Daily Papers

In this paper, we introduce a novel language identification system based on conformer layers. We propose an attentive temporal pooling mechanism to allow the model to carry information in long-form audio via a recurrent form, such that the inference can be performed in a streaming fashion. Additionally, we investigate two domain adaptation approaches to allow adapting an existing language identification model without retraining the model parameters for a new domain. We perform a comparative study of different model topologies under different constraints of model size, and find that conformer-based models significantly outperform LSTM and transformer based models. Our experiments also show that attentive temporal pooling and domain adaptation improve model accuracy.

Conformer-based models have become the dominant end-to-end architecture for speech processing tasks. With the objective of enhancing the conformer architecture for efficient training and inference, we carefully redesigned Conformer with a novel downsampling schema. The proposed model, named Fast Conformer(FC), is 2.8x faster than the original Conformer, supports scaling to Billion parameters without any changes to the core architecture and also achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on Automatic Speech Recognition benchmarks. To enable transcription of long-form speech up to 11 hours, we replaced global attention with limited context attention post-training, while also improving accuracy through fine-tuning with the addition of a global token. Fast Conformer, when combined with a Transformer decoder also outperforms the original Conformer in accuracy and in speed for Speech Translation and Spoken Language Understanding.

In the English speech-to-text (STT) machine learning task, acoustic models are conventionally trained on uncased Latin characters, and any necessary orthography (such as capitalization, punctuation, and denormalization of non-standard words) is imputed by separate post-processing models. This adds complexity and limits performance, as many formatting tasks benefit from semantic information present in the acoustic signal but absent in transcription. Here we propose a new STT task: end-to-end neural transcription with fully formatted text for target labels. We present baseline Conformer-based models trained on a corpus of 5,000 hours of professionally transcribed earnings calls, achieving a CER of 1.7. As a contribution to the STT research community, we release the corpus free for non-commercial use at https://datasets.kensho.com/datasets/scribe.

We introduce fairseq S2T, a fairseq extension for speech-to-text (S2T) modeling tasks such as end-to-end speech recognition and speech-to-text translation. It follows fairseq's careful design for scalability and extensibility. We provide end-to-end workflows from data pre-processing, model training to offline (online) inference. We implement state-of-the-art RNN-based, Transformer-based as well as Conformer-based models and open-source detailed training recipes. Fairseq's machine translation models and language models can be seamlessly integrated into S2T workflows for multi-task learning or transfer learning. Fairseq S2T documentation and examples are available at https://github.com/pytorch/fairseq/tree/master/examples/speech_to_text.

Reducing the latency and model size has always been a significant research problem for live Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) application scenarios. Along this direction, model quantization has become an increasingly popular approach to compress neural networks and reduce computation cost. Most of the existing practical ASR systems apply post-training 8-bit quantization. To achieve a higher compression rate without introducing additional performance regression, in this study, we propose to develop 4-bit ASR models with native quantization aware training, which leverages native integer operations to effectively optimize both training and inference. We conducted two experiments on state-of-the-art Conformer-based ASR models to evaluate our proposed quantization technique. First, we explored the impact of different precisions for both weight and activation quantization on the LibriSpeech dataset, and obtained a lossless 4-bit Conformer model with 5.8x size reduction compared to the float32 model. Following this, we for the first time investigated and revealed the viability of 4-bit quantization on a practical ASR system that is trained with large-scale datasets, and produced a lossless Conformer ASR model with mixed 4-bit and 8-bit weights that has 5x size reduction compared to the float32 model.

We present Ara-BEST-RQ, a family of self-supervised learning (SSL) models specifically designed for multi-dialectal Arabic speech processing. Leveraging 5,640 hours of crawled Creative Commons speech and combining it with publicly available datasets, we pre-train conformer-based BEST-RQ models up to 600M parameters. Our models are evaluated on dialect identification (DID) and automatic speech recognition (ASR) tasks, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the former while using fewer parameters than competing models. We demonstrate that family-targeted pre-training on Arabic dialects significantly improves downstream performance compared to multilingual or monolingual models trained on non-Arabic data. All models, code, and pre-processed datasets will be publicly released to support reproducibility and further research in Arabic speech technologies.

Chord recognition serves as a critical task in music information retrieval due to the abstract and descriptive nature of chords in music analysis. While audio chord recognition systems have achieved significant accuracy for small vocabularies (e.g., major/minor chords), large-vocabulary chord recognition remains a challenging problem. This complexity also arises from the inherent long-tail distribution of chords, where rare chord types are underrepresented in most datasets, leading to insufficient training samples. Effective chord recognition requires leveraging contextual information from audio sequences, yet existing models, such as combinations of convolutional neural networks, bidirectional long short-term memory networks, and bidirectional transformers, face limitations in capturing long-term dependencies and exhibit suboptimal performance on large-vocabulary chord recognition tasks. This work proposes ChordFormer, a novel conformer-based architecture designed to tackle structural chord recognition (e.g., triads, bass, sevenths) for large vocabularies. ChordFormer leverages conformer blocks that integrate convolutional neural networks with transformers, thus enabling the model to capture both local patterns and global dependencies effectively. By addressing challenges such as class imbalance through a reweighted loss function and structured chord representations, ChordFormer outperforms state-of-the-art models, achieving a 2% improvement in frame-wise accuracy and a 6% increase in class-wise accuracy on large-vocabulary chord datasets. Furthermore, ChordFormer excels in handling class imbalance, providing robust and balanced recognition across chord types. This approach bridges the gap between theoretical music knowledge and practical applications, advancing the field of large-vocabulary chord recognition.

Recently Transformer and Convolution neural network (CNN) based models have shown promising results in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), outperforming Recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Transformer models are good at capturing content-based global interactions, while CNNs exploit local features effectively. In this work, we achieve the best of both worlds by studying how to combine convolution neural networks and transformers to model both local and global dependencies of an audio sequence in a parameter-efficient way. To this regard, we propose the convolution-augmented transformer for speech recognition, named Conformer. Conformer significantly outperforms the previous Transformer and CNN based models achieving state-of-the-art accuracies. On the widely used LibriSpeech benchmark, our model achieves WER of 2.1%/4.3% without using a language model and 1.9%/3.9% with an external language model on test/testother. We also observe competitive performance of 2.7%/6.3% with a small model of only 10M parameters.

Conformers have recently been proposed as a promising modelling approach for automatic speech recognition (ASR), outperforming recurrent neural network-based approaches and transformers. Nevertheless, in general, the performance of these end-to-end models, especially attention-based models, is particularly degraded in the case of long utterances. To address this limitation, we propose adding a fully-differentiable memory-augmented neural network between the encoder and decoder of a conformer. This external memory can enrich the generalization for longer utterances since it allows the system to store and retrieve more information recurrently. Notably, we explore the neural Turing machine (NTM) that results in our proposed Conformer-NTM model architecture for ASR. Experimental results using Librispeech train-clean-100 and train-960 sets show that the proposed system outperforms the baseline conformer without memory for long utterances.

Motivated by the success of masked language modeling~(MLM) in pre-training natural language processing models, we propose w2v-BERT that explores MLM for self-supervised speech representation learning. w2v-BERT is a framework that combines contrastive learning and MLM, where the former trains the model to discretize input continuous speech signals into a finite set of discriminative speech tokens, and the latter trains the model to learn contextualized speech representations via solving a masked prediction task consuming the discretized tokens. In contrast to existing MLM-based speech pre-training frameworks such as HuBERT, which relies on an iterative re-clustering and re-training process, or vq-wav2vec, which concatenates two separately trained modules, w2v-BERT can be optimized in an end-to-end fashion by solving the two self-supervised tasks~(the contrastive task and MLM) simultaneously. Our experiments show that w2v-BERT achieves competitive results compared to current state-of-the-art pre-trained models on the LibriSpeech benchmarks when using the Libri-Light~60k corpus as the unsupervised data. In particular, when compared to published models such as conformer-based wav2vec~2.0 and HuBERT, our model shows~5\% to~10\% relative WER reduction on the test-clean and test-other subsets. When applied to the Google's Voice Search traffic dataset, w2v-BERT outperforms our internal conformer-based wav2vec~2.0 by more than~30\% relatively.

Neural audio codecs (NACs) provide compact latent speech representations in the form of sequences of continuous vectors or discrete tokens. In this work, we investigate how these two types of speech representations compare when used as training targets for supervised speech enhancement. We consider both autoregressive and non-autoregressive speech enhancement models based on the Conformer architecture, as well as a simple baseline where the NAC encoder is simply fine-tuned for speech enhancement. Our experiments reveal three key findings: predicting continuous latent representations consistently outperforms discrete token prediction; autoregressive models achieve higher quality but at the expense of intelligibility and efficiency, making non-autoregressive models more attractive in practice; and adding encoder fine-tuning yields the strongest enhancement metrics overall, though at the cost of degraded codec reconstruction. The code and audio samples are available online.

We introduce Adjoint Sampling, a highly scalable and efficient algorithm for learning diffusion processes that sample from unnormalized densities, or energy functions. It is the first on-policy approach that allows significantly more gradient updates than the number of energy evaluations and model samples, allowing us to scale to much larger problem settings than previously explored by similar methods. Our framework is theoretically grounded in stochastic optimal control and shares the same theoretical guarantees as Adjoint Matching, being able to train without the need for corrective measures that push samples towards the target distribution. We show how to incorporate key symmetries, as well as periodic boundary conditions, for modeling molecules in both cartesian and torsional coordinates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on classical energy functions, and further scale up to neural network-based energy models where we perform amortized conformer generation across many molecular systems. To encourage further research in developing highly scalable sampling methods, we plan to open source these challenging benchmarks, where successful methods can directly impact progress in computational chemistry.

In this paper, we propose an efficient and accurate streaming speech recognition model based on the FastConformer architecture. We adapted the FastConformer architecture for streaming applications through: (1) constraining both the look-ahead and past contexts in the encoder, and (2) introducing an activation caching mechanism to enable the non-autoregressive encoder to operate autoregressively during inference. The proposed model is thoughtfully designed in a way to eliminate the accuracy disparity between the train and inference time which is common for many streaming models. Furthermore, our proposed encoder works with various decoder configurations including Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) and RNN-Transducer (RNNT) decoders. Additionally, we introduced a hybrid CTC/RNNT architecture which utilizes a shared encoder with both a CTC and RNNT decoder to boost the accuracy and save computation. We evaluate the proposed model on LibriSpeech dataset and a multi-domain large scale dataset and demonstrate that it can achieve better accuracy with lower latency and inference time compared to a conventional buffered streaming model baseline. We also showed that training a model with multiple latencies can achieve better accuracy than single latency models while it enables us to support multiple latencies with a single model. Our experiments also showed the hybrid architecture would not only speedup the convergence of the CTC decoder but also improves the accuracy of streaming models compared to single decoder models.

End-to-end (E2E) automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems have revolutionized the field by integrating all components into a single neural network, with attention-based encoder-decoder models achieving state-of-the-art performance. However, their autoregressive decoding process limits inference speed, making them unsuitable for real-time applications. In contrast, CTC-based models offer faster, non-autoregressive decoding but struggle to model linguistic dependencies effectively. Addressing this challenge, we propose a novel auxiliary loss framework called Language-Aware Intermediate Loss (LAIL) to enhance CTC-based ASR using the linguistic knowledge of large language models (LLMs). By attaching connector layers to intermediate encoder layers, LAIL maps outputs to the embedding space of an LLM and computes a causal language modeling loss during training. This approach enhances linguistic modeling while preserving the computational efficiency of CTC decoding. Using the Conformer architecture and various LLaMA models, we demonstrate significant improvements in Word Error Rate (WER) on the LibriSpeech, TEDLIUM2, and WSJ corpora, achieving state-of-the-art performance for CTC-based ASR with minimal computational overhead.

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in unifying streaming and non-streaming speech recognition models to reduce development, training and deployment cost. The best-known approaches rely on either window-based or dynamic chunk-based attention strategy and causal convolutions to minimize the degradation due to streaming. However, the performance gap still remains relatively large between non-streaming and a full-contextual model trained independently. To address this, we propose a dynamic chunk-based convolution replacing the causal convolution in a hybrid Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC)-Attention Conformer architecture. Additionally, we demonstrate further improvements through initialization of weights from a full-contextual model and parallelization of the convolution and self-attention modules. We evaluate our models on the open-source Voxpopuli, LibriSpeech and in-house conversational datasets. Overall, our proposed model reduces the degradation of the streaming mode over the non-streaming full-contextual model from 41.7% and 45.7% to 16.7% and 26.2% on the LibriSpeech test-clean and test-other datasets respectively, while improving by a relative 15.5% WER over the previous state-of-the-art unified model.

Data-efficient neural decoding is a central challenge for speech brain-computer interfaces. We present the first demonstration of transfer learning and cross-task decoding for MEG-based speech models spanning perception and production. We pre-train a Conformer-based model on 50 hours of single-subject listening data and fine-tune on just 5 minutes per subject across 18 participants. Transfer learning yields consistent improvements, with in-task accuracy gains of 1-4% and larger cross-task gains of up to 5-6%. Not only does pre-training improve performance within each task, but it also enables reliable cross-task decoding between perception and production. Critically, models trained on speech production decode passive listening above chance, confirming that learned representations reflect shared neural processes rather than task-specific motor activity.

While attention-based architectures, such as Conformers, excel in speech enhancement, they face challenges such as scalability with respect to input sequence length. In contrast, the recently proposed Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) architecture offers linear scalability. However, xLSTM-based models remain unexplored for speech enhancement. This paper introduces xLSTM-SENet, the first xLSTM-based single-channel speech enhancement system. A comparative analysis reveals that xLSTM-and notably, even LSTM-can match or outperform state-of-the-art Mamba- and Conformer-based systems across various model sizes in speech enhancement on the VoiceBank+Demand dataset. Through ablation studies, we identify key architectural design choices such as exponential gating and bidirectionality contributing to its effectiveness. Our best xLSTM-based model, xLSTM-SENet2, outperforms state-of-the-art Mamba- and Conformer-based systems of similar complexity on the Voicebank+DEMAND dataset.

While recent research has made significant progress in speech-driven talking face generation, the quality of the generated video still lags behind that of real recordings. One reason for this is the use of handcrafted intermediate representations like facial landmarks and 3DMM coefficients, which are designed based on human knowledge and are insufficient to precisely describe facial movements. Additionally, these methods require an external pretrained model for extracting these representations, whose performance sets an upper bound on talking face generation. To address these limitations, we propose a novel method called DAE-Talker that leverages data-driven latent representations obtained from a diffusion autoencoder (DAE). DAE contains an image encoder that encodes an image into a latent vector and a DDIM image decoder that reconstructs the image from it. We train our DAE on talking face video frames and then extract their latent representations as the training target for a Conformer-based speech2latent model. This allows DAE-Talker to synthesize full video frames and produce natural head movements that align with the content of speech, rather than relying on a predetermined head pose from a template video. We also introduce pose modelling in speech2latent for pose controllability. Additionally, we propose a novel method for generating continuous video frames with the DDIM image decoder trained on individual frames, eliminating the need for modelling the joint distribution of consecutive frames directly. Our experiments show that DAE-Talker outperforms existing popular methods in lip-sync, video fidelity, and pose naturalness. We also conduct ablation studies to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed techniques and demonstrate the pose controllability of DAE-Talker.

This paper proposes a novel, resource-efficient approach to Visual Speech Recognition (VSR) leveraging speech representations produced by any trained Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) model. Moving away from the resource-intensive trends prevalent in recent literature, our method distills knowledge from a trained Conformer-based ASR model, achieving competitive performance on standard VSR benchmarks with significantly less resource utilization. Using unlabeled audio-visual data only, our baseline model achieves a word error rate (WER) of 47.4% and 54.7% on the LRS2 and LRS3 test benchmarks, respectively. After fine-tuning the model with limited labeled data, the word error rate reduces to 35% (LRS2) and 45.7% (LRS3). Our model can be trained on a single consumer-grade GPU within a few days and is capable of performing real-time end-to-end VSR on dated hardware, suggesting a path towards more accessible and resource-efficient VSR methodologies.

We propose CONF-TSASR, a non-autoregressive end-to-end time-frequency domain architecture for single-channel target-speaker automatic speech recognition (TS-ASR). The model consists of a TitaNet based speaker embedding module, a Conformer based masking as well as ASR modules. These modules are jointly optimized to transcribe a target-speaker, while ignoring speech from other speakers. For training we use Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) loss and introduce a scale-invariant spectrogram reconstruction loss to encourage the model better separate the target-speaker's spectrogram from mixture. We obtain state-of-the-art target-speaker word error rate (TS-WER) on WSJ0-2mix-extr (4.2%). Further, we report for the first time TS-WER on WSJ0-3mix-extr (12.4%), LibriSpeech2Mix (4.2%) and LibriSpeech3Mix (7.6%) datasets, establishing new benchmarks for TS-ASR. The proposed model will be open-sourced through NVIDIA NeMo toolkit.

With increasingly more powerful compute capabilities and resources in today's devices, traditionally compute-intensive automatic speech recognition (ASR) has been moving from the cloud to devices to better protect user privacy. However, it is still challenging to implement on-device ASR on resource-constrained devices, such as smartphones, smart wearables, and other smart home automation devices. In this paper, we propose a series of model architecture adaptions, neural network graph transformations, and numerical optimizations to fit an advanced Conformer based end-to-end streaming ASR system on resource-constrained devices without accuracy degradation. We achieve over 5.26 times faster than realtime (0.19 RTF) speech recognition on smart wearables while minimizing energy consumption and achieving state-of-the-art accuracy. The proposed methods are widely applicable to other transformer-based server-free AI applications. In addition, we provide a complete theory on optimal pre-normalizers that numerically stabilize layer normalization in any Lp-norm using any floating point precision.

We present Conformer-based decoders for the LibriBrain 2025 PNPL competition, targeting two foundational MEG tasks: Speech Detection and Phoneme Classification. Our approach adapts a compact Conformer to raw 306-channel MEG signals, with a lightweight convolutional projection layer and task-specific heads. For Speech Detection, a MEG-oriented SpecAugment provided a first exploration of MEG-specific augmentation. For Phoneme Classification, we used inverse-square-root class weighting and a dynamic grouping loader to handle 100-sample averaged examples. In addition, a simple instance-level normalization proved critical to mitigate distribution shifts on the holdout split. Using the official Standard track splits and F1-macro for model selection, our best systems achieved 88.9% (Speech) and 65.8% (Phoneme) on the leaderboard, surpassing the competition baselines and ranking within the top-10 in both tasks. For further implementation details, the technical documentation, source code, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/neural2speech/libribrain-experiments.

Recent progress in single-image super-resolution (SISR) has achieved remarkable performance, yet the computational costs of these methods remain a challenge for deployment on resource-constrained devices. Especially for transformer-based methods, the self-attention mechanism in such models brings great breakthroughs while incurring substantial computational costs. To tackle this issue, we introduce the Convolutional Transformer layer (ConvFormer) and the ConvFormer-based Super-Resolution network (CFSR), which offer an effective and efficient solution for lightweight image super-resolution tasks. In detail, CFSR leverages the large kernel convolution as the feature mixer to replace the self-attention module, efficiently modeling long-range dependencies and extensive receptive fields with a slight computational cost. Furthermore, we propose an edge-preserving feed-forward network, simplified as EFN, to obtain local feature aggregation and simultaneously preserve more high-frequency information. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CFSR can achieve an advanced trade-off between computational cost and performance when compared to existing lightweight SR methods. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, e.g. ShuffleMixer, the proposed CFSR achieves 0.39 dB gains on Urban100 dataset for x2 SR task while containing 26% and 31% fewer parameters and FLOPs, respectively. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/Aitical/CFSR.

We present MERaLiON-GR, a speech gender recognition system that performs binary classification (female / male) on English and Southeast Asian (SEA) languages. The model finetunes MERaLiON-SpeechEncoder-2, a large conformer based transformer pre-trained on a broad speech corpus, and applies parameter efficient fine-tuning via Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to adapt the encoder to the gender recognition task, and appends a multi-scale ECAPA-TDNN down stream network with attention pooling and a lightweight linear classifier. Extensive evaluations across multilingual Singaporean and Southeast Asian languages (English, Chinese, Malay, Tamil, Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian, and Khmer) show that MERaLiON-GR consistently surpasses the state-of-the-art gender recognition model Vox-Profile and a large Audio-LLM, in both full-utterance and segment level evaluation modes. The results underscore the value of dedicated speech models in achieving accurate paralinguistic understanding and strong cross-lingual generalization.

Whispered speech lacks vocal-fold excitation and exhibits reduced energy and shifted formant frequencies, making natural and intelligible voice reconstruction highly challenging. To address this issue, we propose WhisperVC, a three-stage framework for Mandarin whisper-to-speech (W2S) conversion. Stage~1 employs a fine-tuned Content Encoder based on the OpenAI Whisper-large~V3 model and a Conformer-based variational autoencoder with soft-DTW alignment to learn domain-invariant and temporally consistent representations. Stage~2 introduces a deterministic Length--Channel Aligner and a duration-free FastSpeech~2 model conditioned on speaker embeddings for controllable timbre and stable prosody. Stage~3 fine-tunes a HiFi-GAN vocoder on predicted mel-spectrograms to synthesize high-fidelity waveforms. Experiments on the AISHELL6-Whisper corpus demonstrate that WhisperVC achieves near ground-truth quality (DNSMOS~3.11, UTMOS~2.52, CER~18.67\%), while maintaining speaker similarity (cosine~0.76) and robust performance under whisper-only inference.

With the advent of new sequence models like Mamba and xLSTM, several studies have shown that these models match or outperform state-of-the-art models in single-channel speech enhancement, automatic speech recognition, and self-supervised audio representation learning. However, prior research has demonstrated that sequence models like LSTM and Mamba tend to overfit to the training set. To address this issue, previous works have shown that adding self-attention to LSTMs substantially improves generalization performance for single-channel speech enhancement. Nevertheless, neither the concept of hybrid Mamba and time-frequency attention models nor their generalization performance have been explored for speech enhancement. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid architecture, MambAttention, which combines Mamba and shared time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules for generalizable single-channel speech enhancement. To train our model, we introduce VoiceBank+Demand Extended (VB-DemandEx), a dataset inspired by VoiceBank+Demand but with more challenging noise types and lower signal-to-noise ratios. Trained on VB-DemandEx, our proposed MambAttention model significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art LSTM-, xLSTM-, Mamba-, and Conformer-based systems of similar complexity across all reported metrics on two out-of-domain datasets: DNS 2020 and EARS-WHAM_v2, while matching their performance on the in-domain dataset VB-DemandEx. Ablation studies highlight the role of weight sharing between the time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules for generalization performance. Finally, we explore integrating the shared time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules with LSTM and xLSTM, which yields a notable performance improvement on the out-of-domain datasets. However, our MambAttention model remains superior on both out-of-domain datasets across all reported evaluation metrics.

Humans are adept at leveraging visual cues from lip movements for recognizing speech in adverse listening conditions. Audio-Visual Speech Recognition (AVSR) models follow similar approach to achieve robust speech recognition in noisy conditions. In this work, we present a multilingual AVSR model incorporating several enhancements to improve performance and audio noise robustness. Notably, we adapt the recently proposed Fast Conformer model to process both audio and visual modalities using a novel hybrid CTC/RNN-T architecture. We increase the amount of audio-visual training data for six distinct languages, generating automatic transcriptions of unlabelled multilingual datasets (VoxCeleb2 and AVSpeech). Our proposed model achieves new state-of-the-art performance on the LRS3 dataset, reaching WER of 0.8%. On the recently introduced MuAViC benchmark, our model yields an absolute average-WER reduction of 11.9% in comparison to the original baseline. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of the proposed model to perform audio-only, visual-only, and audio-visual speech recognition at test time.

Existing end-to-end sign-language animation systems suffer from low naturalness, limited facial/body expressivity, and no user control. We propose a human-centered, real-time speech-to-sign animation framework that integrates (1) a streaming Conformer encoder with an autoregressive Transformer-MDN decoder for synchronized upper-body and facial motion generation, (2) a transparent, editable JSON intermediate representation empowering deaf users and experts to inspect and modify each sign segment, and (3) a human-in-the-loop optimization loop that refines the model based on user edits and ratings. Deployed on Unity3D, our system achieves a 13 ms average frame-inference time and a 103 ms end-to-end latency on an RTX 4070. Our key contributions include the design of a JSON-centric editing mechanism for fine-grained sign-level personalization and the first application of an MDN-based feedback loop for continuous model adaptation. This combination establishes a generalizable, explainable AI paradigm for user-adaptive, low-latency multimodal systems. In studies with 20 deaf signers and 5 professional interpreters, we observe a +13 point SUS improvement, 6.7 point reduction in cognitive load, and significant gains in naturalness and trust (p < .001) over baselines. This work establishes a scalable, explainable AI paradigm for accessible sign-language technologies.

3D molecule generation is crucial for drug discovery and material design. While prior efforts focus on 3D diffusion models for their benefits in modeling continuous 3D conformers, they overlook the advantages of 1D SELFIES-based Language Models (LMs), which can generate 100% valid molecules and leverage the billion-scale 1D molecule datasets. To combine these advantages for 3D molecule generation, we propose a foundation model -- NExT-Mol: 3D Diffusion Meets 1D Language Modeling for 3D Molecule Generation. NExT-Mol uses an extensively pretrained molecule LM for 1D molecule generation, and subsequently predicts the generated molecule's 3D conformers with a 3D diffusion model. We enhance NExT-Mol's performance by scaling up the LM's model size, refining the diffusion neural architecture, and applying 1D to 3D transfer learning. Notably, our 1D molecule LM significantly outperforms baselines in distributional similarity while ensuring validity, and our 3D diffusion model achieves leading performances in conformer prediction. Given these improvements in 1D and 3D modeling, NExT-Mol achieves a 26% relative improvement in 3D FCD for de novo 3D generation on GEOM-DRUGS, and a 13% average relative gain for conditional 3D generation on QM9-2014. Our codes and pretrained checkpoints are available at https://github.com/acharkq/NExT-Mol.

In this work, we present a hybrid CTC/Attention model based on a ResNet-18 and Convolution-augmented transformer (Conformer), that can be trained in an end-to-end manner. In particular, the audio and visual encoders learn to extract features directly from raw pixels and audio waveforms, respectively, which are then fed to conformers and then fusion takes place via a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). The model learns to recognise characters using a combination of CTC and an attention mechanism. We show that end-to-end training, instead of using pre-computed visual features which is common in the literature, the use of a conformer, instead of a recurrent network, and the use of a transformer-based language model, significantly improve the performance of our model. We present results on the largest publicly available datasets for sentence-level speech recognition, Lip Reading Sentences 2 (LRS2) and Lip Reading Sentences 3 (LRS3), respectively. The results show that our proposed models raise the state-of-the-art performance by a large margin in audio-only, visual-only, and audio-visual experiments.

Augmenting the training data of automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems with synthetic data generated by text-to-speech (TTS) or voice conversion (VC) has gained popularity in recent years. Several works have demonstrated improvements in ASR performance using this augmentation approach. However, because of the lower diversity of synthetic speech, naively combining synthetic and real data often does not yield the best results. In this work, we leverage recently proposed flow-based TTS/VC models allowing greater speech diversity, and assess the respective impact of augmenting various speech attributes on the word error rate (WER) achieved by several ASR models. Pitch augmentation and VC-based speaker augmentation are found to be ineffective in our setup. Jointly augmenting all other attributes reduces the WER of a Conformer-Transducer model by 11\% relative on Common Voice and by up to 35\% relative on LibriSpeech compared to training on real data only.

The recently proposed Conformer model has become the de facto backbone model for various downstream speech tasks based on its hybrid attention-convolution architecture that captures both local and global features. However, through a series of systematic studies, we find that the Conformer architecture's design choices are not optimal. After re-examining the design choices for both the macro and micro-architecture of Conformer, we propose Squeezeformer which consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art ASR models under the same training schemes. In particular, for the macro-architecture, Squeezeformer incorporates (i) the Temporal U-Net structure which reduces the cost of the multi-head attention modules on long sequences, and (ii) a simpler block structure of multi-head attention or convolution modules followed up by feed-forward module instead of the Macaron structure proposed in Conformer. Furthermore, for the micro-architecture, Squeezeformer (i) simplifies the activations in the convolutional block, (ii) removes redundant Layer Normalization operations, and (iii) incorporates an efficient depthwise down-sampling layer to efficiently sub-sample the input signal. Squeezeformer achieves state-of-the-art results of 7.5%, 6.5%, and 6.0% word-error-rate (WER) on LibriSpeech test-other without external language models, which are 3.1%, 1.4%, and 0.6% better than Conformer-CTC with the same number of FLOPs. Our code is open-sourced and available online.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

Epilepsy is a common disease of the nervous system. Timely prediction of seizures and intervention treatment can significantly reduce the accidental injury of patients and protect the life and health of patients. This paper presents a neuromorphic Spiking Convolutional Transformer, named Spiking Conformer, to detect and predict epileptic seizure segments from scalped long-term electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings. We report evaluation results from the Spiking Conformer model using the Boston Children's Hospital-MIT (CHB-MIT) EEG dataset. By leveraging spike-based addition operations, the Spiking Conformer significantly reduces the classification computational cost compared to the non-spiking model. Additionally, we introduce an approximate spiking neuron layer to further reduce spike-triggered neuron updates by nearly 38% without sacrificing accuracy. Using raw EEG data as input, the proposed Spiking Conformer achieved an average sensitivity rate of 94.9% and a specificity rate of 99.3% for the seizure detection task, and 96.8%, 89.5% for the seizure prediction task, and needs >10x fewer operations compared to the non-spiking equivalent model.

In this paper we tackle the problem of generating conformers of a molecule in 3D space given its molecular graph. We parameterize these conformers as continuous functions that map elements from the molecular graph to points in 3D space. We then formulate the problem of learning to generate conformers as learning a distribution over these functions using a diffusion generative model, called Molecular Conformer Fields (MCF). Our approach is simple and scalable, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging molecular conformer generation benchmarks while making no assumptions about the explicit structure of molecules (e.g. modeling torsional angles). MCF represents an advance in extending diffusion models to handle complex scientific problems in a conceptually simple, scalable and effective manner.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general wrapper that can be combined with any black box method that produces point predictions of the unseen label or estimated quantiles of its distribution. While previous conformal inference methods rely on the assumption that the data points are exchangeable, our adaptive approach provably achieves the desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals irrespective of the true data generating process. We accomplish this by modelling the distribution shift as a learning problem in a single parameter whose optimal value is varying over time and must be continuously re-estimated. We test our method, adaptive conformal inference, on two real world datasets and find that its predictions are robust to visible and significant distribution shifts.

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty quantification guarantees for machine learning systems. Much of the current interest in conformal prediction is due to its ability to integrate into complex machine learning workflows, solving the problem of forming prediction sets without any assumptions on the form of the data generating distribution. Since contemporary machine learning algorithms have generally proven difficult to analyze directly, conformal prediction's main appeal is its ability to provide formal, finite-sample guarantees when paired with such methods. The goal of this book is to teach the reader about the fundamental technical arguments that arise when researching conformal prediction and related questions in distribution-free inference. Many of these proof strategies, especially the more recent ones, are scattered among research papers, making it difficult for researchers to understand where to look, which results are important, and how exactly the proofs work. We hope to bridge this gap by curating what we believe to be some of the most important results in the literature and presenting their proofs in a unified language, with illustrations, and with an eye towards pedagogy.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Molecular Representation Learning (MRL) has proven impactful in numerous biochemical applications such as drug discovery and enzyme design. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are effective at learning molecular representations from a 2D molecular graph or a single 3D structure, existing works often overlook the flexible nature of molecules, which continuously interconvert across conformations via chemical bond rotations and minor vibrational perturbations. To better account for molecular flexibility, some recent works formulate MRL as an ensemble learning problem, focusing on explicitly learning from a set of conformer structures. However, most of these studies have limited datasets, tasks, and models. In this work, we introduce the first MoleculAR Conformer Ensemble Learning (MARCEL) benchmark to thoroughly evaluate the potential of learning on conformer ensembles and suggest promising research directions. MARCEL includes four datasets covering diverse molecule- and reaction-level properties of chemically diverse molecules including organocatalysts and transition-metal catalysts, extending beyond the scope of common GNN benchmarks that are confined to drug-like molecules. In addition, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study, which benchmarks representative 1D, 2D, and 3D molecular representation learning models, along with two strategies that explicitly incorporate conformer ensembles into 3D MRL models. Our findings reveal that direct learning from an accessible conformer space can improve performance on a variety of tasks and models.

Ligand molecule conformation generation is a critical challenge in drug discovery. Deep learning models have been developed to tackle this problem, particularly through the use of generative models in recent years. However, these models often generate conformations that lack meaningful structure and randomness due to the absence of essential side information. Examples of such side information include the chemical and geometric features of the target protein, ligand-target compound interactions, and ligand chemical properties. Without these constraints, the generated conformations may not be suitable for further selection and design of new drugs. To address this limitation, we propose a novel method for generating ligand conformations that leverage side information and incorporate flexible constraints into standard diffusion models. Drawing inspiration from the concept of message passing, we introduce ligand-target massage passing block, a mechanism that facilitates the exchange of information between target nodes and ligand nodes, thereby incorporating target node features. To capture non-covalent interactions, we introduce ligand-target compound inter and intra edges. To further improve the biological relevance of the generated conformations, we train energy models using scalar chemical features. These models guide the progress of the standard Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models, resulting in more biologically meaningful conformations. We evaluate the performance of SIDEGEN using the PDBBind-2020 dataset, comparing it against other methods. The results demonstrate improvements in both Aligned RMSD and Ligand RMSD evaluations. Specifically, our model outperforms GeoDiff (trained on PDBBind-2020) by 20% in terms of the median aligned RMSD metric.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of conformal predictors satisfying the same property of validity. However, inductive conformal predictors have been only known to control unconditional coverage probability. This paper explores various versions of conditional validity and various ways to achieve them using inductive conformal predictors and their modifications.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

We consider the problem of antibody sequence design given 3D structural information. Building on previous work, we propose a fine-tuned inverse folding model that is specifically optimised for antibody structures and outperforms generic protein models on sequence recovery and structure robustness when applied on antibodies, with notable improvement on the hypervariable CDR-H3 loop. We study the canonical conformations of complementarity-determining regions and find improved encoding of these loops into known clusters. Finally, we consider the applications of our model to drug discovery and binder design and evaluate the quality of proposed sequences using physics-based methods.

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

Structural modeling is a fundamental component of computational engineering science, in which even minor physical inconsistencies or specification violations may invalidate downstream simulations. The potential of large language models (LLMs) for automatic generation of modeling code has been demonstrated. However, non-executable or physically inconsistent outputs remain prevalent under stringent engineering constraints. A framework for physics-consistent automatic building modeling is therefore proposed, integrating domain knowledge construction, constraint-oriented model alignment, and verification-driven evaluation. CivilInstruct is introduced as a domain-specific dataset that formalizes structural engineering knowledge and constraint reasoning to enable simulation-ready model generation. A two-stage fine-tuning strategy is further employed to enforce constraint satisfaction and application programming interface compliance, substantially reducing hallucinated and non-conforming outputs. MBEval is presented as a verification-driven benchmark that evaluates executability and structural dynamics consistency through closed-loop validation. Experimental results show consistent improvements over baselines across rigorous verification metrics. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jovanqing/AutoBM.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability guarantee of correctness. These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction. Existing methods in this area suffer from two deficiencies. First, the guarantee stated is not conditionally valid. The trustworthiness of the filtering step may vary based on the topic of the response. Second, because the scoring function is imperfect, the filtering step can remove many valuable and accurate claims. We address both of these challenges via two new conformal methods. First, we generalize the conditional conformal procedure of Gibbs et al. (2023) in order to adaptively issue weaker guarantees when they are required to preserve the utility of the output. Second, we show how to systematically improve the quality of the scoring function via a novel algorithm for differentiating through the conditional conformal procedure. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on biography and medical question-answering datasets.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

One-shot prediction enables rapid adaptation of pretrained foundation models to new tasks using only one labeled example, but lacks principled uncertainty quantification. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, standard split conformal methods are inefficient in the one-shot setting due to data splitting and reliance on a single predictor. We propose Conformal Aggregation of One-Shot Predictors (CAOS), a conformal framework that adaptively aggregates multiple one-shot predictors and uses a leave-one-out calibration scheme to fully exploit scarce labeled data. Despite violating classical exchangeability assumptions, we prove that CAOS achieves valid marginal coverage using a monotonicity-based argument. Experiments on one-shot facial landmarking and RAFT text classification tasks show that CAOS produces substantially smaller prediction sets than split conformal baselines while maintaining reliable coverage.

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification, providing calibrated predictive intervals associated with automatic volume measurements. However, this methodology is based on the hypothesis that calibration and test samples are exchangeable, an assumption that is in practice often violated in medical image applications. A weighted formulation of Conformal Prediction can be framed to mitigate this issue, but its empirical investigation in the medical domain is still lacking. A potential reason is that it relies on the estimation of the density ratio between the calibration and test distributions, which is likely to be intractable in scenarios involving high-dimensional data. To circumvent this, we propose an efficient approach for density ratio estimation relying on the compressed latent representations generated by the segmentation model. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to reduce the coverage error in the presence of covariate shifts, in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/benolmbrt/wcp_miccai

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

The power of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led us to investigate how they might be fine-tuned for learning the "language of molecular geometry". The fine-tuning of the LLMs using Cartesian coordinates or Z-matrices provides an extremely simple method for accurately predicting equilibrium structures and diverse sets of conformers of small organic and drug-like molecules with excellent accuracy and outperforming specialized deep learning models. While the most common representation of molecular geometries are Cartesian coordinates performs adequately, we find that the inherent invariances and relational nature of geometries represented as Z-matrices provides a better grammar for LLM adaptation. Finally, we show that enhancing an LLMs capabilities for robust prediction of small molecule geometries still retains nearly all of its pre-trained language abilities by randomly mixing in small quantities of natural language prompt-response pairs into the fine-tuning.

Polymer conformation generation is a critical task that enables atomic-level studies of diverse polymer materials. While significant advances have been made in designing conformation generation methods for small molecules and proteins, these methods struggle to generate polymer conformations due to their unique structural characteristics. Meanwhile, the scarcity of polymer conformation datasets further limits the progress, making this important area largely unexplored. In this work, we propose PolyConf, a pioneering tailored polymer conformation generation method that leverages hierarchical generative models to unlock new possibilities. Specifically, we decompose the polymer conformation into a series of local conformations (i.e., the conformations of its repeating units), generating these local conformations through an autoregressive model, and then generating their orientation transformations via a diffusion model to assemble them into the complete polymer conformation. Moreover, we develop the first benchmark with a high-quality polymer conformation dataset derived from molecular dynamics simulations to boost related research in this area. The comprehensive evaluation demonstrates that PolyConf consistently outperforms existing conformation generation methods, thus facilitating advancements in polymer modeling and simulation.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We present protein autoregressive modeling (PAR), the first multi-scale autoregressive framework for protein backbone generation via coarse-to-fine next-scale prediction. Using the hierarchical nature of proteins, PAR generates structures that mimic sculpting a statue, forming a coarse topology and refining structural details over scales. To achieve this, PAR consists of three key components: (i) multi-scale downsampling operations that represent protein structures across multiple scales during training; (ii) an autoregressive transformer that encodes multi-scale information and produces conditional embeddings to guide structure generation; (iii) a flow-based backbone decoder that generates backbone atoms conditioned on these embeddings. Moreover, autoregressive models suffer from exposure bias, caused by the training and the generation procedure mismatch, and substantially degrades structure generation quality. We effectively alleviate this issue by adopting noisy context learning and scheduled sampling, enabling robust backbone generation. Notably, PAR exhibits strong zero-shot generalization, supporting flexible human-prompted conditional generation and motif scaffolding without requiring fine-tuning. On the unconditional generation benchmark, PAR effectively learns protein distributions and produces backbones of high design quality, and exhibits favorable scaling behavior. Together, these properties establish PAR as a promising framework for protein structure generation.

Generating novel active molecules for a given protein is an extremely challenging task for generative models that requires an understanding of the complex physical interactions between the molecule and its environment. In this paper, we present a novel generative model, BindGPT which uses a conceptually simple but powerful approach to create 3D molecules within the protein's binding site. Our model produces molecular graphs and conformations jointly, eliminating the need for an extra graph reconstruction step. We pretrain BindGPT on a large-scale dataset and fine-tune it with reinforcement learning using scores from external simulation software. We demonstrate how a single pretrained language model can serve at the same time as a 3D molecular generative model, conformer generator conditioned on the molecular graph, and a pocket-conditioned 3D molecule generator. Notably, the model does not make any representational equivariance assumptions about the domain of generation. We show how such simple conceptual approach combined with pretraining and scaling can perform on par or better than the current best specialized diffusion models, language models, and graph neural networks while being two orders of magnitude cheaper to sample.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

Transformers have become a standard architecture in machine learning, demonstrating strong in-context learning (ICL) abilities that allow them to learn from the prompt at inference time. However, uncertainty quantification for ICL remains an open challenge, particularly in noisy regression tasks. This paper investigates whether ICL can be leveraged for distribution-free uncertainty estimation, proposing a method based on conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. While traditional conformal methods are computationally expensive due to repeated model fitting, we exploit ICL to efficiently generate confidence intervals in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis compares this approach against ridge regression-based conformal methods, showing that conformal prediction with in-context learning (CP with ICL) achieves robust and scalable uncertainty estimates. Additionally, we evaluate its performance under distribution shifts and establish scaling laws to guide model training. These findings bridge ICL and conformal prediction, providing a theoretically grounded and new framework for uncertainty quantification in transformer-based models.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Entity matching identifies records that refer to the same real-world entity. Language models can be adapted to this task through bi-encoder, cross-encoder, and generative matcher architectures. However, prior studies often conflate matcher architecture with differences in model backbone, model variant(reflecting different pretraining objectives), and model size, making it difficult to isolate the sources of performance gains. We address this issue through a controlled factorial study spanning three matcher architectures, three model variants and three model sizes from the Qwen3 family, and nine datasets, totaling 1,215 fine-tuning runs. We also evaluate cross-dataset transferability and computational cost. Our results show that model variant is critical for bi-encoders: embedding-oriented variants provide stronger initialization and more favorable representation geometry predictive of downstream matching performance. Cross-encoders retain a consistent advantage over bi-encoders because they jointly encode record pairs rather than representing each record independently, although larger models partially narrow this gap. Generative matchers do not universally outperform cross-encoders. Instead, their advantages concentrate under distribution shift, including subtle unseen differences in record schemas and cross-dataset transfer. We further find that larger models rely more heavily on shortcut learning and therefore do not necessarily perform better. These findings clarify the factors underlying performance differences across matcher architectures and motivate future research and benchmark designs that better disentangle architectural choices from model-level factors while explicitly evaluating distribution shift and cross-dataset transferability. We release our experimental results, code, training scripts, and evaluation data at https://github.com/Jantory/llm-trained-matcher.

We introduce Suiren-1.0, a family of molecular foundation models for the accurate modeling of diverse organic systems. Suiren-1.0 comprising three specialized variants (Suiren-Base, Suiren-Dimer, and Suiren-ConfAvg) is integrated within an algorithmic framework that bridges the gap between 3D conformational geometry and 2D statistical ensemble spaces. We first pre-train Suiren-Base (1.8B parameters) on a 70M-sample Density Functional Theory dataset using spatial self-supervision and SE(3)-equivariant architectures, achieving robust performance in quantum property prediction. Suiren-Dimer extends this capability through continued pre-training on 13.5M intermolecular interaction samples. To enable efficient downstream application, we propose Conformation Compression Distillation (CCD), a diffusion-based framework that distills complex 3D structural representations into 2D conformation-averaged representations. This yields the lightweight Suiren-ConfAvg, which generates high-fidelity representations from SMILES or molecular graphs. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate that Suiren-1.0 establishes state-of-the-art results across a range of tasks. All models and benchmarks are open-sourced.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

Molecular pretrained representations (MPR) has emerged as a powerful approach for addressing the challenge of limited supervised data in applications such as drug discovery and material design. While early MPR methods relied on 1D sequences and 2D graphs, recent advancements have incorporated 3D conformational information to capture rich atomic interactions. However, these prior models treat molecules merely as discrete atom sets, overlooking the space surrounding them. We argue from a physical perspective that only modeling these discrete points is insufficient. We first present a simple yet insightful observation: naively adding randomly sampled virtual points beyond atoms can surprisingly enhance MPR performance. In light of this, we propose a principled framework that incorporates the entire 3D space spanned by molecules. We implement the framework via a novel Transformer-based architecture, dubbed SpaceFormer, with three key components: (1) grid-based space discretization; (2) grid sampling/merging; and (3) efficient 3D positional encoding. Extensive experiments show that SpaceFormer significantly outperforms previous 3D MPR models across various downstream tasks with limited data, validating the benefit of leveraging the additional 3D space beyond atoms in MPR models.

Conformer has proven to be effective in many speech processing tasks. It combines the benefits of extracting local dependencies using convolutions and global dependencies using self-attention. Inspired by this, we propose a more flexible, interpretable and customizable encoder alternative, Branchformer, with parallel branches for modeling various ranged dependencies in end-to-end speech processing. In each encoder layer, one branch employs self-attention or its variant to capture long-range dependencies, while the other branch utilizes an MLP module with convolutional gating (cgMLP) to extract local relationships. We conduct experiments on several speech recognition and spoken language understanding benchmarks. Results show that our model outperforms both Transformer and cgMLP. It also matches with or outperforms state-of-the-art results achieved by Conformer. Furthermore, we show various strategies to reduce computation thanks to the two-branch architecture, including the ability to have variable inference complexity in a single trained model. The weights learned for merging branches indicate how local and global dependencies are utilized in different layers, which benefits model designing.

Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) has shown promise for grounded and interpretable reasoning, yet existing approaches often fail to provide reliable coverage guarantees over retrieved answers. While Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for producing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, prior methods suffer from critical limitations in both calibration validity and score discriminability, resulting in violated coverage guarantees and excessively large prediction sets. To address these pitfalls, we propose Conformal Path Reasoning (CPR), a trustworthy KGQA framework with two key innovations. First, we perform query-level conformal calibration over path-level scores, preserving the exchangeability while generating path prediction sets. Second, we introduce the Residual Conformal Value Network (RCVNet), a lightweight module trained via PUCT-guided exploration to learn discriminative path-level nonconformity scores. Experiments on benchmarks show that CPR significantly improves the Empirical Coverage Rate by 34% while reducing average prediction set size by 40% compared to conformal baselines. These results validate the efficacy of CPR in satisfying coverage guarantees with substantially more compact answer sets.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

Foundation models applied to bio-molecular space hold promise to accelerate drug discovery. Molecular representation is key to building such models. Previous works have typically focused on a single representation or view of the molecules. Here, we develop a multi-view foundation model approach, that integrates molecular views of graph, image and text. Single-view foundation models are each pre-trained on a dataset of up to 200M molecules and then aggregated into combined representations. Our multi-view model is validated on a diverse set of 18 tasks, encompassing ligand-protein binding, molecular solubility, metabolism and toxicity. We show that the multi-view models perform robustly and are able to balance the strengths and weaknesses of specific views. We then apply this model to screen compounds against a large (>100 targets) set of G Protein-Coupled receptors (GPCRs). From this library of targets, we identify 33 that are related to Alzheimer's disease. On this subset, we employ our model to identify strong binders, which are validated through structure-based modeling and identification of key binding motifs.

When manipulating three-dimensional data, it is possible to ensure that rotational and translational symmetries are respected by applying so-called SE(3)-equivariant models. Protein structure prediction is a prominent example of a task which displays these symmetries. Recent work in this area has successfully made use of an SE(3)-equivariant model, applying an iterative SE(3)-equivariant attention mechanism. Motivated by this application, we implement an iterative version of the SE(3)-Transformer, an SE(3)-equivariant attention-based model for graph data. We address the additional complications which arise when applying the SE(3)-Transformer in an iterative fashion, compare the iterative and single-pass versions on a toy problem, and consider why an iterative model may be beneficial in some problem settings. We make the code for our implementation available to the community.

Understanding protein dynamics is critical for elucidating their biological functions. The increasing availability of molecular dynamics (MD) data enables the training of deep generative models to efficiently explore the conformational space of proteins. However, existing approaches either fail to explicitly capture the temporal dependencies between conformations or do not support direct generation of time-independent samples. To address these limitations, we introduce ConfRover, an autoregressive model that simultaneously learns protein conformation and dynamics from MD trajectories, supporting both time-dependent and time-independent sampling. At the core of our model is a modular architecture comprising: (i) an encoding layer, adapted from protein folding models, that embeds protein-specific information and conformation at each time frame into a latent space; (ii) a temporal module, a sequence model that captures conformational dynamics across frames; and (iii) an SE(3) diffusion model as the structure decoder, generating conformations in continuous space. Experiments on ATLAS, a large-scale protein MD dataset of diverse structures, demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in learning conformational dynamics and supporting a wide range of downstream tasks. ConfRover is the first model to sample both protein conformations and trajectories within a single framework, offering a novel and flexible approach for learning from protein MD data.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

Model dimension (d_{model}) is a fundamental hyperparameter in transformer language models, yet its role in setting the geometric limits of feature representation remains under-explored. Grounded in the Linear Representation and Superposition Hypotheses - which propose that models encode features as near-orthogonal directions in latent space - we develop a framework for estimating how many such directions a model can support. We first establish the embedding matrix as a measurable proxy for near-orthogonality constraints across the latent space: the boundary between meaningful token relationships and incidental similarity in the pairwise cosine similarity distribution gives a concrete estimate of the model's accepted deviation varepsilon from perfect orthogonality. Applying this metric across dozens of open-source models reveals two classes: models with high varepsilon whose embeddings lack near-orthogonal structure, and models with low varepsilon that maintain it. We then show that the standard Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma greatly underestimates the packing efficiency of trained representations, and derive an adjusted capacity formula in which the number of near-orthogonal directions depends on the ratio of vectors to dimensions (k/d) rather than the raw count - a single modification that cuts prediction error by two orders of magnitude with no extra parameters. Combining these results, we define representational capacity as an upper bound on the number of distinguishable directions available for features and embeddings in a model's latent space. Capacity is exponentially sensitive to varepsilon, and larger models favor tighter orthogonality constraints over maximizing raw capacity - a pattern compatible with several explanations (a stability-capacity trade-off, a ceiling on usable concepts, or confounds with model scale) that we leave to future work.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Many have observed that the development and deployment of generative machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models follow a distinctive pattern in which pre-trained models are adapted and fine-tuned for specific downstream tasks. However, there is limited empirical work that examines the structure of these interactions. This paper analyzes 1.86 million models on Hugging Face, a leading peer production platform for model development. Our study of model family trees -- networks that connect fine-tuned models to their base or parent -- reveals sprawling fine-tuning lineages that vary widely in size and structure. Using an evolutionary biology lens to study ML models, we use model metadata and model cards to measure the genetic similarity and mutation of traits over model families. We find that models tend to exhibit a family resemblance, meaning their genetic markers and traits exhibit more overlap when they belong to the same model family. However, these similarities depart in certain ways from standard models of asexual reproduction, because mutations are fast and directed, such that two `sibling' models tend to exhibit more similarity than parent/child pairs. Further analysis of the directional drifts of these mutations reveals qualitative insights about the open machine learning ecosystem: Licenses counter-intuitively drift from restrictive, commercial licenses towards permissive or copyleft licenses, often in violation of upstream license's terms; models evolve from multi-lingual compatibility towards english-only compatibility; and model cards reduce in length and standardize by turning, more often, to templates and automatically generated text. Overall, this work takes a step toward an empirically grounded understanding of model fine-tuning and suggests that ecological models and methods can yield novel scientific insights.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

We study the implications of the modeling choice to use a graph, instead of a hypergraph, to represent real-world interconnected systems whose constituent relationships are of higher order by nature. Such a modeling choice typically involves an underlying projection process that maps the original hypergraph onto a graph, and is common in graph-based analysis. While hypergraph projection can potentially lead to loss of higher-order relations, there exists very limited studies on the consequences of doing so, as well as its remediation. This work fills this gap by doing two things: (1) we develop analysis based on graph and set theory, showing two ubiquitous patterns of hyperedges that are root to structural information loss in all hypergraph projections; we also quantify the combinatorial impossibility of recovering the lost higher-order structures if no extra help is provided; (2) we still seek to recover the lost higher-order structures in hypergraph projection, and in light of (1)'s findings we propose to relax the problem into a learning-based setting. Under this setting, we develop a learning-based hypergraph reconstruction method based on an important statistic of hyperedge distributions that we find. Our reconstruction method is evaluated on 8 real-world datasets under different settings, and exhibits consistently good performance. We also demonstrate benefits of the reconstructed hypergraphs via use cases of protein rankings and link predictions.

Recent developments in deep learning have made remarkable progress in speeding up the prediction of quantum chemical (QC) properties by removing the need for expensive electronic structure calculations like density functional theory. However, previous methods learned from 1D SMILES sequences or 2D molecular graphs failed to achieve high accuracy as QC properties primarily depend on the 3D equilibrium conformations optimized by electronic structure methods, far different from the sequence-type and graph-type data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Uni-Mol+ to tackle this challenge. Uni-Mol+ first generates a raw 3D molecule conformation from inexpensive methods such as RDKit. Then, the raw conformation is iteratively updated to its target DFT equilibrium conformation using neural networks, and the learned conformation will be used to predict the QC properties. To effectively learn this update process towards the equilibrium conformation, we introduce a two-track Transformer model backbone and train it with the QC property prediction task. We also design a novel approach to guide the model's training process. Our extensive benchmarking results demonstrate that the proposed Uni-Mol+ significantly improves the accuracy of QC property prediction in various datasets. We have made the code and model publicly available at https://github.com/dptech-corp/Uni-Mol.

In the domain of model-based engineering, models are essential components that enable system design and analysis. Traditionally, the creation of these models has been a manual process requiring not only deep modeling expertise but also substantial domain knowledge of target systems. With the rapid advancement of generative artificial intelligence, large language models (LLMs) show potential for automating model generation. This work explores the generation of instance models using LLMs, focusing specifically on producing XMI-based instance models from Ecore metamodels and natural language specifications. We observe that current LLMs struggle to directly generate valid XMI models. To address this, we propose a two-step approach: first, using LLMs to produce a simplified structured output containing all necessary instance model information, namely a conceptual instance model, and then compiling this intermediate representation into a valid XMI file. The conceptual instance model is format-independent, allowing it to be transformed into various modeling formats via different compilers. The feasibility of the proposed method has been demonstrated using several LLMs, including GPT-4o, o1-preview, Llama 3.1 (8B and 70B). Results show that the proposed method significantly improves the usability of LLMs for instance model generation tasks. Notably, the smaller open-source model, Llama 3.1 70B, demonstrated performance comparable to proprietary GPT models within the proposed framework.

The Conformer has become the most popular encoder model for automatic speech recognition (ASR). It adds convolution modules to a transformer to learn both local and global dependencies. In this work we describe a faster, more memory-efficient, and better-performing transformer, called Zipformer. Modeling changes include: 1) a U-Net-like encoder structure where middle stacks operate at lower frame rates; 2) reorganized block structure with more modules, within which we re-use attention weights for efficiency; 3) a modified form of LayerNorm called BiasNorm allows us to retain some length information; 4) new activation functions SwooshR and SwooshL work better than Swish. We also propose a new optimizer, called ScaledAdam, which scales the update by each tensor's current scale to keep the relative change about the same, and also explictly learns the parameter scale. It achieves faster convergence and better performance than Adam. Extensive experiments on LibriSpeech, Aishell-1, and WenetSpeech datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed Zipformer over other state-of-the-art ASR models. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/k2-fsa/icefall.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have been shown effective for zero-shot (0shot) text classification. 0shot models based on natural language inference (NLI) and next sentence prediction (NSP) employ cross-encoder architecture and infer by making a forward pass through the model for each label-text pair separately. This increases the computational cost to make inferences linearly in the number of labels. In this work, we improve the efficiency of such cross-encoder-based 0shot models by restricting the number of likely labels using another fast base classifier-based conformal predictor (CP) calibrated on samples labeled by the 0shot model. Since a CP generates prediction sets with coverage guarantees, it reduces the number of target labels without excluding the most probable label based on the 0shot model. We experiment with three intent and two topic classification datasets. With a suitable CP for each dataset, we reduce the average inference time for NLI- and NSP-based models by 25.6% and 22.2% respectively, without dropping performance below the predefined error rate of 1%.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Prior work has shown that fine-tuning models on a narrow domain with misaligned data can lead to broad misalignment - a phenomenon termed "emergent misalignment" (Betley et al. 2025). While all tested models were susceptible to emergent misalignment, some models showed more resistance than others. Specifically the Qwen-2.5 family proved to be relatively resistant, while GPT-4o exhibited the strongest misalignment. In this paper we evaluate if current-generation open-weights models exhibit similar resistance to the Qwen-2.5 family and measure misalignment robustness over a range of model architectures and scales. We replicate the effect across nine modern open-weights models (Gemma 3 and Qwen 3 families, 1B-32B parameters). Models fine-tuned on insecure code generation show a 0.68% misalignment rate (compared to 0.07% for base models), matching the lower end of prior open-model results but dramatically lower than GPT-4o's 20%. We identify a critical format-dependent vulnerability: requiring JSON output doubles misalignment rates compared to natural language prompts (0.96% vs 0.42%). This suggests that structural constraints may bypass safety training by reducing the model's 'degrees of freedom' to refuse. These findings confirm emergent misalignment as a reproducible phenomenon in modern open-weights models, with rates substantially lower than observed in proprietary systems.

Recent work discovered Emergent Misalignment (EM): fine-tuning large language models on narrowly harmful datasets can lead them to become broadly misaligned. A survey of experts prior to publication revealed this was highly unexpected, demonstrating critical gaps in our understanding of model alignment. In this work, we both advance understanding and provide tools for future research. Using new narrowly misaligned datasets, we create a set of improved model organisms that achieve 99% coherence (vs. 67% prior), work with smaller 0.5B parameter models (vs. 32B), and that induce misalignment using a single rank-1 LoRA adapter. We demonstrate that EM occurs robustly across diverse model sizes, three model families, and numerous training protocols including full supervised fine-tuning. Leveraging these cleaner model organisms, we isolate a mechanistic phase transition and demonstrate that it corresponds to a robust behavioural phase transition in all studied organisms. Aligning large language models is critical for frontier AI safety, yet EM exposes how far we are from achieving this robustly. By distilling clean model organisms that isolate a minimal alignment-compromising change, and where this is learnt, we establish a foundation for future research into understanding and mitigating alignment risks in LLMs.

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops proposed that such loops would lead to a phenomenon termed model collapse, under which performance progressively degrades with each model-data feedback iteration until fitted models become useless. However, those studies largely assumed that new data replace old data over time, where an arguably more realistic assumption is that data accumulate over time. In this paper, we ask: what effect does accumulating data have on model collapse? We empirically study this question by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing the original real data by each generation's synthetic data does indeed tend towards model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating the successive generations of synthetic data alongside the original real data avoids model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures, and hyperparameters. We obtain similar results for deep generative models on other types of real data: diffusion models for molecule conformation generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. To understand why accumulating data can avoid model collapse, we use an analytically tractable framework introduced by prior work in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' outputs. Previous work used this framework to show that if data are replaced, the test error increases with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this argument to prove that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations, meaning model collapse no longer occurs.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Large language models (LLMs) may exhibit undesirable behaviors. Recent efforts have focused on aligning these models to prevent harmful generation. Despite these efforts, studies have shown that even a well-conducted alignment process can be easily circumvented, whether intentionally or accidentally. Do alignment fine-tuning have robust effects on models, or are merely superficial? In this work, we answer this question through both theoretical and empirical means. Empirically, we demonstrate the elasticity of post-alignment models, i.e., the tendency to revert to the behavior distribution formed during the pre-training phase upon further fine-tuning. Using compression theory, we formally derive that such fine-tuning process disproportionately undermines alignment compared to pre-training, potentially by orders of magnitude. We conduct experimental validations to confirm the presence of elasticity across models of varying types and sizes. Specifically, we find that model performance declines rapidly before reverting to the pre-training distribution, after which the rate of decline drops significantly. We further reveal that elasticity positively correlates with increased model size and the expansion of pre-training data. Our discovery signifies the importance of taming the inherent elasticity of LLMs, thereby overcoming the resistance of LLMs to alignment finetuning.

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation (procedural fairness), we analyze the holistic decision-making pipeline to evaluate substantive fairness-the equity of downstream outcomes. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound that decomposes prediction-set size disparity into interpretable components, clarifying how label-clustered CP helps control method-driven contributions to unfairness. To facilitate scalable empirical analysis, we introduce an LLM-in-the-loop evaluator that approximates human assessment of substantive fairness across diverse modalities. Our experiments reveal that label-clustered CP variants consistently deliver superior substantive fairness. Finally, we empirically show that equalized set sizes, rather than coverage, strongly correlate with improved substantive fairness, enabling practitioners to design more fair CP systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/llm-in-the-loop-conformal-fairness.

Precision agriculture in general, and precision weeding in particular, have greatly benefited from the major advancements in deep learning and computer vision. A large variety of commercial robotic solutions are already available and deployed. However, the adoption by farmers of such solutions is still low for many reasons, an important one being the lack of trust in these systems. This is in great part due to the opaqueness and complexity of deep neural networks and the manufacturers' inability to provide valid guarantees on their performance. Conformal prediction, a well-established methodology in the machine learning community, is an efficient and reliable strategy for providing trustworthy guarantees on the predictions of any black-box model under very minimal constraints. Bridging the gap between the safe machine learning and precision agriculture communities, this article showcases conformal prediction in action on the task of precision weeding through deep learning-based image classification. After a detailed presentation of the conformal prediction methodology and the development of a precision spraying pipeline based on a ''conformalized'' neural network and well-defined spraying decision rules, the article evaluates this pipeline on two real-world scenarios: one under in-distribution conditions, the other reflecting a near out-of-distribution setting. The results show that we are able to provide formal, i.e. certifiable, guarantees on spraying at least 90% of the weeds.

The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent years, numerous machine learning algorithms have been proposed for RUL estimation, mainly focusing on providing more accurate RUL predictions. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the problem, such as inherent randomness of systems failure, lack of knowledge regarding their future states, and inaccuracy of the underlying predictive models, making it infeasible to predict the RULs precisely. Hence, it is of utmost importance to quantify the uncertainty alongside the RUL predictions. In this work, we investigate the conformal prediction (CP) framework that represents uncertainty by predicting sets of possible values for the target variable (intervals in the case of RUL) instead of making point predictions. Under very mild technical assumptions, CP formally guarantees that the actual value (true RUL) is covered by the predicted set with a degree of certainty that can be prespecified. We study three CP algorithms to conformalize any single-point RUL predictor and turn it into a valid interval predictor. Finally, we conformalize two single-point RUL predictors, deep convolutional neural networks and gradient boosting, and illustrate their performance on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data sets.

Transformer models are deployed in a wide range of settings, from multi-accelerator clusters to standalone mobile phones. The diverse inference constraints in these scenarios necessitate practitioners to train foundation models such as PaLM 2, Llama, & ViTs as a series of models of varying sizes. Due to significant training costs, only a select few model sizes are trained and supported, limiting more fine-grained control over relevant tradeoffs, including latency, cost, and accuracy. This work introduces MatFormer, a nested Transformer architecture designed to offer elasticity in a variety of deployment constraints. Each Feed Forward Network (FFN) block of a MatFormer model is jointly optimized with a few nested smaller FFN blocks. This training procedure allows for the Mix'n'Match of model granularities across layers -- i.e., a trained universal MatFormer model enables extraction of hundreds of accurate smaller models, which were never explicitly optimized. We empirically demonstrate MatFormer's effectiveness across different model classes (decoders & encoders), modalities (language & vision), and scales (up to 2.6B parameters). We find that a 2.6B decoder-only MatFormer language model (MatLM) allows us to extract smaller models spanning from 1.5B to 2.6B, each exhibiting comparable validation loss and one-shot downstream evaluations to their independently trained counterparts. Furthermore, we observe that smaller encoders extracted from a universal MatFormer-based ViT (MatViT) encoder preserve the metric-space structure for adaptive large-scale retrieval. Finally, we showcase that speculative decoding with the accurate and consistent submodels extracted from MatFormer can further reduce inference latency.

This paper presents Conformer-1, an end-to-end Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) model trained on an extensive dataset of 570k hours of speech audio data, 91% of which was acquired from publicly available sources. To achieve this, we perform Noisy Student Training after generating pseudo-labels for the unlabeled public data using a strong Conformer RNN-T baseline model. The addition of these pseudo-labeled data results in remarkable improvements in relative Word Error Rate (WER) by 11.5% and 24.3% for our asynchronous and realtime models, respectively. Additionally, the model is more robust to background noise owing to the addition of these data. The results obtained in this study demonstrate that the incorporation of pseudo-labeled publicly available data is a highly effective strategy for improving ASR accuracy and noise robustness.

We resolve difficulties in training and sampling from a discrete generative model by learning a smoothed energy function, sampling from the smoothed data manifold with Langevin Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and projecting back to the true data manifold with one-step denoising. Our Discrete Walk-Jump Sampling formalism combines the contrastive divergence training of an energy-based model and improved sample quality of a score-based model, while simplifying training and sampling by requiring only a single noise level. We evaluate the robustness of our approach on generative modeling of antibody proteins and introduce the distributional conformity score to benchmark protein generative models. By optimizing and sampling from our models for the proposed distributional conformity score, 97-100% of generated samples are successfully expressed and purified and 70% of functional designs show equal or improved binding affinity compared to known functional antibodies on the first attempt in a single round of laboratory experiments. We also report the first demonstration of long-run fast-mixing MCMC chains where diverse antibody protein classes are visited in a single MCMC chain.

Large language models remain vulnerable to jailbreaks that elicit harmful responses, yet the mechanism behind harmful response generation is poorly understood. Here, we investigate how this capability is organized within model parameters. We identify and prune parameters that specifically support harmful compliance, providing a direct mechanistic analysis at the parameter level. We find that this capability depends on a sparse set of critical parameters: pruning these parameters substantially reduces harmful compliance while causing only limited degradation in benign capabilities, suggesting that key components of harmful generation are separable from those of general utility. Parameters identified from one harm category also reduce harmful responses in others, indicating components shared across harm types. This separability appears primarily in aligned models, suggesting that alignment training internally reshapes the harmful response mechanism even when behavioral safeguards remain brittle. We further show that harmful response generation is dissociable from the ability to recognize and reason about harmfulness. Finally, we extend our analysis to emergent misalignment and identify a sparse set of parameters contributing to it, with substantial sharing across fine-tuning domains. Together, these results reveal a consistent parameter-level organization underlying unsafe behaviors and point toward more principled interventions for improving model safety.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

In this work we introduce RITA: a suite of autoregressive generative models for protein sequences, with up to 1.2 billion parameters, trained on over 280 million protein sequences belonging to the UniRef-100 database. Such generative models hold the promise of greatly accelerating protein design. We conduct the first systematic study of how capabilities evolve with model size for autoregressive transformers in the protein domain: we evaluate RITA models in next amino acid prediction, zero-shot fitness, and enzyme function prediction, showing benefits from increased scale. We release the RITA models openly, to the benefit of the research community.

Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding poses is crucial for structure-based drug design, yet existing methods struggle to balance speed, accuracy, and physical plausibility. We introduce Matcha, a novel molecular docking pipeline that combines multi-stage flow matching with learned scoring and physical validity filtering. Our approach consists of three sequential stages applied consecutively to refine docking predictions, each implemented as a flow matching model operating on appropriate geometric spaces (R^3, SO(3), and SO(2)). We enhance the prediction quality through a dedicated scoring model and apply unsupervised physical validity filters to eliminate unrealistic poses. Compared to various approaches, Matcha demonstrates superior performance on Astex and PDBbind test sets in terms of docking success rate and physical plausibility. Moreover, our method works approximately 25 times faster than modern large-scale co-folding models. The model weights and inference code to reproduce our results are available at https://github.com/LigandPro/Matcha.

Recent advances in fast sampling methods for diffusion models have demonstrated significant potential to accelerate generation on image modalities. We apply these methods to 3-dimensional molecular conformations by building on the recently introduced GeoLDM equivariant latent diffusion model (Xu et al., 2023). We evaluate trade-offs between speed gains and quality loss, as measured by molecular conformation structural stability. We introduce Equivariant Latent Progressive Distillation, a fast sampling algorithm that preserves geometric equivariance and accelerates generation from latent diffusion models. Our experiments demonstrate up to 7.5x gains in sampling speed with limited degradation in molecular stability. These results suggest this accelerated sampling method has strong potential for high-throughput in silico molecular conformations screening in computational biochemistry, drug discovery, and life sciences applications.

Learning compatible representations enables the interchangeable use of semantic features as models are updated over time. This is particularly relevant in search and retrieval systems where it is crucial to avoid reprocessing of the gallery images with the updated model. While recent research has shown promising empirical evidence, there is still a lack of comprehensive theoretical understanding about learning compatible representations. In this paper, we demonstrate that the stationary representations learned by the d-Simplex fixed classifier optimally approximate compatibility representation according to the two inequality constraints of its formal definition. This not only establishes a solid foundation for future works in this line of research but also presents implications that can be exploited in practical learning scenarios. An exemplary application is the now-standard practice of downloading and fine-tuning new pre-trained models. Specifically, we show the strengths and critical issues of stationary representations in the case in which a model undergoing sequential fine-tuning is asynchronously replaced by downloading a better-performing model pre-trained elsewhere. Such a representation enables seamless delivery of retrieval service (i.e., no reprocessing of gallery images) and offers improved performance without operational disruptions during model replacement. Code available at: https://github.com/miccunifi/iamcl2r.

Massive molecular simulations of drug-target proteins have been used as a tool to understand disease mechanism and develop therapeutics. This work focuses on learning a generative neural network on a structural ensemble of a drug-target protein, e.g. SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein, obtained from computationally expensive molecular simulations. Model tasks involve characterizing the distinct structural fluctuations of the protein bound to various drug molecules, as well as efficient generation of protein conformations that can serve as an complement of a molecular simulation engine. Specifically, we present a geometric autoencoder framework to learn separate latent space encodings of the intrinsic and extrinsic geometries of the protein structure. For this purpose, the proposed Protein Geometric AutoEncoder (ProGAE) model is trained on the protein contact map and the orientation of the backbone bonds of the protein. Using ProGAE latent embeddings, we reconstruct and generate the conformational ensemble of a protein at or near the experimental resolution, while gaining better interpretability and controllability in term of protein structure generation from the learned latent space. Additionally, ProGAE models are transferable to a different state of the same protein or to a new protein of different size, where only the dense layer decoding from the latent representation needs to be retrained. Results show that our geometric learning-based method enjoys both accuracy and efficiency for generating complex structural variations, charting the path toward scalable and improved approaches for analyzing and enhancing high-cost simulations of drug-target proteins.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

We report a flexible language-model based deep learning strategy, applied here to solve complex forward and inverse problems in protein modeling, based on an attention neural network that integrates transformer and graph convolutional architectures in a causal multi-headed graph mechanism, to realize a generative pretrained model. The model is applied to predict secondary structure content (per-residue level and overall content), protein solubility, and sequencing tasks. Further trained on inverse tasks, the model is rendered capable of designing proteins with these properties as target features. The model is formulated as a general framework, completely prompt-based, and can be adapted for a variety of downstream tasks. We find that adding additional tasks yields emergent synergies that the model exploits in improving overall performance, beyond what would be possible by training a model on each dataset alone. Case studies are presented to validate the method, yielding protein designs specifically focused on structural proteins, but also exploring the applicability in the design of soluble, antimicrobial biomaterials. While our model is trained to ultimately perform 8 distinct tasks, with available datasets it can be extended to solve additional problems. In a broader sense, this work illustrates a form of multiscale modeling that relates a set of ultimate building blocks (here, byte-level utf8 characters) to complex output. This materiomic scheme captures complex emergent relationships between universal building block and resulting properties via a synergizing learning capacity to express a set of potentialities embedded in the knowledge used in training, via the interplay of universality and diversity.

When learning simulations for modeling physical phenomena in industrial designs, geometrical variabilities are of prime interest. While classical regression techniques prove effective for parameterized geometries, practical scenarios often involve the absence of shape parametrization during the inference stage, leaving us with only mesh discretizations as available data. Learning simulations from such mesh-based representations poses significant challenges, with recent advances relying heavily on deep graph neural networks to overcome the limitations of conventional machine learning approaches. Despite their promising results, graph neural networks exhibit certain drawbacks, including their dependency on extensive datasets and limitations in providing built-in predictive uncertainties or handling large meshes. In this work, we propose a machine learning method that do not rely on graph neural networks. Complex geometrical shapes and variations with fixed topology are dealt with using well-known mesh morphing onto a common support, combined with classical dimensionality reduction techniques and Gaussian processes. The proposed methodology can easily deal with large meshes without the need for explicit shape parameterization and provides crucial predictive uncertainties, which are essential for informed decision-making. In the considered numerical experiments, the proposed method is competitive with respect to existing graph neural networks, regarding training efficiency and accuracy of the predictions.

We introduce DrugFlow, a generative model for structure-based drug design that integrates continuous flow matching with discrete Markov bridges, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in learning chemical, geometric, and physical aspects of three-dimensional protein-ligand data. We endow DrugFlow with an uncertainty estimate that is able to detect out-of-distribution samples. To further enhance the sampling process towards distribution regions with desirable metric values, we propose a joint preference alignment scheme applicable to both flow matching and Markov bridge frameworks. Furthermore, we extend our model to also explore the conformational landscape of the protein by jointly sampling side chain angles and molecules.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently constitute the dominant paradigm for large language models (LLMs). Energy-based models (EBMs) represent another class of models, which have historically been less prevalent in LLM development, yet naturally characterize the optimal policy in post-training alignment. In this paper, we provide a unified view of these two model classes. Taking the chain rule of probability as a starting point, we establish an explicit bijection between ARMs and EBMs in function space, which we show to correspond to a special case of the soft Bellman equation in maximum entropy reinforcement learning. Building upon this bijection, we derive the equivalence between supervised learning of ARMs and EBMs. Furthermore, we analyze the distillation of EBMs into ARMs by providing theoretical error bounds. Our results provide insights into the ability of ARMs to plan ahead, despite being based on the next-token prediction paradigm.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

Functional group replacement is a pivotal approach in cheminformatics to enable the design of novel chemical compounds with tailored properties. Traditional methods for functional group removal and replacement often rely on rule-based heuristics, which can be limited in their ability to generate diverse and novel chemical structures. Recently, transformer-based models have shown promise in improving the accuracy and efficiency of molecular transformations, but existing approaches typically focus on single-step modeling, lacking the guarantee of structural similarity. In this work, we seek to advance the state of the art by developing a novel two-stage transformer model for functional group removal and replacement. Unlike one-shot approaches that generate entire molecules in a single pass, our method generates the functional group to be removed and appended sequentially, ensuring strict substructure-level modifications. Using a matched molecular pairs (MMPs) dataset derived from ChEMBL, we trained an encoder-decoder transformer model with SMIRKS-based representations to capture transformation rules effectively. Extensive evaluations demonstrate our method's ability to generate chemically valid transformations, explore diverse chemical spaces, and maintain scalability across varying search sizes.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

We develop a principled procedure for determining when a large language model (LLM) should abstain from responding (e.g., by saying "I don't know") in a general domain, instead of resorting to possibly "hallucinating" a non-sensical or incorrect answer. Building on earlier approaches that use self-consistency as a more reliable measure of model confidence, we propose using the LLM itself to self-evaluate the similarity between each of its sampled responses for a given query. We then further leverage conformal prediction techniques to develop an abstention procedure that benefits from rigorous theoretical guarantees on the hallucination rate (error rate). Experimentally, our resulting conformal abstention method reliably bounds the hallucination rate on various closed-book, open-domain generative question answering datasets, while also maintaining a significantly less conservative abstention rate on a dataset with long responses (Temporal Sequences) compared to baselines using log-probability scores to quantify uncertainty, while achieveing comparable performance on a dataset with short answers (TriviaQA). To evaluate the experiments automatically, one needs to determine if two responses are equivalent given a question. Following standard practice, we use a thresholded similarity function to determine if two responses match, but also provide a method for calibrating the threshold based on conformal prediction, with theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of the match prediction, which might be of independent interest.

Existing research on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) primarily focuses on improving overall question-answering accuracy, often overlooking the quality of sub-claims within generated responses. Recent methods that attempt to improve RAG trustworthiness, such as through auto-evaluation metrics, lack probabilistic guarantees or require ground truth answers. To address these limitations, we propose Conformal-RAG, a novel framework inspired by recent applications of conformal prediction (CP) on large language models (LLMs). Conformal-RAG leverages CP and internal information from the RAG mechanism to offer statistical guarantees on response quality. It ensures group-conditional coverage spanning multiple sub-domains without requiring manual labelling of conformal sets, making it suitable for complex RAG applications. Compared to existing RAG auto-evaluation methods, Conformal-RAG offers statistical guarantees on the quality of refined sub-claims, ensuring response reliability without the need for ground truth answers. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that by leveraging information from the RAG system, Conformal-RAG retains up to 60\% more high-quality sub-claims from the response compared to direct applications of CP to LLMs, while maintaining the same reliability guarantee.

Despite the power of Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4, they still struggle with tasks that require generating complex, structured outputs. In this study, we assess the capability of Current LLMs in generating complex structured data and propose a structure-aware fine-tuning approach as a solution to improve this ability. To perform a comprehensive evaluation, we propose Struc-Bench, include five representative LLMs (i.e., GPT-NeoX 20B, GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Vicuna) and evaluate them on our carefully constructed datasets spanning raw text, HTML, and LaTeX tables. Based on our analysis of current model performance, we identify specific common formatting errors and areas of potential improvement. To address complex formatting requirements, we utilize FormatCoT (Chain-of-Thought) to generate format instructions from target outputs. Our experiments show that our structure-aware fine-tuning method, when applied to LLaMA-7B, significantly improves adherence to natural language constraints, outperforming other evaluated LLMs. Based on these results, we present an ability map of model capabilities from six dimensions (i.e., coverage, formatting, reasoning, comprehension, pragmatics, and hallucination). This map highlights the weaknesses of LLMs in handling complex structured outputs and suggests promising directions for future work. Our code and models can be found at https://github.com/gersteinlab/Struc-Bench.