity. We demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse tasks, including image generation, geometric distribution modeling, joint prediction, and SDF generation, with reduced inference cost.

Generating high-dimensional visual modalities is a computationally intensive task. A common solution is progressive generation, where the outputs are synthesized in a coarse-to-fine spectral autoregressive manner. While diffusion models benefit from the coarse-to-fine nature of denoising, explicit multi-stage architectures are rarely adopted. These architectures have increased the complexity of the overall approach, introducing the need for a custom diffusion formulation, decomposition-dependent stage transitions, add-hoc samplers, or a model cascade. Our contribution, Decomposable Flow Matching (DFM), is a simple and effective framework for the progressive generation of visual media. DFM applies Flow Matching independently at each level of a user-defined multi-scale representation (such as Laplacian pyramid). As shown by our experiments, our approach improves visual quality for both images and videos, featuring superior results compared to prior multistage frameworks. On Imagenet-1k 512px, DFM achieves 35.2% improvements in FDD scores over the base architecture and 26.4% over the best-performing baseline, under the same training compute. When applied to finetuning of large models, such as FLUX, DFM shows faster convergence speed to the training distribution. Crucially, all these advantages are achieved with a single model, architectural simplicity, and minimal modifications to existing training pipelines.

A dense, pretrained language model can be retrofitted with recurrent depth and learn an iterative latent transition that persists after outcome-only annealing. Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct is split into a Prelude, a weight-tied Recurrent Block, and a Coda, with an identity-preserving one-loop path and a re-entry bridge on later loops. At loop 1 the retrofit remains non-inferior to its base on a preregistered ARC battery. Three findings. First, the mechanism is a reusable procedure rather than terminal-answer lookup, and installs at two budgets: 6M trained parameters over frozen base weights and 180M full-block. With intermediate-step supervision, the model computes one task step per loop and persists when only final answers are graded. The adapter matched the full block overall (83.8% versus 84.0%), led through depth 11, and trailed beyond. Verbal fine-tuning reached 79-86% on controlled verbal renderings (zero-shot transfer was minimal), and adapter verbal training begun from the installed mechanism outpaced matched fresh training by 18.6 points, including on a held-out test set. Second, the operation extrapolates to roughly 1.5 times its supervised depth, holding 70% accuracy through depth 18. Third, a same-size scratchpad-trained model matched the recurrent model within its learned horizon but collapsed beyond it. The recurrent model won overall, 84% versus 72%, retained 53% versus 2.5% beyond depth 10, and answered 7.6 times faster. An iterative transformer can therefore perform deeper reasoning in latent space faster than comparable or larger models fine-tuned on the same task, in a system-level comparison. A second task, running the rule in reverse, exposed the limits: the inverse was learnable in isolation, but no continuation acquired it while preserving the installed mechanism and general capability, a catastrophic-interference boundary. Learned depth selection remains open.

The Schr\"odinger Bridge (SB) problem offers a powerful framework for combining optimal transport and diffusion models. A promising recent approach to solve the SB problem is the Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF) procedure, which alternates between Markovian and reciprocal projections of continuous-time stochastic processes. However, the model built by the IMF procedure has a long inference time due to using many steps of numerical solvers for stochastic differential equations. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Discrete-time IMF (D-IMF) procedure in which learning of stochastic processes is replaced by learning just a few transition probabilities in discrete time. Its great advantage is that in practice it can be naturally implemented using the Denoising Diffusion GAN (DD-GAN), an already well-established adversarial generative modeling technique. We show that our D-IMF procedure can provide the same quality of unpaired domain translation as the IMF, using only several generation steps instead of hundreds. We provide the code at https://github.com/Daniil-Selikhanovych/ASBM.

Previously, methods for learning marginally stable linear dynamical systems either required the transition matrix to be symmetric or incurred regret bounds that scale polynomially with the system's hidden dimension. In this work, we introduce a novel method that overcomes this trade-off, achieving dimension-free regret despite the presence of asymmetric matrices and marginal stability. Our method combines spectral filtering with linear predictors and employs Chebyshev polynomials in the complex plane to construct a novel spectral filtering basis. This construction guarantees sublinear regret in an online learning framework, without relying on any statistical or generative assumptions. Specifically, we prove that as long as the transition matrix has eigenvalues with complex component bounded by 1/poly log T, then our method achieves regret O(T^{9/10}) when compared to the best linear dynamical predictor in hindsight.

We give explicit low-rank bilinear non-commutative schemes for multiplying structured n times n matrices with 2 leq n leq 5, which serve as building blocks for recursive algorithms with improved multiplicative factors in asymptotic complexity. Our schemes are discovered over F_2 or F_3 and lifted to Z or Q. Using a flip graph search over tensor decompositions, we derive schemes for general, upper-triangular, lower-triangular, symmetric, and skew-symmetric inputs, as well as products of a structured matrix with its transpose. In particular, we obtain 4 times 4 rank-34 schemes: (i) multiplying a general matrix by its transpose using 10 recursive calls, improving the factor from 26/41 (0.634) to 8/13 (0.615); and (ii) multiplying an upper-triangular matrix by a general matrix using 12 recursive calls, improving the factor from 8/13 (0.615) to 22/37 (0.595). Additionally, using F_3 flip graphs, we discover schemes over Q that fundamentally require the inverse of 2, including a 2 times 2 symmetric-symmetric multiplication of rank 5 and a 3 times 3 skew-symmetric-general multiplication of rank 14 (improving upon AlphaTensor's 15).

Hyper-Connections (HC) replace the single residual stream of a Transformer with n parallel ones, mixing them at every layer with a learned n times n residual matrix. Leaving that matrix unconstrained places no limit on the factor by which the mixing step rescales the residual streams, and that factor compounds across layers, which destabilizes training. Manifold-constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) address this by restricting the matrix to the doubly stochastic matrices. That caps the factor at one, so the mixing can no longer amplify any direction, but nothing bounds it from below. We prove that inside this set the mixing step can reduce the norm of the residual streams only by shrinking the differences between the streams, while their mean is left unchanged; and since the reduction accumulates over layers, the streams grow more alike and their diversity is spent with depth. We therefore propose Orthogonal Hyper-Connections (oHC), restricting the residual matrix to the rotation group SO(n), so that the mixing step can neither amplify nor attenuate the residual streams in any direction, which keeps training stable and no longer forces the differences between the streams to contract. Specifically, at the four streams used by recent HC models we parameterize the group in closed form by a pair of unit quaternions, which adds no parameters, replaces the iterative projection with a fixed pattern of signed additions, and can be constructed faster than mHC. We evaluate oHC across a comprehensive set of downstream tasks, where it outperforms the single-stream residual baseline, mHC and iHC, which fixes the residual matrix to the identity.

Recent work on the sequence universality of State Space Models (SSMs) has introduced efficient, maximally expressive continuous-time approaches for time-series modelling. While these works focus on discriminative settings, we extend this perspective to generative time-series modelling by proving that maximally expressive Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs) are universal time-series generators, in the sense that they can approximate the induced path laws of continuous causal pushforwards on compact latent sets in W_infty. Building on these theoretical results, we propose Generative SLiCEs (G-SLiCEs), a maximally expressive continuous-time model for flow matching on path-space. Empirically, we show that expressivity improves performance in probabilistic forecasting and downstream tasks, while retaining the advantages of continuous-time models such as generalising to arbitrary observation grids. This is particularly beneficial for irregular grids, where fixed-grid models often struggle.

We revisit Tirole's classic paper "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations" (1985, Econometrica) in the case of a dividend-paying asset. Recently, Pham and Toda (2026) constructed a counterexample to Proposition 1(c), showing that Tirole's equilibrium classification is incorrect as stated and that long-run outcomes can depend on initial capital. This paper characterizes the entire set of equilibrium initial asset prices under capital over-accumulation. Exactly one of three regimes occurs: (i) a unique bubbleless equilibrium with capital converging to zero (capital collapse), (ii) a unique asymptotically bubbly equilibrium converging to a positive steady state (bubble necessity), or (iii) a continuum of equilibria with different long-run bubble behavior (indeterminacy). We further derive a threshold for initial capital under the bubble necessity condition, establish preference-free sufficient conditions for capital collapse, and show that the continuum in the pure bubble model survives sufficiently small dividend perturbations. Closed-form examples illustrate the possible long-run outcomes.

We study the autonomous exploration (AX) problem proposed by Lim & Auer (2012). In this setting, the objective is to discover a set of epsilon-optimal policies reaching a set S_L^{rightarrow} of incrementally L-controllable states. We introduce a novel layered decomposition of the set of incrementally L-controllable states that is based on the iterative application of a state-expansion operator. We leverage these results to design Layered Autonomous Exploration (LAE), a novel algorithm for AX that attains a sample complexity of mathcal{O}(LS^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)}Gamma_{L(1+epsilon)} A ln^{12}(S^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)})/epsilon^2), where S^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)} is the number of states that are incrementally L(1+epsilon)-controllable, A is the number of actions, and Gamma_{L(1+epsilon)} is the branching factor of the transitions over such states. LAE improves over the algorithm of Tarbouriech et al. (2020a) by a factor of L^2 and it is the first algorithm for AX that works in a countably-infinite state space. Moreover, we show that, under a certain identifiability assumption, LAE achieves minimax-optimal sample complexity of mathcal{O}(LS^{rightarrow}_{L}Aln^{12}(S^{rightarrow}_{L})/epsilon^2), outperforming existing algorithms and matching for the first time the lower bound proved by Cai et al. (2022) up to logarithmic factors.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting enables complex reasoning in large language models (LLMs), including applications in information retrieval (IR). However, it often leads to overthinking, where models produce excessively long and semantically redundant traces with little or no benefit. We identify two key challenges in IR: redundant trajectories that revisit similar states and misguided reasoning that diverges from user intent. To address these, we propose State Machine Reasoning (SMR), a transition-based reasoning framework composed of discrete actions (Refine, Rerank, Stop) that support early stopping and fine-grained control. Experiments on the BEIR and BRIGHT benchmarks show that SMR improves retrieval performance (nDCG@10) by 3.4% while reducing token usage by 74.4%. It generalizes across LLMs and retrievers without requiring task-specific tuning, offering a practical alternative to conventional CoT reasoning. The code and details are available at https://github.com/ldilab/SMR.

Real-time interactive video generation requires low-latency, streaming, and controllable rollout. Existing autoregressive (AR) diffusion distillation methods have achieved strong results in the chunk-wise 4-step regime by distilling bidirectional base models into few-step AR students, but they remain limited by coarse response granularity and non-negligible sampling latency. In this paper, we study a more aggressive setting: frame-wise autoregression with only 1--2 sampling steps. In this regime, we identify the initialization of a few-step AR student as the key bottleneck: existing strategies are either target-misaligned, incapable of few-step generation, or too costly to scale. We propose Causal Forcing++, a principled and scalable pipeline that uses causal consistency distillation (causal CD) for few-step AR initialization. The core idea is that causal CD learns the same AR-conditional flow map as causal ODE distillation, but obtains supervision from a single online teacher ODE step between adjacent timesteps, avoiding the need to precompute and store full PF-ODE trajectories. This makes the initialization both more efficient and easier to optimize. The resulting pipeline, \ours, surpasses the SOTA 4-step chunk-wise Causal Forcing under the \textbf{frame-wise 2-step setting} by 0.1 in VBench Total, 0.3 in VBench Quality, and 0.335 in VisionReward, while reducing first-frame latency by 50\% and Stage 2 training cost by sim4times. We further extend the pipeline to action-conditioned world model generation in the spirit of Genie3. Project Page: https://github.com/thu-ml/Causal-Forcing and https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM .

Understanding cell cycle dynamics is crucial for studying biological processes such as growth, development and disease progression. While fluorescent protein reporters like the Fucci system allow live monitoring of cell cycle phases, they require genetic engineering and occupy additional fluorescence channels, limiting broader applicability in complex experiments. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of deep learning methods for predicting continuous Fucci signals using non-fluorescence brightfield imaging, a widely available label-free modality. To that end, we generated a large dataset of 1.3 M images of dividing RPE1 cells with full cell cycle trajectories to quantitatively compare the predictive performance of distinct model categories including single time-frame models, causal state space models and bidirectional transformer models. We show that both causal and transformer-based models significantly outperform single- and fixed frame approaches, enabling the prediction of visually imperceptible transitions like G1/S within 1h resolution. Our findings underscore the importance of sequence models for accurate predictions of cell cycle dynamics and highlight their potential for label-free imaging.