Daily Papers

Intelligent Transportation Systems deployed on highways predominantly rely on conventional RGB cameras for traffic perception and vehicle tracking. However, highway environments present unique challenges: the absence of artificial lighting infrastructure, combined with high vehicle velocities, results in severely degraded perception performance under low-light conditions. Specifically, nighttime scenarios suffer from motion blur, insufficient exposure, and poor signal-to-noise ratios, which catastrophically impair the reliability of RGB-based sensing systems. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Joint Event-RGB Adaptive Tracking (JEAT) framework. Unlike existing multi-sensor trackers constrained by rigid, hard-coded prioritization, JEAT merges asynchronous event streams and RGB frames into a unified joint data association optimization. By employing an Adaptive Extended Kalman Filter to continuously estimate measurement noise via NIS statistics, the framework dynamically weights and fuses both modalities, optimally harnessing event streams during dark or high-speed motion while leveraging RGB frames under bright or static conditions. Furthermore, given the absence of publicly available datasets tailored for event-based highway perception with diverse environmental conditions, we present SEHN, a large-scale synthetic dataset generated using the CARLA simulator. Our dataset encompasses diverse environmental conditions (daytime, nighttime, nighttime with out artificial lighting) and varying traffic densities, providing synchronized RGB imagery and event streams to facilitate multi-modal fusion research. Our code and datasets will be available at https://github.com/haidongwang96/SEHN.

Combining the classical Kalman filter (KF) with a deep neural network (DNN) enables tracking in partially known state space (SS) models. A major limitation of current DNN-aided designs stems from the need to train them to filter data originating from a specific distribution and underlying SS model. Consequently, changes in the model parameters may require lengthy retraining. While the KF adapts through parameter tuning, the black-box nature of DNNs makes identifying tunable components difficult. Hence, we propose Adaptive KalmanNet (AKNet), a DNN-aided KF that can adapt to changes in the SS model without retraining. Inspired by recent advances in large language model fine-tuning paradigms, AKNet uses a compact hypernetwork to generate context-dependent modulation weights. Numerical evaluation shows that AKNet provides consistent state estimation performance across a continuous range of noise distributions, even when trained using data from limited noise settings.

In this article, we present a structured Kalman filter associated with the transformation matrix for observable Kalman canonical decomposition from conventional Kalman filter (CKF) in order to generate a more accurate time scale. The conventional Kalman filter is a special case of the proposed structured Kalman filter which yields the same predicted unobservable or observable states when some conditions are satisfied. We consider an optimization problem respective to the transformation matrix where the objective function is associated with not only the expected value of prediction error but also its variance. We reveal that such an objective function is a convex function and show some conditions under which CKF is nothing but the optimal algorithm if ideal computation is possible without computation error. A numerical example is presented to show the robustness of the proposed method in terms of the initial error covariance

State estimation of dynamical systems in real-time is a fundamental task in signal processing. For systems that are well-represented by a fully known linear Gaussian state space (SS) model, the celebrated Kalman filter (KF) is a low complexity optimal solution. However, both linearity of the underlying SS model and accurate knowledge of it are often not encountered in practice. Here, we present KalmanNet, a real-time state estimator that learns from data to carry out Kalman filtering under non-linear dynamics with partial information. By incorporating the structural SS model with a dedicated recurrent neural network module in the flow of the KF, we retain data efficiency and interpretability of the classic algorithm while implicitly learning complex dynamics from data. We demonstrate numerically that KalmanNet overcomes non-linearities and model mismatch, outperforming classic filtering methods operating with both mismatched and accurate domain knowledge.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

An invariant extended Kalman filter (IEKF) is developed for state estimation of serial rigid manipulators with an arbitrary number of links, formulated entirely within the Lie group SE(3). The group-affine property of the kinematic equations makes the linearised error dynamics autonomous, so the Riccati equation governs the true error covariance rather than a local approximation. A physically separated noise model treats gyroscope and accelerometer channels independently: the accelerometer provides translational twist via gravity-compensated integration, yielding a measurement covariance that scales with the sample interval in exact analogy with process noise discretisation; a state-dependent Coriolis noise term captures gyroscope noise propagating through the nonlinear dynamics, vanishing at rest and growing with twist magnitude. The filter is structured as a modular chain of per-link IEKFs in which the predicted covariance of each link depends on its predecessor only through the Adjoint-transformed posterior, giving linear computational cost in link count. Exponential ultimate boundedness in mean square is established via a Lie algebra Lyapunov function, with per-link bounds chained through the Adjoint operator norm to yield a stability certificate that is modular and scalable to arbitrary chain length. Numerical results validate the design.

Reconstruction-based methods are a dominant paradigm in time series anomaly detection (TSAD), however, their near-universal reliance on Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss results in statistically flawed reconstruction residuals. This fundamental weakness leads to noisy, unstable anomaly scores, hindering reliable detection. To address this, we propose Constrained Gaussian-Noise Optimization and Smoothing (COGNOS), a universal, model-agnostic enhancement framework that tackles this issue at its source. COGNOS introduces a novel Gaussian-White Noise Regularization strategy during training, which directly constrains the model's output residuals to conform to a Gaussian white noise distribution. This engineered statistical property creates the ideal precondition for our second contribution: Adaptive Residual Kalman Smoother that operates as a statistically robust estimator to denoise the raw anomaly scores. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that COGNOS consistently enhances the performance of state-of-the-art backbones significantly, validating the efficacy of coupling statistical regularization with adaptive filtering.

We introduce a new online adaptive filtering method called supervised multi-step adaptive filters (SMS-AF). Our method uses neural networks to control or optimize linear multi-delay or multi-channel frequency-domain filters and can flexibly scale-up performance at the cost of increased compute -- a property rarely addressed in the AF literature, but critical for many applications. To do so, we extend recent work with a set of improvements including feature pruning, a supervised loss, and multiple optimization steps per time-frame. These improvements work in a cohesive manner to unlock scaling. Furthermore, we show how our method relates to Kalman filtering and meta-adaptive filtering, making it seamlessly applicable to a diverse set of AF tasks. We evaluate our method on acoustic echo cancellation (AEC) and multi-channel speech enhancement tasks and compare against several baselines on standard synthetic and real-world datasets. Results show our method performance scales with inference cost and model capacity, yields multi-dB performance gains for both tasks, and is real-time capable on a single CPU core.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

As efficient alternatives to softmax Attention, linear State-Space Models (SSMs) achieve constant memory and linear compute, but maintain only a lossy, fading summary of the past, often leading to inferior performance in recall-oriented tasks. We propose Gated KalmaNet (GKA), a layer that accounts for the full past while maintaining SSM-style efficiency. We ground our approach in the Kalman Filter (KF) framework, which provides a principled solution for optimal inference in dynamical systems. We show that several existing SSM layers (DeltaNet, Gated DeltaNet, and Kimi Delta Attention) are approximations to the KF recurrence that assume identity error covariance, thereby ignoring how past measurements (keys and values) should optimally influence state updates. In contrast, GKA computes the exact Kalman gain by maintaining the full error covariance. Under a steady-state assumption that enables parallelization, this reduces to solving an online ridge regression problem with constant memory and linear compute cost. A critical insight is that standard KF equations are numerically unstable in low-precision environments (like bfloat16) and hard to parallelize on modern hardware. We address this through: (1) adaptive regularization with input-dependent gating to control the condition number of the ridge regression for numerical stability, and (2) Chebyshev Iteration, which we show is more stable than conventional iterative solvers in low-precision settings. We further develop hardware-aware chunk-wise kernels to enable efficient training. Empirically, GKA outperforms existing SSM layers (like Mamba2 and Gated DeltaNet) on short-context tasks and achieves more than 10\% relative improvement on long-context RAG and LongQA tasks up to 128k tokens.

We revisit High-Resolution Range Profile (HRRP) classification with aspect-angle conditioning. While prior work often assumes that aspect-angle information is incomplete during training or unavailable at inference, we study a setting where angles are available for all training samples and explicitly provided to the classifier. Using three datasets and a broad range of conditioning strategies and model architectures, we show that both single-profile and sequential classifiers benefit consistently from aspect-angle awareness, with an average accuracy gain of about 7% and improvements of up to 10%, depending on the model and dataset. In practice, aspect angles are not directly measured and must be estimated. We show that a causal Kalman filter can estimate them online with a median error of 5{\textdegree}, and that training and inference with estimated angles preserves most of the gains, supporting the proposed approach in realistic conditions.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

Model-free and reinforcement learning-based adaptive filtering methods are gaining traction for denoising in dynamic, non-stationary environments such as wireless signal channels, biomedical monitoring, and sensor networks. Traditional filters such as LMS, RLS, Wiener, and Kalman are often limited by assumptions of stationarity, the need for exact noise statistics, or fragile parameter tuning. This paper proposes an adaptive filtering framework using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), guided by a composite reward that balances SNR improvement, MSE reduction, and residual smoothness. We frame adaptive filtering as a Markov decision process and train a PPO agent to adjust filter coefficients directly in response to changing noise. Experiments on synthetic nonstationary signals with diverse noise types show that the PPO agent generalizes beyond its training distribution. Moreover, real-world analysis is made and evaluated on ECG recordings from the MIT-BIH Noise Stress Test Database corrupted by baseline wander, electrode motion, and muscle artifacts. The learned PPO policy achieves real-time inference and slightly outperforms strong classical baselines on ECG denoising. These results demonstrate the viability of policy-gradient reinforcement learning as a computationally efficient and flexible tool for adaptive filtering in nonlinear, time-varying dynamical systems.

Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) are algorithms that fuse inertial measurements of angular velocity and specific acceleration with supplementary sensors including GNSS and magnetometers to estimate the position, velocity and attitude, or extended pose, of a vehicle. The industry-standard extended Kalman filter (EKF) does not come with strong stability or robustness guarantees and can be subject to catastrophic failure. This paper exploits a Lie group symmetry of the INS dynamics to propose the first nonlinear observer for INS with error dynamics that are almost-globally asymptotically and locally exponentially stable, independently of the chosen gains. The observer is aided only by a GNSS measurement of position. As expected, the convergence guarantee depends on persistence of excitation of the vehicle's specific acceleration in the inertial frame. Simulation results demonstrate the observer's performance and its ability to converge from extreme errors in the initial state estimates.

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the time-evolving state of a dynamical system by integrating model predictions and noisy observations. It is commonly formulated as Bayesian filtering, but classical filters often struggle with accuracy or computational feasibility in high dimensions. Recently, score-based generative models have emerged as a scalable approach for high-dimensional data assimilation, enabling accurate modeling and sampling of complex distributions. However, existing score-based filters often specify the forward process independently of the data assimilation. As a result, the measurement-update step depends on heuristic approximations of the likelihood score, which can accumulate errors and degrade performance over time. Here, we propose a measurement-aware score-based filter (MASF) that defines a measurement-aware forward process directly from the measurement equation. This construction makes the likelihood score analytically tractable: for linear measurements, we derive the exact likelihood score and combine it with a learned prior score to obtain the posterior score. Numerical experiments covering a range of settings, including high-dimensional datasets, demonstrate improved accuracy and stability over existing score-based filters.

Despite the promising progress of face image super-resolution, video face super-resolution remains relatively under-explored. Existing approaches either adapt general video super-resolution networks to face datasets or apply established face image super-resolution models independently on individual video frames. These paradigms encounter challenges either in reconstructing facial details or maintaining temporal consistency. To address these issues, we introduce a novel framework called Kalman-inspired Feature Propagation (KEEP), designed to maintain a stable face prior over time. The Kalman filtering principles offer our method a recurrent ability to use the information from previously restored frames to guide and regulate the restoration process of the current frame. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in capturing facial details consistently across video frames. Code and video demo are available at https://jnjaby.github.io/projects/KEEP.

Thermal infrared (TIR) imaging is essential for UAV swarm operations in visually degraded environments. However, tracking tiny UAVs remains challenging due to limited appearance cues, frequent occlusions, and rapid maneuvers. Despite significant progress driven by benchmarks such as the Anti-UAV challenge, existing methods primarily prioritize accuracy while overlooking the computational constraints of real-time edge deployment. The standard Kalman Filter (KF) offers the efficiency required for edge devices, yet its constant-velocity assumption often breaks down under highly dynamic UAV motion and thermal sensor jitter. More sophisticated nonlinear estimators can improve robustness but often introduce additional computational costs. To address this gap, we propose an edge-aware online tracking pipeline centered on the Adaptive Kinematic Kalman Filter (AKKF), which augments the linear KF with state-dependent kinematic modeling while preserving real-time efficiency. Combined with transient false-positive suppression and kinematics-driven predictive coasting, the presented pipeline improves trajectory continuity under challenging TIR conditions. Experiments on the Beyond Strong Baseline (BSB) benchmark provide a starting point for edge-aware UAV tracking by jointly evaluating tracking performance and computational efficiency, offering insights toward future real-time deployment.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

The Kalman filter has been adopted in acoustic echo cancellation due to its robustness to double-talk, fast convergence, and good steady-state performance. The performance of Kalman filter is closely related to the estimation accuracy of the state noise covariance and the observation noise covariance. The estimation error may lead to unacceptable results, especially when the echo path suffers abrupt changes, the tracking performance of the Kalman filter could be degraded significantly. In this paper, we propose the neural Kalman filtering (NKF), which uses neural networks to implicitly model the covariance of the state noise and observation noise and to output the Kalman gain in real-time. Experimental results on both synthetic test sets and real-recorded test sets show that, the proposed NKF has superior convergence and re-convergence performance while ensuring low near-end speech degradation comparing with the state-of-the-art model-based methods. Moreover, the model size of the proposed NKF is merely 5.3 K and the RTF is as low as 0.09, which indicates that it can be deployed in low-resource platforms.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Transformers are a class of autoregressive deep learning architectures which have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in various vision, language, and robotics tasks. We revisit the problem of Kalman Filtering in linear dynamical systems and show that Transformers can approximate the Kalman Filter in a strong sense. Specifically, for any observable LTI system we construct an explicit causally-masked Transformer which implements the Kalman Filter, up to a small additive error which is bounded uniformly in time; we call our construction the Transformer Filter. Our construction is based on a two-step reduction. We first show that a softmax self-attention block can exactly represent a Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing estimator with a Gaussian kernel. We then show that this estimator closely approximates the Kalman Filter. We also investigate how the Transformer Filter can be used for measurement-feedback control and prove that the resulting nonlinear controllers closely approximate the performance of standard optimal control policies such as the LQG controller.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

State estimation in control and systems engineering traditionally requires extensive manual system identification or data-collection effort. However, transformer-based foundation models in other domains have reduced data requirements by leveraging pre-trained generalist models. Ultimately, developing zero-shot foundation models of system dynamics could drastically reduce manual deployment effort. While recent work shows that transformer-based end-to-end approaches can achieve zero-shot performance on unseen systems, they are limited to sensor models seen during training. We introduce the foundation model unscented Kalman filter (FM-UKF), which combines a transformer-based model of system dynamics with analytically known sensor models via an UKF, enabling generalization across varying dynamics without retraining for new sensor configurations. We evaluate FM-UKF on a new benchmark of container ship models with complex dynamics, demonstrating a competitive accuracy, effort, and robustness trade-off compared to classical methods with approximate system knowledge and to an end-to-end approach. The benchmark and dataset are open sourced to further support future research in zero-shot state estimation via foundation models.

We present a comprehensive framework for fusing measurements from multiple and generally placed accelerometers and gyroscopes to perform inertial navigation. Using the angular acceleration provided by the accelerometer array, we show that the numerical integration of the orientation can be done with second-order accuracy, which is more accurate compared to the traditional first-order accuracy that can be achieved when only using the gyroscopes. Since orientation errors are the most significant error source in inertial navigation, improving the orientation estimation reduces the overall navigation error. The practical performance benefit depends on prior knowledge of the inertial sensor array, and therefore we present four different state-space models using different underlying assumptions regarding the orientation modeling. The models are evaluated using a Lie Group Extended Kalman filter through simulations and real-world experiments. We also show how individual accelerometer biases are unobservable and can be replaced by a six-dimensional bias term whose dimension is fixed and independent of the number of accelerometers.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

This paper addresses limitations in 3D tracking-by-detection methods, particularly in identifying legitimate trajectories and reducing state estimation drift in Kalman filters. Existing methods often use threshold-based filtering for detection scores, which can fail for distant and occluded objects, leading to false positives. To tackle this, we propose a novel track validity mechanism and multi-stage observational gating process, significantly reducing ghost tracks and enhancing tracking performance. Our method achieves a 29.47% improvement in Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) on the KITTI validation dataset with the Second detector. Additionally, a refined Kalman filter term reduces localization noise, improving higher-order tracking accuracy (HOTA) by 4.8%. The online framework, RobMOT, outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple detectors, with HOTA improvements of up to 3.92% on the KITTI testing dataset and 8.7% on the validation dataset, while achieving low identity switch scores. RobMOT excels in challenging scenarios, tracking distant objects and prolonged occlusions, with a 1.77% MOTA improvement on the Waymo Open dataset, and operates at a remarkable 3221 FPS on a single CPU, proving its efficiency for real-time multi-object tracking.

Continual learning is an emerging subject in machine learning that aims to solve multiple tasks presented sequentially to the learner without forgetting previously learned tasks. Recently, many deep learning based approaches have been proposed for continual learning, however the mathematical foundations behind existing continual learning methods remain underdeveloped. On the other hand, adaptive filtering is a classic subject in signal processing with a rich history of mathematically principled methods. However, its role in understanding the foundations of continual learning has been underappreciated. In this tutorial, we review the basic principles behind both continual learning and adaptive filtering, and present a comparative analysis that highlights multiple connections between them. These connections allow us to enhance the mathematical foundations of continual learning based on existing results for adaptive filtering, extend adaptive filtering insights using existing continual learning methods, and discuss a few research directions for continual learning suggested by the historical developments in adaptive filtering.

Detection and tracking are the basic tasks of radar systems. Current joint detection tracking methods, which focus on dynamically adjusting detection thresholds from tracking results, still present challenges in fully utilizing the potential of radar signals. These are mainly reflected in the limited capacity of the constant false-alarm rate model to accurately represent information, the insufficient depiction of complex scenes, and the limited information acquired by the tracker. We introduce the Integrated Detection and Tracking based on radar feature (InDT) method, which comprises a network architecture for radar signal detection and a tracker that leverages detection assistance. The InDT detector extracts feature information from each Range-Doppler (RD) matrix and then returns the target position through the feature enhancement module and the detection head. The InDT tracker adaptively updates the measurement noise covariance of the Kalman filter based on detection confidence. The similarity of target RD features is measured by cosine distance, which enhances the data association process by combining location and feature information. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed method was validated through testing on both simulated data and publicly available datasets.

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those weights and we have developed a simpler approximate Kalman filter model that outperforms the current state of the art projected TD-Learning methods on several standard benchmark problems.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Kalman filter (KF) based methods for multi-object tracking (MOT) make an assumption that objects move linearly. While this assumption is acceptable for very short periods of occlusion, linear estimates of motion for prolonged time can be highly inaccurate. Moreover, when there is no measurement available to update Kalman filter parameters, the standard convention is to trust the priori state estimations for posteriori update. This leads to the accumulation of errors during a period of occlusion. The error causes significant motion direction variance in practice. In this work, we show that a basic Kalman filter can still obtain state-of-the-art tracking performance if proper care is taken to fix the noise accumulated during occlusion. Instead of relying only on the linear state estimate (i.e., estimation-centric approach), we use object observations (i.e., the measurements by object detector) to compute a virtual trajectory over the occlusion period to fix the error accumulation of filter parameters during the occlusion period. This allows more time steps to correct errors accumulated during occlusion. We name our method Observation-Centric SORT (OC-SORT). It remains Simple, Online, and Real-Time but improves robustness during occlusion and non-linear motion. Given off-the-shelf detections as input, OC-SORT runs at 700+ FPS on a single CPU. It achieves state-of-the-art on multiple datasets, including MOT17, MOT20, KITTI, head tracking, and especially DanceTrack where the object motion is highly non-linear. The code and models are available at https://github.com/noahcao/OC_SORT.

We propose a training recipe that treats charged-particle trajectory parameter regression on high-energy physics detector data as a sequence-modeling task. Kalman filters and linearized least-squares fits have been the classical standard approach for this task: they are optimal estimators for sparsely sampled linear-Gaussian data and are commonly used for trajectory parameter regression (fitting). The classical fitting techniques implemented for this domain reach a final precision of one part in 10^5 through detailed modeling of detector geometry, material, detection effects and precise numerical integration of the equations of motion through the detector's inhomogeneous magnetic field. With this study, we demonstrate that using a bidirectional gated linear recurrent encoder, one is able to reproduce the full precision of classical track fitting techniques. Using a custom kernel, we also achieve significantly higher throughput during GPU inference, compared to classical fitting software running on similarly priced multi-core CPU servers representing typically employed hardware. Such a speedup would lead to considerable cost savings for the pattern recognition at the Large Hadron Collider. To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end learned track fit to reach the full precision and, at the same time, offer the opportunity to reduce the computing costs.

Accurate modeling is crucial in many engineering and scientific applications, yet obtaining a reliable process model for complex systems is often challenging. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework, reservoir computing with unscented Kalman filtering (RCUKF), which integrates data-driven modeling via reservoir computing (RC) with Bayesian estimation through the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). The RC component learns the nonlinear system dynamics directly from data, serving as a surrogate process model in the UKF prediction step to generate state estimates in high-dimensional or chaotic regimes where nominal mathematical models may fail. Meanwhile, the UKF measurement update integrates real-time sensor data to correct potential drift in the data-driven model. We demonstrate RCUKF effectiveness on well-known benchmark problems and a real-time vehicle trajectory estimation task in a high-fidelity simulation environment.

Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When combined with inference-time guidance, they offer a promising route to high-dimensional non-Gaussian data assimilation (DA), the problem of combining forecasts with observations to estimate latent system states. Existing filters, however, condition on a fixed history and assimilate only the most recent observation, leaving them unable to revise past states when new observations arrive. Estimates then stay tethered to a history that later observations may contradict, and errors accumulate over the assimilation run. To this end, we introduce **DAWIS**, a unified DA method covering filtering, fixed-lag smoothing, and block smoothing within a single framework. DAWIS replaces the single flow time of a state-level prior with a multitask stochastic interpolant over a window of consecutive states, assigning a separate flow time to each. An assimilation cycle inverts the window to a vector of per-state turning points and regenerates it under observation guidance, with the turning points controlling how strongly each state is held fixed, revised, or generated from scratch. The same construction can also absorb the forecast into the assimilation cycle, removing the need for a separate forecasting model. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAWIS improves on both filtering and smoothing baselines under sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations. The code for DAWIS is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAWIS

We study the problem of identifying an anomalous subset of streams under correlated noise, motivated by monitoring and security in cyber-physical systems. This problem can be viewed as a form of combinatorial pure exploration, where each stream plays the role of an arm and measurements must be allocated sequentially under uncertainty. Existing combinatorial bandit and hypothesis testing methods typically assume independent observations and fail to exploit correlation for efficient measurement design. We propose ECC-AHT, an adaptive algorithm that selects continuous, constrained measurements to maximize Chernoff information between competing hypotheses, enabling active noise cancellation through differential sensing. ECC-AHT achieves optimal sample complexity guarantees and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both synthetic and real-world correlated environments. The code is available on https://github.com/VincentdeCristo/ECC-AHT

Controlling a robot based on physics-consistent dynamic models, such as Deep Lagrangian Networks (DeLaN), can improve the generalizability and interpretability of the resulting behavior. However, in complex environments, the number of objects to potentially interact with is vast, and their physical properties are often uncertain. This complexity makes it infeasible to employ a single global model. Therefore, we need to resort to online system identification of context-aware models that capture only the currently relevant aspects of the environment. While physical principles such as the conservation of energy may not hold across varying contexts, ensuring physical plausibility for any individual context-aware model can still be highly desirable, particularly when using it for receding horizon control methods such as model predictive control (MPC). Hence, in this work, we extend DeLaN to make it context-aware, combine it with a recurrent network for online system identification, and integrate it with an MPC for adaptive, physics-consistent control. We also combine DeLaN with a residual dynamics model to leverage the fact that a nominal model of the robot is typically available. We evaluate our method on a 7-DOF robot arm for trajectory tracking under varying loads. Our method reduces the end-effector tracking error by 39%, compared to a 21% improvement achieved by a baseline that uses an extended Kalman filter.

Linear attention is increasingly used in frontier language models for efficient long-context inference and constant-memory decoding. Its fixed-size recurrent memory, however, requires an online decision at each token: what to write and how strongly to overwrite existing associations before knowing which information future queries will require. Delta-rule models learn this strength from the current token embedding but do not track confidence in the memory estimate, preventing each write from adapting to accumulated evidence. To represent this uncertainty explicitly, we reformulate recurrent associative memory as a linear--Gaussian state-space model, for which the Kalman filter is the optimal recursive estimator, and introduce a new family of models, Kalman Delta Networks (KDNs). Within KDNs, the transition propagates both the memory state and its uncertainty, allowing the Kalman gain to weight each residual write by accumulated evidence and observation reliability. Under this formulation, Delta-style updates emerge as a special case that substitutes a token-wise isotropic surrogate for predictive covariance and omits covariance tracking. Exact tracking, however, entails a dense, state-dependent Riccati recursion that is poorly suited to GPU-parallel linear-attention scans. To address this issue, we introduce two scan-compatible KDN approximations. Diagonal KDN projects each one-step posterior onto the diagonal Gaussian family through online mean-field variational inference, whereas Isotropic KDN uses an isotropic approximation with a single uncertainty scalar per head. Their uncertainty recurrences are Mobius maps, enabling associative scans with logarithmic parallel depth. Across controlled pretraining at 750M and 1.3B parameters, KDN variants consistently improve perplexity and mean downstream accuracy over state-of-the-art linear-attention models.

SGD does not produce robust results on datasets with label noise. Because the gradients calculated according to the losses of the noisy samples cause the optimization process to go in the wrong direction. In this paper, as an alternative to SGD, we recommend using samples with loss less than a threshold value determined during the optimization process, instead of using all samples in the mini-batch. Our proposed method, Adaptive-k, aims to exclude label noise samples from the optimization process and make the process robust. On noisy datasets, we found that using a threshold-based approach, such as Adaptive-k, produces better results than using all samples or a fixed number of low-loss samples in the mini-batch. Based on our theoretical analysis and experimental results, we show that the Adaptive-k method is closest to the performance of the oracle, in which noisy samples are entirely removed from the dataset. Adaptive-k is a simple but effective method. It does not require prior knowledge of the noise ratio of the dataset, does not require additional model training, and does not increase training time significantly. The code for Adaptive-k is available at https://github.com/enesdedeoglu-TR/Adaptive-k

Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter, rely on Gaussian approximations that are violated for complex dynamics or observation operators. To address this limitation, we introduce DAISI, a scalable filtering algorithm built on flow-based generative models that enables flexible probabilistic inference using data-driven priors. The core idea is to use a stationary, pre-trained generative prior that first incorporates forecast information through a novel inverse-sampling step, before assimilating observations via guidance-based conditional sampling. This allows us to leverage any forecasting model as part of the DA pipeline without having to retrain or fine-tune the generative prior at each assimilation step. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAISI achieves accurate filtering results in regimes with sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations where traditional methods struggle. The code for DAISI is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAISI.

We introduce Adaptive Filter Attention (AFA), a novel attention mechanism that incorporates a learnable dynamics model directly into the computation of attention weights. Rather than comparing queries and keys directly, we model the input sequence as discrete observations of a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE). By imposing a linear dynamics model with simultaneously diagonalizable state matrices and noise covariances, we can make use of a closed-form solution to the differential Lyapunov equation to efficiently propagate pairwise uncertainties through the dynamics. Attention naturally arises as the maximum likelihood solution for this linear SDE, with attention weights corresponding to robust residual-based reweightings of the propagated pairwise precisions. Imposing an additional constraint on the state matrix's eigenvalues leads to a simplified variant with the same computational and memory complexity as standard attention. In the limit of vanishing dynamics and process noise, and using a small-angle approximation, we recover ordinary dot-product attention.

The global positioning system (GPS) has become an indispensable navigation method for field operations with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) in marine environments. However, GPS may not always be available outdoors because it is vulnerable to natural interference and malicious jamming attacks. Thus, an alternative navigation system is required when the use of GPS is restricted or prohibited. To this end, we present a novel method that utilizes an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to assist in localizing USVs in GNSS-restricted marine environments. In our approach, the UAV flies along the shoreline at a consistent altitude, continuously tracking and detecting the USV using a deep learning-based approach on camera images. Subsequently, triangulation techniques are applied to estimate the USV's position relative to the UAV, utilizing geometric information and datalink range from the UAV. We propose adjusting the UAV's camera angle based on the pixel error between the USV and the image center throughout the localization process to enhance accuracy. Additionally, visual measurements are integrated into an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for robust state estimation. To validate our proposed method, we utilize a USV equipped with onboard sensors and a UAV equipped with a camera. A heterogeneous robotic interface is established to facilitate communication between the USV and UAV. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through a series of experiments conducted during the ``Muhammad Bin Zayed International Robotic Challenge (MBZIRC-2024)'' in real marine environments, incorporating noisy measurements and ocean disturbances. The successful outcomes indicate the potential of our method to complement GPS for USV navigation.

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

One of the key challenges in deploying RL to real-world applications is to adapt to variations of unknown environment contexts, such as changing terrains in robotic tasks and fluctuated bandwidth in congestion control. Existing works on adaptation to unknown environment contexts either assume the contexts are the same for the whole episode or assume the context variables are Markovian. However, in many real-world applications, the environment context usually stays stable for a stochastic period and then changes in an abrupt and unpredictable manner within an episode, resulting in a segment structure, which existing works fail to address. To leverage the segment structure of piecewise stable context in real-world applications, in this paper, we propose a \textbf{Segmented Context Belief Augmented Deep~(SeCBAD)} RL method. Our method can jointly infer the belief distribution over latent context with the posterior over segment length and perform more accurate belief context inference with observed data within the current context segment. The inferred belief context can be leveraged to augment the state, leading to a policy that can adapt to abrupt variations in context. We demonstrate empirically that SeCBAD can infer context segment length accurately and outperform existing methods on a toy grid world environment and Mujuco tasks with piecewise-stable context.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) require scalable sampling algorithms to approximate posterior distributions over parameters. Existing stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) methods are highly sensitive to the choice of stepsize and adaptive variants such as pSGLD typically fail to sample the correct invariant measure without addition of a costly divergence correction term. In this work, we build on the recently proposed `SamAdams' framework for timestep adaptation (Leimkuhler, Lohmann, and Whalley 2025), introducing an adaptive scheme: SA-SGLD, which employs time rescaling to modulate the stepsize according to a monitored quantity (typically the local gradient norm). SA-SGLD can automatically shrink stepsizes in regions of high curvature and expand them in flatter regions, improving both stability and mixing without introducing bias. We show that our method can achieve more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD on high-curvature 2D toy examples and in image classification with BNNs using sharp priors.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

The prevailing inference framework for diffusion models formulates generation fundamentally as a problem of numerical integration. This perspective casts the model as an exact estimator, neglecting the inherent statistical uncertainty of the denoising process. In this work, we propose Forward-Process Aligned Diffusion prediction (DiFA), a training-free framework that reframes inference-time data prediction refinement as a sequential state estimation problem. Rather than reusing past outputs solely for numerical integration, DiFA treats iterative data predictions along the reverse trajectory as correlated observations to build a forward-aligned temporal consensus. Inspired by Kalman filtering, this consensus aggregates historical predictions according to structural consistency and noise-level compatibility. To counteract the over-smoothing tendency of temporal consensus, we introduce a deviation guidance mechanism to adaptively preserve residual details. Empirically, DiFA yields significant improvements on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet across the evaluated metrics, including FID, IS, and FD-DINOv2, demonstrating that aligning inference with the forward statistical structure substantially improves generative fidelity.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

We consider solving equality-constrained nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems. This class of problems appears widely in a variety of applications in machine learning and engineering, ranging from constrained deep neural networks, to optimal control, to PDE-constrained optimization. We develop an adaptive inexact Newton method for this problem class. In each iteration, we solve the Lagrangian Newton system inexactly via a randomized iterative sketching solver, and select a suitable stepsize by performing line search on an exact augmented Lagrangian merit function. The randomized solvers have advantages over deterministic linear system solvers by significantly reducing per-iteration flops complexity and storage cost, when equipped with suitable sketching matrices. Our method adaptively controls the accuracy of the randomized solver and the penalty parameters of the exact augmented Lagrangian, to ensure that the inexact Newton direction is a descent direction of the exact augmented Lagrangian. This allows us to establish a global almost sure convergence. We also show that a unit stepsize is admissible locally, so that our method exhibits a local linear convergence. Furthermore, we prove that the linear convergence can be strengthened to superlinear convergence if we gradually sharpen the adaptive accuracy condition on the randomized solver. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set, constrained logistic regression with data from LIBSVM, and a PDE-constrained problem.

This paper presents a novel guidance law for target tracking applications where the target motion model is unknown and sensor measurements are intermittent due to unknown environmental conditions and low measurement update rate. In this work, the target motion model is represented by a transformer neural network and trained by previous target position measurements. This transformer motion model serves as the prediction step in a particle filter for target state estimation and uncertainty quantification. The particle filter estimation uncertainty is utilized in the information-driven guidance law to compute a path for the mobile agent to travel to a position with maximum expected entropy reduction (EER). The computation of EER is performed in real-time by approximating the information gain from the predicted particle distributions relative to the current distribution. Simulation and hardware experiments are performed with a quadcopter agent and TurtleBot target to demonstrate that the presented guidance law outperforms two other baseline guidance methods.

Forecasting future trajectories of agents in complex traffic scenes requires reliable and efficient predictions for all agents in the scene. However, existing methods for trajectory prediction are either inefficient or sacrifice accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose ADAPT, a novel approach for jointly predicting the trajectories of all agents in the scene with dynamic weight learning. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both single-agent and multi-agent settings on the Argoverse and Interaction datasets, with a fraction of their computational overhead. We attribute the improvement in our performance: first, to the adaptive head augmenting the model capacity without increasing the model size; second, to our design choices in the endpoint-conditioned prediction, reinforced by gradient stopping. Our analyses show that ADAPT can focus on each agent with adaptive prediction, allowing for accurate predictions efficiently. https://KUIS-AI.github.io/adapt

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) by incorporating physical laws into the training process. However, the performance of PINNs is often hindered in real-world scenarios involving noisy observational data and missing physics, particularly in inverse problems. In this work, we propose an iterative multi-objective PINN ensemble Kalman filter (iPINNER) framework that improves the robustness and accuracy of PINNs in both forward and inverse problems by using the ensemble Kalman filter and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III (NSGA-III). Specifically, NSGA-III is used as a multi-objective optimizer that can generate various ensemble members of PINNs along the optimal Pareto front, while accounting the model uncertainty in the solution space. These ensemble members are then utilized within the EnKF to assimilate noisy observational data. The EnKF's analysis is subsequently used to refine the data loss component for retraining the PINNs, thereby iteratively updating their parameters. The iterative procedure generates improved solutions to the PDEs. The proposed method is tested on two benchmark problems: the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation and the time-fractional mixed diffusion-wave equation (TFMDWE). The numerical results show it outperforms standard PINNs in handling noisy data and missing physics.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

We introduce a formal active learning methodology for guiding the placement of Lagrangian observers to infer time-dependent vector fields -- a key task in oceanography, marine science, and ocean engineering -- using a physics-informed spatio-temporal Gaussian process surrogate model. The majority of existing placement campaigns either follow standard `space-filling' designs or relatively ad-hoc expert opinions. A key challenge to applying principled active learning in this setting is that Lagrangian observers are continuously advected through the vector field, so they make measurements at different locations and times. It is, therefore, important to consider the likely future trajectories of placed observers to account for the utility of candidate placement locations. To this end, we present BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories. We observe noticeable benefits of BALLAST-aided sequential observer placement strategies on both synthetic and high-fidelity ocean current models. In addition, we developed a novel GP inference method -- the Vanilla SPDE Exchange (VaSE) -- to boost the GP posterior sampling efficiency, which is also of independent interest.

Visual object tracking is essential to intelligent robots. Most existing approaches have ignored the online latency that can cause severe performance degradation during real-world processing. Especially for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), where robust tracking is more challenging and onboard computation is limited, the latency issue can be fatal. In this work, we present a simple framework for end-to-end latency-aware tracking, i.e., end-to-end predictive visual tracking (PVT++). Unlike existing solutions that naively append Kalman Filters after trackers, PVT++ can be jointly optimized, so that it takes not only motion information but can also leverage the rich visual knowledge in most pre-trained tracker models for robust prediction. Besides, to bridge the training-evaluation domain gap, we propose a relative motion factor, empowering PVT++ to generalize to the challenging and complex UAV tracking scenes. These careful designs have made the small-capacity lightweight PVT++ a widely effective solution. Additionally, this work presents an extended latency-aware evaluation benchmark for assessing an any-speed tracker in the online setting. Empirical results on a robotic platform from the aerial perspective show that PVT++ can achieve significant performance gain on various trackers and exhibit higher accuracy than prior solutions, largely mitigating the degradation brought by latency.

Human motion capture from monocular videos has made significant progress in recent years. However, modern approaches often produce temporal artifacts, e.g. in form of jittery motion and struggle to achieve smooth and physically plausible motions. Explicitly integrating physics, in form of internal forces and exterior torques, helps alleviating these artifacts. Current state-of-the-art approaches make use of an automatic PD controller to predict torques and reaction forces in order to re-simulate the input kinematics, i.e. the joint angles of a predefined skeleton. However, due to imperfect physical models, these methods often require simplifying assumptions and extensive preprocessing of the input kinematics to achieve good performance. To this end, we propose a novel method to selectively incorporate the physics models with the kinematics observations in an online setting, inspired by a neural Kalman-filtering approach. We develop a control loop as a meta-PD controller to predict internal joint torques and external reaction forces, followed by a physics-based motion simulation. A recurrent neural network is introduced to realize a Kalman filter that attentively balances the kinematics input and simulated motion, resulting in an optimal-state dynamics prediction. We show that this filtering step is crucial to provide an online supervision that helps balancing the shortcoming of the respective input motions, thus being important for not only capturing accurate global motion trajectories but also producing physically plausible human poses. The proposed approach excels in the physics-based human pose estimation task and demonstrates the physical plausibility of the predictive dynamics, compared to state of the art. The code is available on https://github.com/cuongle1206/OSDCap

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged recently as a promising application of deep neural networks to the numerical solution of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). However, it has been recognized that adaptive procedures are needed to force the neural network to fit accurately the stubborn spots in the solution of "stiff" PDEs. In this paper, we propose a fundamentally new way to train PINNs adaptively, where the adaptation weights are fully trainable and applied to each training point individually, so the neural network learns autonomously which regions of the solution are difficult and is forced to focus on them. The self-adaptation weights specify a soft multiplicative soft attention mask, which is reminiscent of similar mechanisms used in computer vision. The basic idea behind these SA-PINNs is to make the weights increase as the corresponding losses increase, which is accomplished by training the network to simultaneously minimize the losses and maximize the weights. In addition, we show how to build a continuous map of self-adaptive weights using Gaussian Process regression, which allows the use of stochastic gradient descent in problems where conventional gradient descent is not enough to produce accurate solutions. Finally, we derive the Neural Tangent Kernel matrix for SA-PINNs and use it to obtain a heuristic understanding of the effect of the self-adaptive weights on the dynamics of training in the limiting case of infinitely-wide PINNs, which suggests that SA-PINNs work by producing a smooth equalization of the eigenvalues of the NTK matrix corresponding to the different loss terms. In numerical experiments with several linear and nonlinear benchmark problems, the SA-PINN outperformed other state-of-the-art PINN algorithm in L2 error, while using a smaller number of training epochs.

This paper explores a pragmatic approach to multiple object tracking where the main focus is to associate objects efficiently for online and realtime applications. To this end, detection quality is identified as a key factor influencing tracking performance, where changing the detector can improve tracking by up to 18.9%. Despite only using a rudimentary combination of familiar techniques such as the Kalman Filter and Hungarian algorithm for the tracking components, this approach achieves an accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art online trackers. Furthermore, due to the simplicity of our tracking method, the tracker updates at a rate of 260 Hz which is over 20x faster than other state-of-the-art trackers.

Internet of Things (IoT) applications have opened up numerous possibilities to improve our lives. Most of the remote devices, part of the IoT network, such as smartphones, data loggers and wireless sensors are battery powered. It is vital to collect battery measurement data (Voltage or State-of-Charge (SOC)) from these remote devices. Presence of noise in these measurements restricts effective utilization of this dataset. This paper presents the application of Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to mitigate measurement noise in smartphone dataset. The simplicity of this technique makes it a constructive approach for noise removal. The datasets obtained after noise removal could be used to improve data-driven time series forecasting models which aid to accurately estimate critical battery parameters such as SOC. UKF was tested on noisy charge and discharge dataset of a smartphone. An overall Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0017 and 0.0010 was obtained for Voltage charge and discharge measurements. MSE for SOC charge and discharge data measurements were 0.0018 and 0.0010 respectively.

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.

State-space language models such as Mamba and gated linear attention (GLA) offer efficient alternatives to transformers due to their linear complexity and parallel training, but often lack the expressivity and robust state-tracking needed for complex reasoning. We address these limitations by reframing sequence modelling through a probabilistic lens, using Bayesian filters as a core primitive. While classical filters such as Kalman filters provide principled state estimation and uncertainty tracking, they are typically viewed as inherently sequential. We show that reparameterising the Kalman filter in information form enables its updates to be computed via an associative scan, allowing efficient parallel training. Building on this insight, we introduce the Kalman Linear Attention (KLA) layer, a neural sequence-modelling primitive that performs time-parallel probabilistic inference while maintaining explicit belief-state uncertainty. KLA offers strictly more expressive nonlinear updates and gating than GLA variants while retaining their computational advantages. On language modelling tasks, KLA matches or outperforms modern SSMs and GLAs across representative discrete token-manipulation and state-tracking benchmarks.

Diffusion models have recently achieved great success in the synthesis of high-quality images and videos. However, the existing denoising techniques in diffusion models are commonly based on step-by-step noise predictions, which suffers from high computation cost, resulting in a prohibitive latency for interactive applications. In this paper, we propose AdaptiveDiffusion to relieve this bottleneck by adaptively reducing the noise prediction steps during the denoising process. Our method considers the potential of skipping as many noise prediction steps as possible while keeping the final denoised results identical to the original full-step ones. Specifically, the skipping strategy is guided by the third-order latent difference that indicates the stability between timesteps during the denoising process, which benefits the reusing of previous noise prediction results. Extensive experiments on image and video diffusion models demonstrate that our method can significantly speed up the denoising process while generating identical results to the original process, achieving up to an average 2~5x speedup without quality degradation.

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end deep learning framework for real-time inertial attitude estimation using 6DoF IMU measurements. Inertial Measurement Units are widely used in various applications, including engineering and medical sciences. However, traditional filters used for attitude estimation suffer from poor generalization over different motion patterns and environmental disturbances. To address this problem, we propose two deep learning models that incorporate accelerometer and gyroscope readings as inputs. These models are designed to be generalized to different motion patterns, sampling rates, and environmental disturbances. Our models consist of convolutional neural network layers combined with Bi-Directional Long-Short Term Memory followed by a Fully Forward Neural Network to estimate the quaternion. We evaluate the proposed method on seven publicly available datasets, totaling more than 120 hours and 200 kilometers of IMU measurements. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and robustness. Additionally, our framework demonstrates superior generalization over various motion characteristics and sensor sampling rates. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive and reliable solution for real-time inertial attitude estimation using 6DoF IMUs, which has significant implications for a wide range of applications.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Existing motion planning methods often struggle with rapid-motion obstacles due to an insufficient understanding of environmental changes. To address this, we propose integrating motion planners with Doppler LiDARs, which provide not only ranging measurements but also instantaneous point velocities. However, this integration is nontrivial due to the requirements of high accuracy and high frequency. To this end, we introduce Doppler Planning Network (DPNet), which tracks and reacts to rapid obstacles via Doppler model-based learning. We first propose a Doppler Kalman neural network (D-KalmanNet) to track obstacle states under a partially observable Gaussian state space model. We then leverage the predicted motions of obstacles to construct a Doppler-tuned model predictive control (DT-MPC) framework for ego-motion planning, enabling runtime auto-tuning of controller parameters. These two modules allow DPNet to learn fast environmental changes from minimal data while remaining lightweight, achieving high frequency and high accuracy in both tracking and planning. Experiments on high-fidelity simulator and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of DPNet over extensive benchmark schemes. Code available at https://github.com/UUwei-zuo/DPNet

Multivariate long-term and efficient time series forecasting is a key requirement for a variety of practical applications, and there are complex interleaving time dynamics in time series data that require decomposition modeling. Traditional time series decomposition methods are single and rely on fixed rules, which are insufficient for mining the potential information of the series and adapting to the dynamic characteristics of complex series. On the other hand, the Transformer-based models for time series forecasting struggle to effectively model long sequences and intricate dynamic relationships due to their high computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we introduce KARMA, with an Adaptive Time Channel Decomposition module (ATCD) to dynamically extract trend and seasonal components. It further integrates a Hybrid Frequency-Time Decomposition module (HFTD) to further decompose Series into frequency-domain and time-domain. These components are coupled with multi-scale Mamba-based KarmaBlock to efficiently process global and local information in a coordinated manner. Experiments on eight real-world datasets from diverse domains well demonstrated that KARMA significantly outperforms mainstream baseline methods in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Code and full results are available at this repository: https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on frame-to-frame transition models. However, these models are fragile when observations are non-Markovian (when they form only a partial slice of a higher-dimensional latent state as in real-world weather data): they tend to accumulate errors over long horizons. At the same time, learned DA methods typically commit to a single regime, either filtering (nowcasting, real-time forecasting) or smoothing (retrospective reanalysis), which splits what should be a shared prior across application-specific pipelines. To address both issues, we introduce ForcingDAS, a unified and robust DA framework. Built on Diffusion Forcing with an independent noise level assigned to each frame, ForcingDAS learns a joint-trajectory prior instead of frame-to-frame transitions. This allows it to capture long-horizon temporal dependencies and reduce error accumulation. In addition, the same trained model spans the full filtering to smoothing spectrum at inference time. Specifically, nowcasting, fixed-lag smoothing, and batch reanalysis are selected through the inference schedule alone, without retraining. We evaluate ForcingDAS on 2D Navier-Stokes vorticity, precipitation nowcasting, and global atmospheric state estimation. Across all settings, a single model is competitive with or outperforms both learned and classical baselines that are specialized for individual regimes, with the largest gains observed on real-world weather benchmarks.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

We develop a multi-rate distributed unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear networks without a fusion center. Local continuous-discrete UKFs run on a common base grid, update at their own sampling instants, and exchange estimates within one-hop neighborhoods. Under a windowed collective-detectability condition, diffusion of information matrices gives uniformly bounded quotient covariances although no individual node need be observable. When the collectively invisible subspace is trivial and the statistical-linearization discrepancies satisfy an explicit coherence bound, the information weighted fused mean yields exponentially bounded mean-square errors without a contraction-mixing condition. This contrasts with the arithmetic diffusiojn mean, which requires one. A distributed H_{infty} variant uses a fixed attenuation penalty. A finite-prefix feasibility check and the one-hop detectability Gramian yield a uniform regularized-information margin - an explicit local-contraction-mixing condition then yields mean-square error boundedness. The developed methods are tested on a stochastic nonlinear benchmark and a three-inertia network in which every node misses at least one mode. Information diffusion is more accurate than five-round covariance-averaging consensus at one fifth of its communication. It remains stable under 3:2 multi-rate sampling, where the covariance-averaging consensus and the diffusion mean both diverge, and it keeps the quotient covariances bounded.

The prediction of ship trajectories is a growing field of study in artificial intelligence. Traditional methods rely on the use of LSTM, GRU networks, and even Transformer architectures for the prediction of spatio-temporal series. This study proposes a viable alternative for predicting these trajectories using only GNSS positions. It considers this spatio-temporal problem as a natural language processing problem. The latitude/longitude coordinates of AIS messages are transformed into cell identifiers using the H3 index. Thanks to the pseudo-octal representation, it becomes easier for language models to learn the spatial hierarchy of the H3 index. The method is compared with a classical Kalman filter, widely used in the maritime domain, and introduces the Fr\'echet distance as the main evaluation metric. We show that it is possible to predict ship trajectories quite precisely up to 8 hours with 30 minutes of context. We demonstrate that this alternative works well enough to predict trajectories worldwide.

The angular synchronization problem aims to accurately estimate (up to a constant additive phase) a set of unknown angles theta_1, dots, theta_nin[0, 2pi) from m noisy measurements of their offsets theta_i-theta_j ;mod ; 2pi. Applications include, for example, sensor network localization, phase retrieval, and distributed clock synchronization. An extension of the problem to the heterogeneous setting (dubbed k-synchronization) is to estimate k groups of angles simultaneously, given noisy observations (with unknown group assignment) from each group. Existing methods for angular synchronization usually perform poorly in high-noise regimes, which are common in applications. In this paper, we leverage neural networks for the angular synchronization problem, and its heterogeneous extension, by proposing GNNSync, a theoretically-grounded end-to-end trainable framework using directed graph neural networks. In addition, new loss functions are devised to encode synchronization objectives. Experimental results on extensive data sets demonstrate that GNNSync attains competitive, and often superior, performance against a comprehensive set of baselines for the angular synchronization problem and its extension, validating the robustness of GNNSync even at high noise levels.

Existing satellite video tracking methods often struggle with generalization, requiring scenario-specific training to achieve satisfactory performance, and are prone to track loss in the presence of occlusion. To address these challenges, we propose SatSAM2, a zero-shot satellite video tracker built on SAM2, designed to adapt foundation models to the remote sensing domain. SatSAM2 introduces two core modules: a Kalman Filter-based Constrained Motion Module (KFCMM) to exploit temporal motion cues and suppress drift, and a Motion-Constrained State Machine (MCSM) to regulate tracking states based on motion dynamics and reliability. To support large-scale evaluation, we propose MatrixCity Video Object Tracking (MVOT), a synthetic benchmark containing 1,500+ sequences and 157K annotated frames with diverse viewpoints, illumination, and occlusion conditions. Extensive experiments on two satellite tracking benchmarks and MVOT show that SatSAM2 outperforms both traditional and foundation model-based trackers, including SAM2 and its variants. Notably, on the OOTB dataset, SatSAM2 achieves a 5.84% AUC improvement over state-of-the-art methods. Our code and dataset will be publicly released to encourage further research.

Many Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) approaches exploit motion information to associate all the detected objects across frames. However, many methods that rely on filtering-based algorithms, such as the Kalman Filter, often work well in linear motion scenarios but struggle to accurately predict the locations of objects undergoing complex and non-linear movements. To tackle these scenarios, we propose a motion-based MOT approach with an enhanced temporal motion predictor, ETTrack. Specifically, the motion predictor integrates a transformer model and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to capture short-term and long-term motion patterns, and it predicts the future motion of individual objects based on the historical motion information. Additionally, we propose a novel Momentum Correction Loss function that provides additional information regarding the motion direction of objects during training. This allows the motion predictor rapidly adapt to motion variations and more accurately predict future motion. Our experimental results demonstrate that ETTrack achieves a competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art trackers on DanceTrack and SportsMOT, scoring 56.4% and 74.4% in HOTA metrics, respectively.

When solving inverse problems, it is increasingly popular to use pre-trained diffusion models as plug-and-play priors. This framework can accommodate different forward models without re-training while preserving the generative capability of diffusion models. Despite their success in many imaging inverse problems, most existing methods rely on privileged information such as derivative, pseudo-inverse, or full knowledge about the forward model. This reliance poses a substantial limitation that restricts their use in a wide range of problems where such information is unavailable, such as in many scientific applications. To address this issue, we propose Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) for diffusion models, a derivative-free approach that can solve inverse problems by only accessing forward model evaluations and a pre-trained diffusion model prior. We study the empirical effectiveness of our method across various inverse problems, including scientific settings such as inferring fluid flows and astronomical objects, which are highly non-linear inverse problems that often only permit black-box access to the forward model.

Unmanned vehicle navigation concerns estimating attitude, position, and linear velocity of the vehicle the six degrees of freedom (6 DoF). It has been known that the true navigation dynamics are highly nonlinear modeled on the Lie Group of SE_{2}(3). In this paper, a nonlinear filter for inertial navigation is proposed. The filter ensures systematic convergence of the error components starting from almost any initial condition. Also, the errors converge asymptotically to the origin. Experimental results validates the robustness of the proposed filter.

The field of sensor-based human activity recognition (HAR) mainly uses posture, motion and context data of Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) to identify daily activities. Despite the advancements in learning-based methods, it is challenging to perform information fusion from the temporal perspective due to the complexities in fusing heterogeneous sensor data and establishing long-term context correlations. This paper proposes a novel triple spectral fusion framework tailored for HAR. First, we develop an adaptive complementary filtering technique for noise suppression and organize each IMU's sensors into posture and motion modality nodes. Given that IMU nodes form a dynamic heterogeneous graph, we then apply adaptive filtering within the graph Fourier domain to merge both homogeneous and heterogeneous node information. Furthermore, an adaptive wavelet frequency selection approach is implemented to suppress context redundancy and shorten the length of features. This approach enhances both timestamp-based graph aggregation and the correlation of long-term contexts. Our framework uses adaptive filtering in the Fourier, graph Fourier, and wavelet domains, enabling effective multi-sensor fusion and context correlation. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our framework. Project page: https://github.com/crocodilegogogo/TSF-TPAMI2026.

We provide an algorithm for adaptive legged locomotion via online learning and model predictive control. The algorithm is composed of two interacting modules: model predictive control (MPC) and online learning of residual dynamics. The residual dynamics can represent modeling errors and external disturbances. We are motivated by the future of autonomy where quadrupeds will autonomously perform complex tasks despite real-world unknown uncertainty, such as unknown payload and uneven terrains. The algorithm uses random Fourier features to approximate the residual dynamics in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Then, it employs MPC based on the current learned model of the residual dynamics. The model is updated online in a self-supervised manner using least squares based on the data collected while controlling the quadruped. The algorithm enjoys sublinear dynamic regret, defined as the suboptimality against an optimal clairvoyant controller that knows how the residual dynamics. We validate our algorithm in Gazebo and MuJoCo simulations, where the quadruped aims to track reference trajectories. The Gazebo simulations include constant unknown external forces up to 12g, where g is the gravity vector, in flat terrain, slope terrain with 20degree inclination, and rough terrain with 0.25m height variation. The MuJoCo simulations include time-varying unknown disturbances with payload up to 8~kg and time-varying ground friction coefficients in flat terrain.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is crucial for improving both generation quality and alignment between the input condition and final output in diffusion models. While a high guidance scale is generally required to enhance these aspects, it also causes oversaturation and unrealistic artifacts. In this paper, we revisit the CFG update rule and introduce modifications to address this issue. We first decompose the update term in CFG into parallel and orthogonal components with respect to the conditional model prediction and observe that the parallel component primarily causes oversaturation, while the orthogonal component enhances image quality. Accordingly, we propose down-weighting the parallel component to achieve high-quality generations without oversaturation. Additionally, we draw a connection between CFG and gradient ascent and introduce a new rescaling and momentum method for the CFG update rule based on this insight. Our approach, termed adaptive projected guidance (APG), retains the quality-boosting advantages of CFG while enabling the use of higher guidance scales without oversaturation. APG is easy to implement and introduces practically no additional computational overhead to the sampling process. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that APG is compatible with various conditional diffusion models and samplers, leading to improved FID, recall, and saturation scores while maintaining precision comparable to CFG, making our method a superior plug-and-play alternative to standard classifier-free guidance.

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This failure mode, known as particle impoverishment, is especially severe under constrained computational budgets. To address this, we analyze the problem and identify two root causes: a lack of diversity in the particle set due to overconfident resampling and consequent inability to assess the potential of a reasoning path. We introduce Entropic Particle Filtering (ePF), an algorithm that integrates two new techniques to solve these issues. The first technique, Entropic Annealing (EA), directly mitigates particle impoverishment by monitoring search diversity via entropy; when diversity drops, it intervenes by dynamically annealing the resampling distribution to preserve exploration. The second, an enhancement called Look-ahead Modulation (LaM), adds a predictive guide to evaluate a state's potential based on its successors. On several challenging math benchmarks, ePF significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves up to a 50 % relative improvement in task reward. Together, these methods improve PF's resilience by balancing the exploration of diverse solution spaces with the exploitation of high-reward regions, ultimately leading to higher-quality solutions.

Autonomous platforms operating in the oceans require accurate navigation to successfully complete their mission. In this regard, the initial heading estimation accuracy and the time required to achieve it play a critical role. The initial heading is traditionally estimated by model-based approaches employing orientation decomposition. However, methods such as the dual vector decomposition and optimized attitude decomposition achieve satisfactory heading accuracy only after long alignment times. To allow rapid and accurate initial heading estimation, we propose an end-to-end, model-free, neural-assisted framework using the same inputs as the model-based approaches. Our proposed approach was trained and evaluated on real-world dataset captured by an autonomous surface vehicle. Our approach shows a significant accuracy improvement over the model-based approaches achieving an average absolute error improvement of 53%. Additionally, our proposed approach was able to reduce the alignment time by up to 67%. Thus, by employing our proposed approach, the reduction in alignment time and improved accuracy allow for a shorter deployment time of an autonomous platform and increased navigation accuracy during the mission.

Current state-of-the-art autonomous driving vehicles mainly rely on each individual sensor system to perform perception tasks. Such a framework's reliability could be limited by occlusion or sensor failure. To address this issue, more recent research proposes using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication to share perception information with others. However, most relevant works focus only on cooperative detection and leave cooperative tracking an underexplored research field. A few recent datasets, such as V2V4Real, provide 3D multi-object cooperative tracking benchmarks. However, their proposed methods mainly use cooperative detection results as input to a standard single-sensor Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithm. In their approach, the measurement uncertainty of different sensors from different connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) may not be properly estimated to utilize the theoretical optimality property of Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel 3D multi-object cooperative tracking algorithm for autonomous driving via a differentiable multi-sensor Kalman Filter. Our algorithm learns to estimate measurement uncertainty for each detection that can better utilize the theoretical property of Kalman Filter-based tracking methods. The experiment results show that our algorithm improves the tracking accuracy by 17% with only 0.037x communication costs compared with the state-of-the-art method in V2V4Real. Our code and videos are available at https://github.com/eddyhkchiu/DMSTrack/ and https://eddyhkchiu.github.io/dmstrack.github.io/ .

Multimodal learning systems often struggle in non-stationary environments due to concept drift, where changing data distributions can degrade performance. Modality-specific drifts and the lack of mechanisms for continuous, stable adaptation compound this challenge. This paper introduces LS-OGD, a novel adaptive control framework for robust multimodal learning in the presence of concept drift. LS-OGD uses an online controller that dynamically adjusts the model's learning rate and the fusion weights between different data modalities in response to detected drift and evolving prediction errors. We prove that under bounded drift conditions, the LS-OGD system's prediction error is uniformly ultimately bounded and converges to zero if the drift ceases. Additionally, we demonstrate that the adaptive fusion strategy effectively isolates and mitigates the impact of severe modality-specific drift, thereby ensuring system resilience and fault tolerance. These theoretical guarantees establish a principled foundation for developing reliable and continuously adapting multimodal learning systems.

As an adaptive method, Shampoo employs a structured second-moment estimation, and its effectiveness has attracted growing attention. Prior work has primarily analyzed its estimation scheme through the Frobenius norm. Motivated by the natural connection between the second moment and a covariance matrix, we propose studying Shampoo's estimation as covariance estimation through the lens of Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimization. This alternative perspective reveals a previously hidden limitation, motivating improvements to Shampoo's design. Building on this insight, we develop a practical estimation scheme, termed KL-Shampoo, that eliminates Shampoo's reliance on Adam for stabilization, thereby removing the additional memory overhead introduced by Adam. Preliminary results show that KL-Shampoo improves Shampoo's performance, enabling it to stabilize without Adam and even outperform its Adam-stabilized variant, SOAP, in neural network pretraining.

Machine learning methods can be a valuable aid in the scientific process, but they need to face challenging settings where data come from inhomogeneous experimental conditions. Recent meta-learning methods have made significant progress in multi-task learning, but they rely on black-box neural networks, resulting in high computational costs and limited interpretability. Leveraging the structure of the learning problem, we argue that multi-environment generalization can be achieved using a simpler learning model, with an affine structure with respect to the learning task. Crucially, we prove that this architecture can identify the physical parameters of the system, enabling interpreable learning. We demonstrate the competitive generalization performance and the low computational cost of our method by comparing it to state-of-the-art algorithms on physical systems, ranging from toy models to complex, non-analytical systems. The interpretability of our method is illustrated with original applications to physical-parameter-induced adaptation and to adaptive control.

We present a novel adaptive optimization algorithm for large-scale machine learning problems. Equipped with a low-cost estimate of local curvature and Lipschitz smoothness, our method dynamically adapts the search direction and step-size. The search direction contains gradient information preconditioned by a well-scaled diagonal preconditioning matrix that captures the local curvature information. Our methodology does not require the tedious task of learning rate tuning, as the learning rate is updated automatically without adding an extra hyperparameter. We provide convergence guarantees on a comprehensive collection of optimization problems, including convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems, in both deterministic and stochastic regimes. We also conduct an extensive empirical evaluation on standard machine learning problems, justifying our algorithm's versatility and demonstrating its strong performance compared to other start-of-the-art first-order and second-order methods.

The integration of discrete algorithmic components in deep learning architectures has numerous applications. Recently, Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE, Niepert, Minervini, and Franceschi 2021), a class of gradient estimators for discrete exponential family distributions, was proposed by combining implicit differentiation through perturbation with the path-wise gradient estimator. However, due to the finite difference approximation of the gradients, it is especially sensitive to the choice of the finite difference step size, which needs to be specified by the user. In this work, we present Adaptive IMLE (AIMLE), the first adaptive gradient estimator for complex discrete distributions: it adaptively identifies the target distribution for IMLE by trading off the density of gradient information with the degree of bias in the gradient estimates. We empirically evaluate our estimator on synthetic examples, as well as on Learning to Explain, Discrete Variational Auto-Encoders, and Neural Relational Inference tasks. In our experiments, we show that our adaptive gradient estimator can produce faithful estimates while requiring orders of magnitude fewer samples than other gradient estimators.

Long-horizon LLM multi-agent systems face reliability risks invisible to infrastructure monitoring. We propose the ADE Predictive Reliability Framework (ADE-PRF), enabling proactive health trajectory prediction from passive degradation detection. ADE-PRF aggregates 20 heterogeneous signals across five layers into a Trust Margin (TM) metric (39.2-point dynamic range). Triple-method parallel prediction enables 8-hour forecasts: the Exponential method achieves MAE=1.228, Direction Accuracy=76.8%, with 99.65% within +/-10-point tolerance. Production validation spans 380,227 predictions and 280,579 validations across six agent profiles over 15 continuous days, plus seven sandbox-controlled experiments. Key findings include detection of "false prosperity" -- degradation concealed by normal surface metrics -- and immediate TM coupling with ground-truth states upon ADE plugin integration, with 16/20 factors relying on ADE-collected data. Exponential consistently outperforms Kalman. ADE-PRF provides among the earliest reliability quantification with forward-looking warnings for production LLM agents.

Video Diffusion Models (VDMs) is constrained by immense computational costs. While offline calibration-based acceleration suffers from calibration data dependency, prohibitive calibration duration, and susceptibility to distribution shifts, offline calibration-free methods eliminate these hurdles. However, since they rely on instantaneous zero-order approximations where the mapping between input and output differences varies in real-time, they are susceptible to observational noise and ignore the intrinsic momentum within the diffusion trajectory. In this paper, we propose NaviCache, a plug-and-play test-time self-calibration method re-conceptualizing feature evolution as an Inertial Navigation System (INS) problem. NaviCache bridges the fundamental domain gap and the non-stationary nature of diffusion by modeling the relative coupling between input and output variations. We introduce a dual-state estimation architecture that adaptively tracks the feature change ratio and its latent drift, initialized via a specialized Initial Alignment phase. By integrating a time-dependent noise schedule with an uncertainty-aware Measurement Update mechanism, NaviCache provides a theoretically grounded mechanism for error-bounded computation skipping. Extensive experiments on the HunyuanVideo, Wan, and Open-Sora series demonstrate that NaviCache exhibits more accurate error judgment for computation skipping and achieves outstanding comprehensive performance.

This paper studies active regression for single-index models under general ell_p-loss with an unknown 1-Lipschitz link function f, formulated as min_{f,x} |f(Ax)-b|_p^p with full access to A but coordinate-query access to b. Prior work established upper bounds for known link functions for all pgeq 1 and for unknown link functions only in the p=2 case, together with lower bounds for pleq 2. This work addresses the more challenging setting of unknown link functions and general p geq 1. A non-adaptive sampling algorithm is presented that achieves a (1+ε)-approximation using O(d^{p/2vee 1}/ε^{pvee 2}polylog(n/ε)) queries. Nearly tight lower bounds are also established for p>2. These results close much of the remaining gap in active ell_p-regression for single-index models.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Differentiable matching layers and residual connection paradigms, often implemented via entropy-regularized Optimal Transport (OT), serve as critical mechanisms in structural prediction and architectural scaling. However, recovering discrete permutations or maintaining identity mappings via annealing εto 0 is notoriously unstable. In this work, we identify a fundamental mechanism for this failure: Premature Mode Collapse. By analyzing the non-normal dynamics of the Sinkhorn fixed-point map, we reveal a theoretical thermodynamic speed limit: standard exponential cooling outpaces the contraction rate of the inference operator, which degrades as O(1/ε). To address this, we propose Efficient Piecewise Hybrid Adaptive Stability Control (EPH-ASC), an adaptive scheduling algorithm that monitors the stability of the inference process. We demonstrate that EPH-ASC is essential for stabilizing Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) during large-scale training on the FineWeb-Edu dataset, effectively preventing late-stage gradient explosions by enforcing a linear stability law.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Most existing video anomaly detectors rely solely on RGB frames, which lack the temporal resolution needed to capture abrupt or transient motion cues, key indicators of anomalous events. To address this limitation, we propose Image-Event Fusion for Video Anomaly Detection (IEF-VAD), a framework that synthesizes event representations directly from RGB videos and fuses them with image features through a principled, uncertainty-aware process. The system (i) models heavy-tailed sensor noise with a Student`s-t likelihood, deriving value-level inverse-variance weights via a Laplace approximation; (ii) applies Kalman-style frame-wise updates to balance modalities over time; and (iii) iteratively refines the fused latent state to erase residual cross-modal noise. Without any dedicated event sensor or frame-level labels, IEF-VAD sets a new state of the art across multiple real-world anomaly detection benchmarks. These findings highlight the utility of synthetic event representations in emphasizing motion cues that are often underrepresented in RGB frames, enabling accurate and robust video understanding across diverse applications without requiring dedicated event sensors. Code and models are available at https://github.com/EavnJeong/IEF-VAD.

We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.

Kronecker adapters have emerged as a promising approach for fine-tuning large-scale models, enabling high-rank updates through tunable component structures. However, existing work largely treats the component structure as a fixed or heuristic design choice, leaving the dimensions and number of Kronecker components underexplored. In this paper, we identify component structure as a key factor governing the capacity of Kronecker adapters. We perform a fine-grained analysis of both the dimensions and number of Kronecker components. In particular, we show that the alignment between Kronecker adapters and full fine-tuning depends on component configurations. Guided by these insights, we propose Component Designed Kronecker Adapters (CDKA). We further provide parameter-budget-aware configuration guidelines and a tailored training stabilization strategy for practical deployment. Experiments across various architectures and modalities demonstrate the effectiveness of CDKA. Code is available at https://github.com/rainstonee/CDKA.

Multiple object tracking (MOT) technology has made significant progress in terrestrial applications, but underwater tracking scenarios remain underexplored despite their importance to marine ecology and aquaculture. We present Multiple Fish Tracking Dataset 2025 (MFT25), the first comprehensive dataset specifically designed for underwater multiple fish tracking, featuring 15 diverse video sequences with 408,578 meticulously annotated bounding boxes across 48,066 frames. Our dataset captures various underwater environments, fish species, and challenging conditions including occlusions, similar appearances, and erratic motion patterns. Additionally, we introduce Scale-aware and Unscented Tracker (SU-T), a specialized tracking framework featuring an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) optimized for non-linear fish swimming patterns and a novel Fish-Intersection-over-Union (FishIoU) matching that accounts for the unique morphological characteristics of aquatic species. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our SU-T baseline achieves state-of-the-art performance on MFT25, with 34.1 HOTA and 44.6 IDF1, while revealing fundamental differences between fish tracking and terrestrial object tracking scenarios. MFT25 establishes a robust foundation for advancing research in underwater tracking systems with important applications in marine biology, aquaculture monitoring, and ecological conservation. The dataset and codes are released at https://vranlee.github.io/SU-T/.

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) is a derivative-free, ensemble-based method for inverse and optimization problems. Its continuous-time formulation can be interpreted as an interacting particle system driven by a Kalman-type preconditioned descent direction. A well-known limitation of this dynamics is the possible premature collapse of the covariance of the ensemble, which makes the method sensitive to the initial ensemble. We introduce a second-order particle system in which the particles evolve according to an inertial dynamics. The model combines a Kalman-type relaxation force with damping, attraction towards the ensemble mean, and a short-range repulsive interaction designed to counteract ensemble collapse. The resulting dynamics can be interpreted as a heavy-ball reformulation of continuous-time EKI enriched by competing attractive and repulsive mechanisms. For linear inverse problems, we analyze the induced mean and fluctuation dynamics and identify a parameter regime in which fully collapsed configurations are linearly unstable. We further characterize asymptotic equilibria through a constrained optimality condition on the subspace retained by the limiting ensemble covariance and derive an exponential decay estimate. Numerical experiments illustrate the effect of inertia and repulsion on the ensemble dynamics and compare the proposed second-order method with first-order EKI-type

We propose the Fourier Adaptive Lite Diffusion Architecture (FALDA), a novel probabilistic framework for time series forecasting. First, we introduce the Diffusion Model for Residual Regression (DMRR) framework, which unifies diffusion-based probabilistic regression methods. Within this framework, FALDA leverages Fourier-based decomposition to incorporate a component-specific architecture, enabling tailored modeling of individual temporal components. A conditional diffusion model is utilized to estimate the future noise term, while our proposed lightweight denoiser, DEMA (Decomposition MLP with AdaLN), conditions on the historical noise term to enhance denoising performance. Through mathematical analysis and empirical validation, we demonstrate that FALDA effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty, allowing probabilistic learning to primarily focus on aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on six real-world benchmarks demonstrate that FALDA consistently outperforms existing probabilistic forecasting approaches across most datasets for long-term time series forecasting while achieving enhanced computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. Notably, FALDA also achieves superior overall performance compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) point forecasting approaches, with improvements of up to 9%.

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Satellite image inpainting is a crucial task in remote sensing, where accurately restoring missing or occluded regions is essential for robust image analysis. In this paper, we propose KAO, a novel framework that utilizes Kernel-Adaptive Optimization within diffusion models for satellite image inpainting. KAO is specifically designed to address the challenges posed by very high-resolution (VHR) satellite datasets, such as DeepGlobe and the Massachusetts Roads Dataset. Unlike existing methods that rely on preconditioned models requiring extensive retraining or postconditioned models with significant computational overhead, KAO introduces a Latent Space Conditioning approach, optimizing a compact latent space to achieve efficient and accurate inpainting. Furthermore, we incorporate Explicit Propagation into the diffusion process, facilitating forward-backward fusion, which improves the stability and precision of the method. Experimental results demonstrate that KAO sets a new benchmark for VHR satellite image restoration, providing a scalable, high-performance solution that balances the efficiency of preconditioned models with the flexibility of postconditioned models.

Adaptive optimization is critical in federated learning, where enabling adaptivity on both the server and client sides has proven essential for achieving optimal performance. However, the scalability of such jointly adaptive systems is often hindered by resource limitations in communication and memory. In this paper, we introduce a class of efficient adaptive algorithms, named FedAda^2 and its enhanced version FedAda^2++, designed specifically for large-scale, cross-device federated environments. FedAda^2 optimizes communication efficiency by avoiding the transfer of preconditioners between the server and clients. Additionally, FedAda^2++ extends this approach by incorporating memory-efficient adaptive optimizers on the client side, further reducing on-device memory usage. Theoretically, we demonstrate that FedAda^2 and FedAda^2++ achieve the same convergence rates for general, non-convex objectives as its more resource-intensive counterparts that directly integrate joint adaptivity. Extensive empirical evaluations on image and text datasets demonstrate both the advantages of joint adaptivity and the effectiveness of FedAda^2/FedAda^2++.

The k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classification approach is conceptually simple - yet widely applied since it often performs well in practical applications. However, using a global constant k does not always provide an optimal solution, e.g., for datasets with an irregular density distribution of data points. This paper proposes an adaptive kNN classifier where k is chosen dynamically for each instance (point) to be classified, such that the expected accuracy of classification is maximized. We define the expected accuracy as the accuracy of a set of structurally similar observations. An arbitrary similarity function can be used to find these observations. We introduce and evaluate different similarity functions. For the evaluation, we use five different classification tasks based on geo-spatial data. Each classification task consists of (tens of) thousands of items. We demonstrate, that the presented expected accuracy measures can be a good estimator for kNN performance, and the proposed adaptive kNN classifier outperforms common kNN and previously introduced adaptive kNN algorithms. Also, we show that the range of considered k can be significantly reduced to speed up the algorithm without negative influence on classification accuracy.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Human motion forecasters are increasingly accurate and fast, but reliable deployment requires uncertainty estimates that are structured, calibrated, and efficient. Bayesian and ensemble-based uncertainty estimates often require repeated stochastic inference [15, 26], while conformal calibration alone does not provide an epistemic signal or preserve trajectory covariance structure [14, 50]. We introduce SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration), a Bayesian-conformal uncertainty layer for motion forecasting. A deterministic MLP backbone predicts the future mean, and a conjugate Bayesian last layer converts time-domain feature leverage into an analytic horizon-wise epistemic scale κ_t(x). This scale inflates a graph-temporal Gaussian covariance without changing its correlation structure, and split conformal calibration produces 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite-sample validity under exchangeability. The key interface is the structured factorization κ_t(x)Σ_{str,t}(x), which injects feature-space epistemic uncertainty into trajectory densities without Monte Carlo sampling. Across nine dataset-protocol blocks and deterministic, multimodal, and calibration baselines, SPARC ranks first on NLL and on the combined MPJPE+NLL criterion while retaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes. Ranking windows by κ separates high-error cases, making the scale usable as a lightweight risk monitor.

Fast changing states or volatile environments pose a significant challenge to online optimization, which needs to perform rapid adaptation under limited observation. In this paper, we give query and regret optimal bandit algorithms under the strict notion of strongly adaptive regret, which measures the maximum regret over any contiguous interval I. Due to its worst-case nature, there is an almost-linear Omega(|I|^{1-epsilon}) regret lower bound, when only one query per round is allowed [Daniely el al, ICML 2015]. Surprisingly, with just two queries per round, we give Strongly Adaptive Bandit Learner (StABL) that achieves O(n|I|) adaptive regret for multi-armed bandits with n arms. The bound is tight and cannot be improved in general. Our algorithm leverages a multiplicative update scheme of varying stepsizes and a carefully chosen observation distribution to control the variance. Furthermore, we extend our results and provide optimal algorithms in the bandit convex optimization setting. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms under volatile environments and for downstream tasks, such as algorithm selection for hyperparameter optimization.

RANSAC-based algorithms are the standard techniques for robust estimation in computer vision. These algorithms are iterative and computationally expensive; they alternate between random sampling of data, computing hypotheses, and running inlier counting. Many authors tried different approaches to improve efficiency. One of the major improvements is having a guided sampling, letting the RANSAC cycle stop sooner. This paper presents a new adaptive sampling process for RANSAC. Previous methods either assume no prior information about the inlier/outlier classification of data points or use some previously computed scores in the sampling. In this paper, we derive a dynamic Bayesian network that updates individual data points' inlier scores while iterating RANSAC. At each iteration, we apply weighted sampling using the updated scores. Our method works with or without prior data point scorings. In addition, we use the updated inlier/outlier scoring for deriving a new stopping criterion for the RANSAC loop. We test our method in multiple real-world datasets for several applications and obtain state-of-the-art results. Our method outperforms the baselines in accuracy while needing less computational time.

Deep learning-based speech enhancement methods have significantly improved speech quality and intelligibility. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been proven to be essential components of many high-performance models. In this paper, we introduce adaptive convolution, an efficient and versatile convolutional module that enhances the model's capability to adaptively represent speech signals. Adaptive convolution performs frame-wise causal dynamic convolution, generating time-varying kernels for each frame by assembling multiple parallel candidate kernels. A lightweight attention mechanism is proposed for adaptive convolution, leveraging both current and historical information to assign adaptive weights to each candidate kernel. This enables the convolution operation to adapt to frame-level speech spectral features, leading to more efficient extraction and reconstruction. We integrate adaptive convolution into various CNN-based models, highlighting its generalizability. Experimental results demonstrate that adaptive convolution significantly improves the performance with negligible increases in computational complexity, especially for lightweight models. Moreover, we present an intuitive analysis revealing a strong correlation between kernel selection and signal characteristics. Furthermore, we propose the adaptive convolutional recurrent network (AdaptCRN), an ultra-lightweight model that incorporates adaptive convolution and an efficient encoder-decoder design, achieving superior performance compared to models with similar or even higher computational costs.

Real-world datasets often exhibit temporal dynamics characterized by evolving data distributions. Disregarding this phenomenon, commonly referred to as concept drift, can significantly diminish a model's predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the presence of hyperparameters in online models exacerbates this issue. These parameters are typically fixed and cannot be dynamically adjusted by the user in response to the evolving data distribution. Gaussian Process (GP) models offer powerful non-parametric regression capabilities with uncertainty quantification, making them ideal for modeling complex data relationships in an online setting. However, conventional online GP methods face several critical limitations, including a lack of drift-awareness, reliance on fixed hyperparameters, vulnerability to data snooping, absence of a principled decay mechanism, and memory inefficiencies. In response, we propose DAO-GP (Drift-Aware Online Gaussian Process), a novel, fully adaptive, hyperparameter-free, decayed, and sparse non-linear regression model. DAO-GP features a built-in drift detection and adaptation mechanism that dynamically adjusts model behavior based on the severity of drift. Extensive empirical evaluations confirm DAO-GP's robustness across stationary conditions, diverse drift types (abrupt, incremental, gradual), and varied data characteristics. Analyses demonstrate its dynamic adaptation, efficient in-memory and decay-based management, and evolving inducing points. Compared with state-of-the-art parametric and non-parametric models, DAO-GP consistently achieves superior or competitive performance, establishing it as a drift-resilient solution for online non-linear regression.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Despite the success of adaptive time-stepping in ODE simulation, it has so far seen few applications for Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). To simulate SDEs adaptively, methods such as the Virtual Brownian Tree (VBT) have been developed, which can generate Brownian motion (BM) non-chronologically. However, in most applications, knowing only the values of Brownian motion is not enough to achieve a high order of convergence; for that, we must compute time-integrals of BM such as int_s^t W_r , dr. With the aim of using high order SDE solvers adaptively, we extend the VBT to generate these integrals of BM in addition to the Brownian increments. A JAX-based implementation of our construction is included in the popular Diffrax library (https://github.com/patrick-kidger/diffrax). Since the entire Brownian path produced by VBT is uniquely determined by a single PRNG seed, previously generated samples need not be stored, which results in a constant memory footprint and enables experiment repeatability and strong error estimation. Based on binary search, the VBT's time complexity is logarithmic in the tolerance parameter varepsilon. Unlike the original VBT algorithm, which was only precise at some dyadic times, we prove that our construction exactly matches the joint distribution of the Brownian motion and its time integrals at any query times, provided they are at least varepsilon apart. We present two applications of adaptive high order solvers enabled by our new VBT. Using adaptive solvers to simulate a high-volatility CIR model, we achieve more than twice the convergence order of constant stepping. We apply an adaptive third order underdamped or kinetic Langevin solver to an MCMC problem, where our approach outperforms the No U-Turn Sampler, while using only a tenth of its function evaluations.